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At the moment the Ukrainian government have zero bargaining power vis a vis the EU or the USA or any MNC offering investment. Their survival depends on the receipt of weaponry they cannot pay for. Their re-construction after the war will require trillions they have no hope of generating even in the long term. So they are wide open to being totally taken over economically, if not politically. No doubt MNC's will extract a high price.

But it is Russia which has put Ukraine in this position, and Ukraine's bargaining position will only improve once it is no longer dependent on western aid to secure its existence against Russian aggression.

Not a nice place to be in.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jan 26th, 2023 at 09:48:37 PM EST
Best estimates I read were half a trillion euros. Many variables and uncertainties though, the war neds to end. The Pentagon has already ruled out a victory for Ukraine NATO in 2023. Ukraine will nor be able to regain all of its "sovereign" territory with Crimea included. With the recent escalation, the destruction will continue at a fast pace. Occupied Eastern Ukraine is the heart of the industrial economy. I recently posted some information on rebuilding Grozny ... it took 20 years.

EU proposes options to seize frozen Russian assets, but legal concerns remain | EurActiv - Nov. 30, 2022 |

Total blocked assets of Russian National bank is €300bn.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jan 26th, 2023 at 10:46:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DICTION CORNER (US-English): Tue Sep 28th, 2021

DYK the British fiance wags call debt "leverage"? And interest rate demanded "gearing"?
(Being a US-Eng. speaker, I had to translate this for my sanity in the first weeks of LBS befor 9/11 "changed everything".)

DKY that the EU27 + UK had run a trade balance surplus with the US over 10 years before The Pandemic®? (You can look up top line USD-denominated figures at US Commerce.) That's why I keep tabs on FX pairs (not indices) so you don't have to: parity watch

DKY that US-Eng. synonyms for "leverage" run the gamut from "black mail" and US Congressional votes to "cash money"? That is anything but a mechanical lever.

by Cat on Fri Jan 27th, 2023 at 02:13:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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