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bloomberg | Macron Wants China's Help to Bring Russia, Ukraine to the Table, 18 Apr blind spots
French President Emmanuel Macron is looking to reverse a string [!] of disappointing diplomatic forays by approaching China with a plan that he believes could potentially lead to talks between Russia and Ukraine.
fpmprc China stands ready to issue a joint call with France for the international community
chinadaily China welcomes France putting forward specific proposals on a political settlement of the conflict
Macron has tasked [sic] his foreign policy adviser Emmanuel Bonne to work with China's top diplomat [QIN GANG?], Wang Yi, to establish a framework that could be used as a basis for future negotiations, according to people familiar with the plans.
archived Wang Yi Has a Phone Call with French President's Diplomatic Advisor Emmanuel Bonne (23.03.23)
Macron has tasked [sic] his foreign policy adviser Emmanuel Bonne to work with China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, to establish a framework that could be used as a basis for future negotiations, according to people familiar with the plans....

On his recent trip to China, the French president fell short of his goal ...

It's not clear < wipes tears > if Macron has support for his plan from Kyiv and its allies, many of whom have dismissed cease-fire proposals that would allow Russia to keep territorial gains. ["]Many nations["] are also skeptical that China can serve as a neutral intermediary given its "no-limits friendship" [sic] with Russia. The countries have repeatedly pledged to strengthen ties,

20-21 March, "Joint statement by the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China on the deepening of relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction entering a new era", etc
including a call on Monday to boost cooperation between their militaries.
RT | Russia reveals details of snap Pacific Fleet drills (17.04.23)
archived "We talked about this with the head of parliament, Chairman [of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress Li Zhanshu], most recently in Vladivostok." (15.09.22), Russia To Launch [Vostok] Exercises With China, India (1-9 Sep 2022)
An official from Macron's office confirmed the plan for Bonne to speak to Wang ...

Spring Offensive

Any future negotiations would be dependent on several conditions, including a successful Ukrainian spring offensive that would put Kyiv in a position of strength during any talks, according to The People™.

Some European officials worry that dangerously high expectations < wipes tears > have been placed on any Ukrainian counteroffensive, which may not be decisive enough for Kyiv to liberate all the territory Russia has occupied. A more realistic target is a 30 kilometer (20 mile) or so advance in the south that would put Ukraine's most capable artillery within range of Russian supply lines and create the conditions for a deeper push in 2024, < wipes tears > Bloomberg previously reported.

This means Ukraine's allies [G7 NATO, Price Cap Coalition?] would need to ramp up support to enable future offensives to win back more occupied territory or that any potential ceasefire negotiations before that time could see Russia remain entrenched in significant swathes of Ukrainian territory.
[...]

kyivindependent | Bloomberg: Macron wants China to help bring Ukraine, Russia to negotiating table
During his visit to China in early [5-7] April, Macron said that he believed China had a major role to play in "building peace."

However, he also acknowledged in an interview with French financial newspaper Les Echos [!] in early April that for any negotiations to take place certain "milestones" had to be established.

President Volodymyr Zelensk* spoke by phone with Macron on April 15 to discuss the French president's recent visit to China and the situation on the frontline.

UWC | ADDRESS BY PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY: "I spoke today with French President Macron. The conversation lasted for almost an hour and a half. We had time to go through all the key security issues on the agenda—very important for us, in Ukraine, and in Europe in general....It is precisely why there is a Ukrainian Peace Formula, which is absolutely realistic and quite concrete, and it was also discussed in detail with Macron today, as well as the international events we are preparing for this year, in particular, the Vilnius NATO summit..."
Macron has previously said that he sees a major role for China and that thanks to its relationship with Russia it could "bring Moscow back to reason."
[...]
yahoo! ukrayinska pravda bloomberg | Macron wants to bring Ukraine and Russia to negotiating table in summer with China's help
Bloomberg's sources have said that Macron has tasked his foreign policy adviser Emmanuel Bonne to work with China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, to establish a framework that could be used as a basis for future negotiations, according to people familiar with the plans.

The French strategy envisions talks between Russia and Ukraine happening as soon as this summer if all goes well, said The People™, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

An official from Macron's office confirmed the plan for Bonne to speak to Wang but declined to comment on the details, adding that France's allies have been informed of any French initiative.

In response to questions, China's Foreign Ministry said [WHEN?] it was unaware of the source of the information and "difficult to verify the authenticity."

On his recent trip to China, the French president fell short of his goal to convince Xi to talk to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensk* -- the two still haven't spoken since the war broke out more than a year ago.

usnews reuters | Kremlin Says Brazil's Ukraine Plan Deserves Attention, Hasn't Seen Any Proposal From France
Bloomberg reported earlier that French President Emmanuel Macron was looking to approach China with a plan that could form the basis for talks between Moscow and Kyiv.
[...]
Lula has proposed establishing a group of countries not involved with the war to broker peace, telling reporters on Sunday he had discussed the idea with the leaders of China and the United Arab Emirates.
[...]
World POWs messaging system gob.br, 17 Apr
Various countries and world leaders, including China's Xi Jinping, France's Macron[,] and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, have tried to position themselves as possible peacemakers, nearly 14 months into the war.
[...]
The Kremlin said it had seen the reports but had not been in touch with France on the issue. "We are not aware of the existence of any French plan, we have not received anything from the French side," Peskov said [WHEN?].
situation on the frontline
sputnik | Putin Travels to Kherson Region to Meet Russian Troops, Pays First Visit to Lugansk - Video
and Zaphorizh*
by Cat on Tue Apr 18th, 2023 at 03:29:20 PM EST

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