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Polling for legislative elections in France is difficult, because of the 577 different constituencies. The trend that emerged though is that an absolute majority (289) for Macron's party is no done deal.

Macron could lose absolute majority in parliament, poll finds Politico.eu

French President Emmanuel Macron could have a hard time eking out an absolute majority in parliament in the upcoming legislative elections as support for rival left-wing groups edges up, according to fresh polls.

Parliamentary elections -- the upcoming one is slated for June 12 and 19 -- are typically difficult to predict because they consist of 577 distinct local races. But an Ifop poll published Tuesday has Macron's camp worried, as it projects them winning 250 to 290 seats, with the majority threshold at 289. Even worse, the numbers have been trending down since late May, when Ifop had the president's allies landing between 275 and 310 seats.

Other polling firms show the president's camp faring better. POLITICO's Poll of Polls projects a likely range of 275 to 318 seats, but the trend here is also pointing downward over the past weeks.

A scenario in which the presidential camp remains the biggest group in parliament but gets less than 289 seats could potentially gridlock the National Assembly, as it would lack a majority with a clear agenda.

Unlike other European countries, there is no culture of coalitions among French pols, since a dominant party usually has a majority of seats; NUPES is actually one of the few examples.

by Bernard (bernard) on Thu Jun 9th, 2022 at 06:12:41 PM EST
Latest polling before the embargo (yesterday at 23:59): the NUPES slightly ahead of Macron's LREM, but, as I wrote in the diary, it does not mean it will ultimately gain a majority of seats (289) next Sunday, due to the peculiarities of the FPTP system.
by Bernard (bernard) on Sat Jun 11th, 2022 at 12:18:55 PM EST
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