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by Oui (Oui) on Fri Mar 31st, 2023 at 09:39:35 PM EST
EU puts trade WEAPON on the table. Will it shoot?, 30 Mar NEW! "anti-coercion instrument"
It's a message that [European] Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will deliver when she visits China next week, together with French President Emmanuel Macron.
[...]
Namechecking [sic] this week's political agreement to create a so-called anti-coercion instrument in a speech in Brussels on Thursday, von der Leyen said: "We now need the unity at EU level for a bolder and faster use of those instruments when they are required and a more assertive approach to enforcement [of WHAT?]."
archive extortion
The new rules will empower the Commission to investigate whether coercion has happened and to propose countermeasures—handing the executive greater [exclusive]competence in the making of foreign policy, an area where EU countries have traditionally called the shots.
Interestingly, Hobbes seems to share Aquinas' view that acting from fear does not undercut the voluntariness [volition] of one's acts, as he famously asserts that "covenants extorted by fear are valid" (Hobbes 1651, Ch. 14).
Countermeasures [read: anit-coercion instrument mechanism tool rules sanction] that the Commission [EC] could deploy include increased customs duties [read: tariffs], intellectual property restrictions or export controls [read: "EU embargo"], under a time-bound procedure lasting no more than a year. Details are still to be worked out but a final deal is expected before the summer break, with the anti-coercion free will instrument likely to enter force in the second half of the year.
[...]
Power grab
The anti-coercion tool [sic] was originally inspired by former U.S. President Donald TRUMP's imposition in 2018 of steel tariffs against the EU [exports] on national security grounds, which pushed Brussels to raise its game and seek to strengthen its own trade defenses.
[...]
feminist foreign fwee trade policy?
"This instrument is a kind of monster resulting from trying to reconcile two very opposite decision-making processes: one for foreign policy and security, and the other one for trade," said Philippe De Baere, managing partner at law firm Van Bael & Bellis.
[...]
wut
Credible deterrence

The Netherlands [alias Lithuania] has already emerged as a potential test case [of WHICH LAW? of WHICH JURISDICTION?].

The Dutch government bowed recently under U.S. pressure to impose export controls on high-end equipment used to manufacture microchips. ASML, a Dutch company, is the global market leader and its most advanced lithography tools are a missing piece [FALSE] of the puzzle in China's chip ecosystem [sic].

Huawei has replaced thousands of U.S.-banned parts in its products, founder says
Following the announcement, China's ambassador to the Netherlands warned this would not stay "without consequences." This in turn, sparked questions from [EU] lawmakers to the government on whether it will seek support from other EU member states in case China [?!] turns to sanctions
[...]
imbeciles
by Cat on Sat Apr 1st, 2023 at 03:44:18 PM EST
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2022 ec.europa.eu data visulization
EU - RU
EU - CN
EU - USA
by Cat on Sat Apr 1st, 2023 at 03:54:46 PM EST
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by Cat on Sat Apr 1st, 2023 at 04:18:10 PM EST
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EPP offices raided by Belgian and German police, 4 Apr
... A pan-European group, the EPP encompasses some of Europe's most prominent politicians, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.
by Cat on Tue Apr 4th, 2023 at 04:17:06 PM EST
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'Bonus bonanza' behind major strike, Norway
Norwegian labour leaders and employers' representatives fundamentally disagree over whether a 5.2 percent wage increase would have given workers the "real pay growth" they sought. Reports last week of a surprising jump in the current inflation rate, to 6.5 percent, didn't help, but it's arguably the double-digit increases in top management compensation that prompted trade union federations to break off talks and call 25,000 workers all over the country out on strike this week in a wide variety of sectors.
[...]
The battle between management and workers flared on state broadcaster NRK's popular morning radio program Politisk kvarter, with labour leader Jørn Eggum of Fellesforbundet blasting the "bonus bonanza" enjoyed by executives at many of Norway's highly profitable companies, and industrial employers' leader Stein Lier-Hansen of Norsk Industri suggesting the labour leaders are just seeking "revenge." At issue, though, is how executives routinely receive huge bonuses tied to profits on top of multi-million-kroner salaries, a practice that resulted in total compensation increases as high as 20 percent of even more last year. Workers, meanwhile, haven't seen real wage growth for the past two years, longer in many sectors. Their purchasing power has declined, and labour leaders think it's time for that to stop.
[...]
archived Nammo, atonement, Holberg Debate in the State of Norway
by Cat on Mon Apr 17th, 2023 at 11:26:05 PM EST
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FT | Norway's $1.3tn oil fund bounces back after worst year since 2008, 31 Jan
The world's biggest sovereign wealth fund has gained 5 per cent so far in 2023, chief executive Nicolai Tangen told a press conference on Tuesday.

