Speech by HR/VP Borrell at Shangri La Dialogue
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So, in the last ten years, we have increased our military expenditure by 30% and you ["Asia"] by 45% which shows clearly that we live in a dangerous world where people feel insecure and in order to look for security, an old reflex as old as humankind, they go and buy arms. And it shows that we must do more to build trust and address regional tensions. And that it is our common responsibility to defend security principles whenever and wherever they are threatened—be it in Ukraine or in the South China Sea or anywhere else.

Yes, dear colleagues, we must bring a peace to Ukraine. But a peace that could be considered a just peace. You know, I know how to finish the war in Ukraine. I know. It's quite easy. We stop supporting militarily Ukraine and the war would finish in a couple of weeks. But how it will finish? Doesn't it matter? Or, does it matter? If it matters, then we cannot stop supporting militarily Ukraine. Because we don't want a peace which is the peace of the cemeteries, the peace of surrender, the peace of the stronger, the peace that may create a second Belarus. But, yes, the war will finish.

'A Shared Vision for the Indo-Pacific': Remarks by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III at the Shangri-La Dialogue
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Well, the first thing I'd tell you is we're not trying to create a NATO in the Indo-Pacific and we have a number of colleagues today from Europe and I'm really glad to see them here because they all have interest in this region. And those interests are not just military, they cover whole of government and so they would tell you that they have an interest in the region because all the great things that happened here. And Prime Minister Albanese talked about some of those things yesterday. The rate at which this region is growing, you know, the capability, the capacity that this region has. It is rightful that European countries would remain interested in making sure that we have good relationships with the countries here in the region, and I'm confident that that's why they're here. But they'll probably tell you themselves, because you'll see—you'll interact with them later on in the day.
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So the question is, then, is not to finish the war, but how we finish the war. And that's why we will keep on supporting Ukraine although we want peace as much as anyone else in this room. And at the same time we must be sure that the Indo Pacific stays "pacific," as Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi rightly said last month when we met in Stockholm for the European Union Indo-Pacific Forum. And as the Spanish sailors, the first time they sailed this water, called it "pacific" because it was surprisingly - very surprisingly - because the water was so calm compared with the Atlantic.
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Global Times: According to reports, on May 31, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said to the press after the US-EU Trade and Technology Council ministerial meeting that with regard to China, the US and the EU are not looking for confrontation, a Cold War or decoupling, but are focused on de-risking. What's your comment?
Mao Ning: De-risking is becoming a buzzword lately. Before talking about de-risking, one needs to find out what the risks are....

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JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou estimates a flood of Treasuries will compound the effect of QT [quantitative tightening] on stocks and bonds, knocking almost 5% off their combined performance this year. Citigroup Inc. macro strategists offer a similar calculus, showing a median drop of 5.4% in the S&P 500 over two months could follow a liquidity drawdown of such magnitude, and a 37 basis-point jolt for high-yield credit spreads.

The sales, set to begin Monday, will rumble through every asset class as they claim an already shrinking supply of money: JPMorgan estimates a broad measure of liquidity will fall $1.1 trillion from about $25 trillion at the start of 2023.
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Lloyd's Register has told India's Gatik Ship Management, which has become a major carrier of Russian oil since the Ukraine war, that it will withdraw certification of 21 of its vessels by June 3, the maritime services company told Reuters. It is the latest setback for Gatik, which was also been forced to find new flags for 36 of its ships after they were deflagged by the St. Kitts & Nevis International Ship Registry.

"Lloyd's Register is committed to facilitating compliance with sanctions regulations on the trading of Russian oil," it said in an email to Reuters. "Where supported by evidence, we withdraw class and services from any vessels found by the relevant authorities to be breaching international sanctions."
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A major U.S. insurer, the American Club, also told Reuters it was no longer providing cover for Gatik ships, while Russian insurer Ingosstrakh (INGSI.MM) said it would not work with Gatik in future.
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According to Refinitiv [!] data, about 1.36 million tonnes of Russian crude was earmarked for arrival in India in May and June on tankers linked to Gatik, although those numbers were preliminary. In April, the St. Kitts & Nevis International Ship Registry told Reuters it was removing its flag from 36 Gatik vessels. According to data from maritime platform Lloyd's List Intelligence, Gatik has flagged 15 ships to Gabon, up from 9 at the start of April before St. Kitts & Nevis started removing its flag from the company's vessels.

