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Elections don't determine the constitutional fate of N. Ireland. Only a referendum under the terms of the GFA can do that, and calling one is entirely in the gift of the UK government. Given N. Ireland currently costs the UK c. €10-15 Billion per annum, it is probably only a matter of time before some British government, in extreme financial difficulty, decides to cut that subvention. N. Ireland would completely collapse in that scenario - its GDP is only €50 Billion and its public sector c. €15 Billion.

It would obviously be very difficult for the Irish government to afford a subvention of that order, especially if there was significant loyalist unrest which hindered economic growth. Much of the Dublin establishment is actually against a united Ireland for that reason. However many independent analysts argue that the true cost of a United Ireland would be much less and could be absorbed over time as the all Ireland economy grows.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 13th, 2022 at 08:07:01 PM EST
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