...EVEN IF Russia had assessed the Ukrainian threat more effectively, it is not clear that it possessed the required force structure to execute its initial plans. This has been all but proven over the course of the conflict, as basic issues of poor maintenance and supply support, compounded by lack of trained and effective maintenance personnel, have affected Russia's ability to carry out the war. Its shortages are steadily getting worse.    

While some of Russia's supply failures can be attributed to Ukraine's acquisition of long-range precision fires [?!] (which threaten supply depots ammunition dumps), the most fundamental issues center on Russia's inability to produce the required materiel for war. The overall weakness of the Russian defense industrial base reflects an overall weak economy, one that is, again, largely dependent on energy gas and oil production (and, to a lesser extent, on agricultural exports, which have also been DECIMATED by sanctions).
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Brad Martin is a senior policy researcher at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation and the director of the RAND Institute for Supply Chain Security.