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There is a mechanical effect of the two-round system : in each district (or nearly) where a Macronist is qualified for the second round, they are the "centrist" option. i.e. if up against a RN or even Républicain candidate, they will benefit from a certain number of votes from electors of the eliminated left-wing candidate, in order to shut out the right winger.

Likewise, if it's Macronist vs NUPES, the electors of the eliminated candidates of the right and the far right are most likely to vote Macronist.

UNLESS... Mélenchon's rhetoric tends to make the second round a referendum against Macron. It remains to be seen how many RN voters buy that.

And, again, when more than half of electors didn't vote in the first round, it all depends on which side motivates its electorate.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Jun 15th, 2022 at 10:24:52 AM EST
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