Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Um. It's hard. But I will try to give my impression of the big picture, which will probably change this evening...

Citizens in France have, in a large proportion,  forgotten or never learned that Left/Right is a thing.

The current three blocs, for me, are Left, Right, and Don't Know but Angry.

The third group vote Le Pen.
Reconquête (Zemmour), les Républicains, and the Macronists are three flavours of Right. The fact that they are currently running against each other is useful.

The left is united. (Well, there are numerous dissidents, mostly from the PS, who refuse to admit that they are no longer the navel of the world ; but mostly, they stand in districts which are safe for the left, and may have a useful bridging function for electors who are reluctant to vote further left in the first round.)

The third bloc are mostly people who have no political references to analyse the world with. They are more racist than average, but is not necessarily their primary motivation in voting RN. They are angry about a lot of things, some of which are indeed the responsibility of the current government. (There is also an ideological minority, which includes all of the party's activists, who are way more extreme in their views than the party's current program; but most of these have bled away to Zemmour, whose electorate is largely bourgeois).
A large part of the motivation of Mélenchon's populist positioning over the past decade has been to offer those third-bloc voters a way out of their dead end, and into the political spectrum.

This effect will be crucial to many second-round run-offs between Macronists and NUPES.  And to any possibility of a left majority,  not that I can see that.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Jun 12th, 2022 at 08:27:29 AM EST
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