"It's potentially one of those moments," he said, referring to the rebound in 2009 after the financial crisis, "but the outcome this year is more uncertain than normal".
[...]

by Cat on Mon Apr 17th, 2023 at 11:34:09 PM EST
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leftfootforward | A list of upcoming strike action, 15 Apr
 1. RCN nurses
 2. NEU teachers
 3. BBC
 4. AMZN
 5. RMT cleaners
 6. PCS gov.uk employees
 7. PCS driving examiners
 8. OFGEM
 9. Environment Agency.gov.uk
10. jr doctors (again)

F24 | Macron vows govt action plan in next 100 days to appease anger over pension reform
"After three months of protests and strikes, the left and unions have vowed not to give in and have warned of mass protests on the May 1 Labour Day."

by Cat on Tue Apr 18th, 2023 at 12:40:35 AM EST
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Saudi Arabia, OPEC+ producers announce [more] voluntary oil output cuts, 2 Apr, ahead of June ministerial meeting
Riyadh saying it would cut output by 500,000 barrels per day ...Moscow would extend a voluntary cut of 500,000 bpd ...The UAE said it would cut production by 144,000 bpd, Kuwait announced a cut of 128,000 bpd while Iraq said it would cut output by 211,000 bpd and Oman announced a cut of 40,000 bpd. Algeria said it would cut its output by 48,000 bpd.
oh

archived "we will not sell oil to any country that imposes a price cap on our supply", Tue Mar 7th, 2023, Fri Feb 10th, 2023, Wed Oct 5th, 2022

by Cat on Sun Apr 2nd, 2023 at 10:50:15 PM EST
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Politico | Saudis, other oil giants announce surprise production cuts: "Higher oil prices would help fill RUSSIAN  President Vladimir PUTIN's coffers as his country wages war on UKRAINE and force Americans and others to pay even more at the pump amid worldwide inflation."

No problem! sez World's #1 oil and gas producer

AP | Oil producers' cuts could boost gasoline prices, help Russia

WILL THE PRODUCTION CUT MAKE INFLATION WORSE?
[...]
WHAT WILL THIS MEAN FOR RUSSIA?
[...]
WHAT DOES THE WHITE HOUSE SAY?
White House National Security Council spokesman John KIRBY said, "We don't think that production cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty, and we made that clear."
[...]
by Cat on Mon Apr 3rd, 2023 at 04:34:15 PM EST
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World's #1 s/b IEA's #1
archived origin story
by Cat on Tue Apr 4th, 2023 at 10:15:38 AM EST
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Bloomberg | Saudi Arabia Hikes Prices for Asian Oil Sales After OPEC+ Cuts, 5 Apr confirmation
State-owned [sic] Saudi Aramco raised its selling price for flagship Arab Light crude to Asia by 30 cents a barrel, boosting prices for a third consecutive month. Traders who were surveyed before the shock OPEC+ decision had expected Arab Light prices to fall by 43 cents a barrel.
March Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices for Asia and Europe for April
[...]
Aramco sells about 60% of its crude shipments to Asia, most of them under long-term contracts, pricing for which is reviewed each month. China, Japan, South Korea[,] and India are the biggest buyers.
Saudi Aramco to invest billions in Chinese petrochemicals, 27 Mar
..."This announcement demonstrates Aramco's long-term commitment to China and belief in the fundamentals of the Chinese petrochemicals sector," Aramco executive vice president Mohammed Al Qahtani said in a statement. "It also promises to secure a reliable supply of essential crude to one of China's most important refiners."...

