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  • NUPES 133 sièges
  • Divers gauche 20 sièges
  • Divers 1 siège
  • Régionalistes 10 sièges
  • Divers Centre 4 sièges
  • Majorité présidentielle 245 sièges
  • LR, UDI, Divers droite 74 sièges
  • Droite souverainiste 1 siège
  • RN 89 sièges

The NUPES estimate deflated as the evening went on. Overall, a disappointment. I await with mild interest the explanations as to why the predictions were so far off.

I've had a look at the numbers in various districts, to understand how the transfers went between rounds.

The big problem for the NUPES was the lack of reservoirs of votes in the second round. Very often NUPES was first in the first round, but whichever right-wing opponent (LREM, R, RN...) made it to the second round had the electors of all the eliminated right-wing candidates, as long as they were polite...

Given that pretty much the same people turned out in both rounds (less than 50% of registered voters, nationally, and slightly less in the 2nd round), it's possible to make some educated guesses.  

Typically, LREM and R candidates picked up each other's electors in the second round, and part of the RN voters.
All the NUPES candidates increased their first-round scores substantially. Typically I can only make their scores work if I add in about half of the RN voters.

This was my working hypothesis, see my earlier posts. What is confusing me is why the polling company prediction models expected more seats for NUPES. They must have assumed a larger share of RN transfers than I did.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Jun 20th, 2022 at 02:43:05 PM EST

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