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That is their nightmare scenario and the word is they are hoping for a "win" on the Protocol to enable them to get the Secretary of State to call a new election where they would hope to emerge as the largest party and beat SF to the First Minister role.
That is an unlikely but not a totally unrealistic hope in that it was the TUV improved performance of 8% in the last election which they blame for at least some of their seat loses.
SF would certainly not refuse to nominate a First Minister as that would be a historic first for a nationalist in N. Ireland and of extreme symbolic if not practical significance.
However, if the DUP say they will allow the Assembly to meet by helping to elect a Speaker but will NOT allow the formation of an Executive then SF would be in their rights to not allow the election of a Speaker on the grounds that:
It would obviously be very difficult for the Irish government to afford a subvention of that order, especially if there was significant loyalist unrest which hindered economic growth. Much of the Dublin establishment is actually against a united Ireland for that reason. However many independent analysts argue that the true cost of a United Ireland would be much less and could be absorbed over time as the all Ireland economy grows. Index of Frank's Diaries
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