one year ago Aramoco Rosneft CNPC, where the NEW money is headed
by Cat on Wed Apr 5th, 2023 at 05:25:52 PM EST
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India-China competition, OPEC cuts nudge Urals above price cap, 5 Apr
Russian Urals oil broke through the  $60 per barrel price cap on Wednesday ... three sources involved in Russian oil trade said and Reuters calculations showed.
That means it's working!
Prices in excess of the cap complicate trade for Russia, which has been excluded from the international financing system [SWIFT] by Western sanctions as [seaborne] Urals can only trade in dollars [nope], the currency of international Price Cap Coalition commodity trade, provided it is sold below the $60 limit. Otherwise another currency has to be used.
another currency? That's crazy talk. oh. look. another archive.org subscriber hack
Further price support came from a term agreement signed at the end of March by Russia's largest oil producer Rosneft (ROSN.MM) and India's top refiner Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS).
[...]
The Urals oil price for a particular deal is normally calculated on the basis of a monthly or several-days average of Brent [?!] differentials. Given current ICE Brent and dated Brent prices, Urals oil cargoes on Wednesday traded slightly above $60 per barrel on a FOB (free on board) basis in Russian western ports, according to Reuters calculations.
[...]
< wipes tears > now do dated Arab Light "discount" SOKOL and ESPO far east ports. Last week, IN wanted a piece of "Power of Siberia".
by Cat on Wed Apr 5th, 2023 at 11:29:51 PM EST
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Fuels from Russian oil gets backdoor entry into Europe via India, 8 Apr
...Europe typically imported an average of 154,000 barrels per day (bpd) of diesel and jet fuel from India before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That increased to 200,000 bpd after the European Union banned Russian oil products imports from Feb. 5, Kpler data showed.
India's imports of Russian crude in March rose for the seventh straight month to end out the fiscal year as top supplier to India, displacing Iraq for the first time, the data showed.....
oh
by Cat on Fri Apr 7th, 2023 at 05:41:10 PM EST
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Exclusive: German insurers renew cover for blast-damaged Nord Stream gas link
German insurers Allianz and Munich Re have renewed cover for the damaged Russia-controlled Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, five sources with knowledge of the matter said, indicating that its revival has not been ruled out after an alleged sabotage attack.
< wipes tears >
The insurance stands in contrast to Germany's public stance of severing ties with Moscow, but one of the five sources said the German government had not opposed the cover. Most Western investors have written off their stakes in the pipeline.
[...]
All of the insurance industry and trade sources declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue.
[...]
'OLD LOGIC'
[...]
by Cat on Tue Apr 4th, 2023 at 02:15:29 PM EST
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insurancejournal | Germany's Allianz Does Not Plan to Renew Policy for Nord Stream 1 Project, 6 Apr
"This policy was underwritten prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine for a two-year period and we are under contractual obligation to our policyholders subject to all sanctions." Allianz added that contractual details were confidential matters between the company and its customers and could not disclose any further details.

