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I'm a little bit disappointed, but only because of the wild hopes of the past few weeks. This is a great result for the left, considering where it's come from. And it can be amplified by mobilising the very large number of Mélenchon voters from the presidential election who didn't bother to vote today.

Differential abstemtion is often a key to an election. Today it seems to have been evenly spread between the left and various shades of right.

Team Macron (slightly) and Team Le Pen under-performed with respect to the presidential results, which is a fair indication of the dynamics of the (non-)campaign.

Hyperlocal results :

  • My own district is mostly bourgeois inner-city Lyon, and has never elected an MP from the left. The Green candidate will fight the second round against a sitting  Macronist MP, and presumably lose it, unless there is a major mobilisation of NUPES voters. About 55% of electors voted, better than the terrible national average, but leaving a considerable reservoir of electors who voted for Mélenchon but didn't turn out today. So... differential abstention, who knows?
  • The neighbouring district that I have been pasting posters in for the last few weeks has always been on the left for the past hundred years... the candidate "parachuted" in by Nupes, who happens to be Mélenchon's son in law, will have an easy second round, having got 40% today (and numerous left-wing independents eliminated).


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 12th, 2022 at 09:29:30 PM EST
If I understand things correctly, very few seats are elected after the first round, and most are decided in the second round. However, the critical issue thing about the first round is the shaping of the arena for the second round. And a candidate needs to be in top two or have more then 12,5% to enter the second round.

So, are the total result roughly well spread? If so with this first round result, NUPES and LREM should be in the second round in pretty much all constituencies, RN in almost as many and LR in about half.

Then it comes down to participation. I notice that in 1981, 1988 and 1997 the participation rate was both higher in the second round and PS won. So can NUPES mobilise and win?

by fjallstrom on Mon Jun 13th, 2022 at 07:31:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
First question : There is a rule about winning in the first round, you need not only to get more than 50% but also more than (?) 25% of registered voters.
I saw several candidates who got more than 50%, but all are going to the 2nd round, because of less than 50% turnout in most districts.
Just checked : 4 NUPES and one LREM elected in the first round. Historically there are many more.

Second question : The results are very uneven geographically. In the west, the most common second round will be LREM/NUPES. In the north-east and south-east, RN/Republicains is quite common.
Scroll down to the map, highlighting who came first by district.

Ah... I just saw that in the end, the Macronists just edged NUPES nationally : 25,75% against 25,66%

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Jun 13th, 2022 at 10:45:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Adding to eurogreen's:

According to Le Monde, only four candidates were elected at the first round in 2017, but 36 in 2012 and 110 in 2007. Why so? Two things:

Up until the 2010's, the political landscape was essentially the PS and allies (Greens & Communists) on one side and the mainstream right (UMP, now LR) on the other. The Extreme right didn't have that much weight during parliamentary elections and fewer Front National candidates could qualify for the second round, often in a "triangular", with a PS and a UMP candidate. Now, the RN (FN's new name) gets a much greater share of the vote and fewer candidates manage to clear the 50% mark on the first round.

The high abstention is also playing a part: to win in the first round, a candidate must also get a number of votes at least equal to 25% of the registered voters. Yesterday, nine candidates got over 50% of the vote but didn't clear that second threshold: this is the case for Marine Le Pen in the north (53.96%) and Mélenchon's successor, Manuel Bompard in Marseille.

Are the results evenly spread? Actually no, and that is the problem for NUPES whose electorate is mostly concentrated in the big cities and suburban areas. This is why Macron's alliance (Ensemble), whose electorate is more evenly spread throughout the different constituencies, is projected to win more seats (255-295) than NUPES (150-190). Extra mobilization of the left voters may actually reinforce the victory of NUPES candidates in urban areas, but getting more seats than Ensemble looks like a very long shot (another Le Monde explainer if you don't mind a bit of Google translate).

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Jun 13th, 2022 at 06:56:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a mechanical effect of the two-round system : in each district (or nearly) where a Macronist is qualified for the second round, they are the "centrist" option. i.e. if up against a RN or even Républicain candidate, they will benefit from a certain number of votes from electors of the eliminated left-wing candidate, in order to shut out the right winger.

Likewise, if it's Macronist vs NUPES, the electors of the eliminated candidates of the right and the far right are most likely to vote Macronist.

UNLESS... Mélenchon's rhetoric tends to make the second round a referendum against Macron. It remains to be seen how many RN voters buy that.

And, again, when more than half of electors didn't vote in the first round, it all depends on which side motivates its electorate.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Jun 15th, 2022 at 10:24:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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