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The problem with the "Finlandisation" thesis is that the EU (and, arguably, the US) were unable to transgress that frontier : to explicitly bargain with Russia over the heads of the Ukrainian government.

Putin has that singular advantage, that he is not bound by any notions of international legality, and decided to create facts on the ground (he has made appallingly poor use of that advantage)

Currently, the Ukrainian army is pushing the Russians back to the border in the Kharkiv region, but losing ground, with occasional counter-attacks, in the Donbass
A Georgian think-tank updates every few days, using open sources

I've no idea how long they can hold out, or whether better hardware can give them the advantage.
The closest analogy I can think of to the current situation is the Iran-Iraq war, which lasted for eight years.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu May 12th, 2022 at 08:14:05 AM EST
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