Physical flows of natural gas via the Nord Stream pipeline from Jan 1, 2022 to Jan 22, 2023
by Cat on Sat Apr 8th, 2023 at 02:36:03 PM EST
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2022
Yellen Rejects Notion Sanctions Could Undermine Dollar Dominance, 12 Mae
2023
Yellen says a U.S. default could cause global financial crisis, CNN reports, 20 Jan
...Yellen also discussed her recent meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and said that China and the United States should continue regular communication and seek prospects for cooperation on matters of global importance like climate change US bond yield...
Yellen rejects notion sanctions could undermine dollar dominance, 13 Mar
"When you think about what makes the dollar a reserve currency, it's that we have the deepest and most liquid capital markets of any country on earth," Yellen said. "Treasury securities are safe, secure and immensely liquid. We have a well-functioning economic and financial system and the rule of law.
"best-in-class" leathal aid, Marshall Plans, IMF climate equity swaps, and tax credits?
There really is no other currency that can rival it as a reserve currency."
Sanctions 'undermine hegemony of dollar', US Treasury admits, 17 Apr
...Republican Senator Marco Rubio made similar comments in a March 30 segment on Fox News, complaining, "We won't have to talk sanctions in five years, because there will be so many countries transacting in currencies other than the dollar, that we won't have the ability to sanction them"....
Janet L. Yellen on the U.S. - China Economic Relationship at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 20 Apr priorities
  1. secure our national security interests and those of our allies and partners
  2. continue to partner with our allies to respond to China's unfair economic practices
  3. call on China to follow through on its promise to work with us on these issues - not as a favor to us, but out of our joint duty and obligation to the world
...Of course, an economy's size is not the sole determinant of its strength. America is the largest economy in the world, but it also remains an unparalleled leader on a broad set of economic metrics&mdahs;from wealth to technological innovation. U.S. GDP per capita is among the highest in the world and over five times as large as China's. More than resources or geography, our country's success can be attributed to our people, values, and institutions. American democracy, while not perfect, protects the free exchange of ideas and rule of law that is at the bedrock of sustainable growth. Our educational and scientific institutions lead the world. Our innovative culture is enriched by new immigrants, including those from China - enabling us to continue to generate world-class, cutting-edge products and industries....
India Accounted For 70% Of Urals Shipments In April, 24 Apr
..."Nobody stops us from buying Russian oil at above the price cap level provided. We are not using western service," India's oil secretary Pankaj Jain said at an event as carried by Reuters....
archived never accepts failure

reference
IMF | allocated reserves by currency
3Q2021-4Q2022
visualcapitalist | Here's How Reserve Currencies Have Evolved Over 120 Years
sun setting on most overvalued currency on planet

by Cat on Mon Apr 24th, 2023 at 07:46:17 PM EST
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whitehouse | Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Renewing American Economic Leadership at the Brookings Institution
I want to start by thanking all of you for indulging a National Security Advisor to discuss economics.

As most of you know, Secretary Yellen gave an important speech just down the street last week on our [Office of Foreign Asset Contol] policy with respect to China. Today I'd like to zoom out to our broader international economic policy, particularly as it relates to President Biden's core commitment—indeed, to his daily direction to us—to more deeply integrate domestic policy and foreign policy

on value chain bankruptcy and supply chain arbitrage
AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR, the United States led a fragmented world to build [back better] a new international economic order. It lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. It sustained THRILLING technological revolutions. And it helped the United States and many other nations around the world achieve NEW! levels of prosperity.
< wipes tears >
That's why the United States, under President Biden, is pursuing a modern industrial and innovation strategy--both at home and with partners around the world. One that invests in the sources of our own economic and technological strength, that promotes diversified and resilient global supply chains, that sets high standards for everything[,] from labor and the environment to trusted technology and good governance, and that deploys capital to deliver on public goods like climate and health.

Now, the idea that a "new Washington consensus," as some people have referred to it, is somehow America alone, or America and the West to the exclusion of others, is just flat wrong.

After the 11th punitive sanctions list issued by the nine heads of the G7 restrains global trade with authoritarian eNitIties that HOARD our "critical minerals" and flaut our CYBER safey mechanisms....
This strategy will build a fairer, more durableglobal economic order, for the benefit of ourselves and for people everywhere.

So today, what I want to do is lay out what we are endeavoring to do. And I'll start by defining the CHALLENGES as we see them--the CHALLENGES that we face.  To take them on, we've had to revisit some old assumptions. Then I'll walk through, step by step, how our approach is tailored to meeting those CHALLENGES.
[...]

