Keep your adversaries close by ...

The Dutch have natural close economic ties with Germany because of Rhine river transport to the Industrial zone of the Ruhrgebiet.

 The Dutch Big Four and Germany: AkzoNobel, Royal Dutch Shell, Unilever and Philips, 1890-1960

Shell moved HQ to London and isn't "Royal" anymore, same goes for Unilever, all on Rutte's watch. Philps went commercial and sold many divisions while moving HQ from Eindhoven to Amsterdam. Philips Medical USA has been a disaster.

• Mark Rutte: North's quiet rebel | Politico - June 8, 2018 |
• Merkel and Macron walk out on Rutte in dispute over EU stimulus | Gulf News - July 19, 2020 |

Macron, Rutte agree to disagree on European response to US subsidies | Politico - Jan. 30, 2023 |

The two leaders don't see eye to eye on how the bloc should hit back at US Inflation Reduction Act.

French President Emmanuel Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte hinted at agreement on a possible European response to the U.S.'s multibillion green subsidy package Monday, while also exposing key differences on what that response should be.

Speaking at a joint press conference in The Hague, the two leaders spoke optimistically of their talks ahead of a European Council summit planned for next week. Macron said he felt there were "convergences" between them, while Rutte said European leaders would "work towards an agreement."

The two men have been at odds in recent weeks over how to respond to fears across the bloc that America's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will siphon green investments out of Europe. While Macron has pushed for the EU to match the IRA with a generous package of its own, Rutte, a leading voice in the so-called frugal group, has warned against throwing money at the system without reforming it.

Mark Rutte folded twice in "negotiations" with Joe Biden on banning sales of global leader ASML high-definition chip wafer machines to China.

Mark Rutte does miss his principled friends Donald and Boris ... observe the date as Joe Biden and Antony Blinken were making preparations to confront "pariah state" Russia soon.

The Big Lie China | Sept. 17, 2021 |

The second dossier Rutte wants to discuss in Downing Street 10 is sustainability and climate change, he says. 🤥

Highly unlikely! On both counts the Dutch are far behind and court orders the government to meet the criteria set forth by the European Commission in Brussels.

• Will Rutte's Falsehoods Catch Up With Him?

In my analysis these will not be on the table in talks with Johnson today. As FM Sigrid Kaag resigned yesterday, Rutte has free reign to cover foreign policy and speak of commitments in full secrecy.

The playing field: coalitions in the European Union

A Qualified Majority

As a consequence, organising blocking minorities without the UK will be considerably more difficult for some groups of countries, as illustrated by the examples below:

• A like-minded coalition of Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden and Denmark constitute five of the 27 EU member states representing 26.64% of the Union's population. This group is 8.36% short of a blocking minority.
• The Benelux, the Nordic member states, the Baltic states and Ireland constitute 10 of the 27 EU member states, but represent only 13.67% of the Union's population. This group is 21.33% short of blocking minority.

For other groups of countries, forming a blocking minority will become easier:

• After the UK's departure, France and Germany will automatically represent 33.2% of the EU's population and therefore together will almost constitute a blocking minority.
• France, Italy and Spain together represent 39.24% of the European population and can therefore easily form a blocking minority.

It can be concluded from the above outline and examples that it will be practically impossible for the Netherlands to form a population-based blocking minority without Germany, the biggest member state. If the Netherlands fails to mobilise any of the large member states, it will need the support of 12 other smaller member states to form a blocking minority. Because Germany is not an automatic ally for the Netherlands on all issues, the Netherlands must seek to work with like-minded countries, many of which traditionally orient themselves towards the UK. In the next section and the following chapters the AIV explains which groups and policy areas it believes offer the best scope for achieving this aim.