If I understand things correctly, very few seats are elected after the first round, and most are decided in the second round. However, the critical issue thing about the first round is the shaping of the arena for the second round. And a candidate needs to be in top two or have more then 12,5% to enter the second round.

So, are the total result roughly well spread? If so with this first round result, NUPES and LREM should be in the second round in pretty much all constituencies, RN in almost as many and LR in about half.

Then it comes down to participation. I notice that in 1981, 1988 and 1997 the participation rate was both higher in the second round and PS won. So can NUPES mobilise and win?