OLD assumptions
  1. (value chain composition) America's industrial base had been "hollowed out"
  2. (perfect competition) power of "oversimplified" market efficiency
  3. (profit maximization) All growth is good growth
  4. (monopoly practices) "economic integration would make nations more responsible and open, and that the global order would be more peaceful and cooperative--that bringing countries into the rules-based order would incentivize [sic] them to adhere to its rules"
  5. (choice theory) economic growth or meeting our climate goals"
NEW plan
  1. "laying a new foundation at home--with a modern American industrial strategy": (a) "targeted public investments" (b) "crowding in private investment" (c) appropriating $3.5T over 10 years
  2. working with our partners to ensure they are building capacity, resilience, and inclusiveness (Inflation Reduction Act "friendshoring")
  3. moving beyond traditional trade deals to innovative new international economic partnerships focused on the CORE CHALLENGES of our time (geology? no!): IPEF, Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity (APEP), USMCA, and WTO proceduarl drama
  4. FDI in emerging economies "enabled by a different brand of U.S. diplomacy": (a) update multilateral development banks' "operating models" with (b) Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) loan origination and "SWIFT-like" (c) export controls
by Cat on Fri Apr 28th, 2023 at 06:19:38 PM EST
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arabnews | Oil Updates -- Russia to stop publishing data on oil, gas output until April 2024, 30 Apr
[...]
Tass, citing a government decree, said the publication of the data would be halted starting with figures for March and the first quarter.

Statistics agency Rosstat omitted monthly oil production data from its latest economic report published last Wednesday. Moscow has suspended or delayed publishing key statistics since the start of what it calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine in February 2022.

Exxon delivers record first-quarter profit
[...]

market intelligence
US oil and gas rig count steadies in April: Baker Hughes

US energy firms last week added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row for the first time since March, keeping the count steady in April, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co. said in its report.  

The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose two [2] to 755 in the week to April 28.
[...]

< wipes tears >
by Cat on Sun Apr 30th, 2023 at 02:22:15 PM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Apr 11th, 2023 at 05:23:24 PM EST
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'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Apr 11th, 2023 at 05:24:13 PM EST
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'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Apr 11th, 2023 at 05:25:11 PM EST
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'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Apr 11th, 2023 at 05:26:13 PM EST
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DW | Germany shuts down its last nuclear power stations
[...]
Asia expands its nuclear capacity
Nevertheless, China, Russia and India in particular are all planning to build new nuclear power plants. China, where there is virtually no civil society to fight new projects, wants to build another 47 plants. China already produces more nuclear power than France.

It is often argued that expanding nuclear power production protects the climate because it emits hardly any carbon dioxide. Even Japan wants to return to more nuclear power, despite the 2001 earthquake that caused several nuclear reactors to rupture in succession, forcing the initial closure of several nuclear power plants.

Since then, however, some reactors have been brought back online. Now the Japanese government has decided: The resource-poor country wants to build new reactors and let its old ones run for up to 70 years.
[...]

TASS | Germany throws its weight behind demands to add Russian nuclear power to next EU sanctions, 15 Apr
[...]
"Nuclear technology is a very sensitive sphere where Russia can no longer be considered a reliable partner," Habeck said. To him, Russia has been using dependence on its energy to exert pressure. "In this connection, the German government has just told the European Commission that it is necessary to include [Russia's] civil nuclear sector. This should be part of another sanctions package," the German minister claimed.
[...]
auswaertiges-amt.de | Visit to Asia: China, South Korea, and the G7 meeting in Japan, 12 Apr Baerbock
by Cat on Mon Apr 17th, 2023 at 11:54:20 PM EST
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Germany's sharp-tongued Annalena Baerbock rips up the diplomatic playbook, 25 Apr 360° promo
"'She is convinced that clear words also stand out in order to be taken seriously,' said Jamila Schäfer, a Green party foreign policy lawmaker who has known Baerbock for many years."

archived Too much vinegar makes lettuce wilt

by Cat on Tue Apr 25th, 2023 at 07:57:39 PM EST
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