Gabon's flag registry did not respond to requests for comment.

Germany may be forced to wind down or even switch off industrial capacity if UKRAINE's gas transit agreement with Russia isn't extended after it expires at the end of next year, according to Economy Minister Robert Habeck.

Rules on sharing the burden of potential gas shortages in Eastern Europe would have to be respected, meaning Germany would have to export gas there to offset the deficit and manufacturers in Europe's biggest economy could have their supply restricted or cut, he added.

archived EU Opens Gas Buyers' Club to Blunt Price Volatility Seen in Energy Crisis

"There is no secure scenario for how things will turn out," Habeck said at the forum in Bad Saarow. Additional capacity -- including a planned LNG [mega-]terminal on Germany's north coast that has provoked opposition from locals and environmental groups -- will therefore be essential to maintain supply to both Eastern Germany and Eastern Europe, he said.

archived Germany's LNG acceleration law

Even if some supply continues beyond 2024, it's unlikely that the current transit agreement will be extended under similar conditions, given the lack of political support, according to a report by the Center on Global Energy Policy published last week.

it could dent confidence in the euro as a global currency and hurt financial stability.

The Frankfurt-based institution has privately told the European Commission that plans to divert payments on bonds owned by the Russian central bank to fund Ukraine would send a bad signal to global markets, according to people familiar with the discussions.
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"The implications could be substantial: it may lead to a diversification of reserves away from euro-denominated assets, increase financing costs for European sovereigns, and lead to trade diversification," the note added, describing the ECB position. An ECB spokesperson declined to comment.
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I welcome the political agreement on our 11th sanctions package.

It will deal a further blow to Putin's war machine with tightened export restrictions, targeting entities supporting the Kremlin.

Our anti-circumvention tool will prevent Russia from getting its hands on... https://t.co/MlQlxNzNeR

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) June 21, 2023

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The new package allows the implementation of measures restricting the [EU?] export of sensitive dual-use goods and technology to third countries, which could then transfer them to Russia. The new rules allow the EU to exert much more pressure to end the practice than before.

EU officials have long been concerned about a surge of demand for EU products from Russia's neighbors, including Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, and from other countries that have maintained trading relationships with Moscow, such as the United Arab Emirates [UAE], Turkey, and CHINA.

The package adds 71 people and 33 eNTiTies to those banned from the EU and freezes any assets they hold in EU jurisdictions for being involved in the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.[
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In addition, the package bans access to EU ports for ships that engage in ship-to-ship transfers of crude oil or petroleum products at sea if there is cause to suspect the cargo was of Russian origin.

The European Commission took into account a number of Warsaw's proposals when drafting the 11th package of anti-Russian sanctions, Permanent Representative of Poland to the European Union Andrzej Sados said in Brussels on Wednesday.

"Among other things, the list includes the provision suggested by Poland on sanctions against the northern section of the Druzhba oil pipeline, and the banning of Russian semi-trucks from entering the European Union," Radio Poland quoted Sados as saying.

The EU will penalize ships transporting Russian crude or derivatives purchased above the maximum price agreed by Australia, Canada, Japan, the UK, and the U.S.
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Furthermore, the new package includes the possibility of adopting new exceptional measures as a "last resort" to restrict the sale, supply, transfer, or export of sensitive dual-use goods and technology to third countries whose jurisdiction "demonstrates a continuous and particularly high risk of being used for evasion."
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...EU ambassadors struggled for weeks to reach a consensus. The main reason was Greece and Hungary protesting against including some of their companies on the list of "war sponsors" proposed by Ukraine. Athens and Budapest wanted their companies to be removed from that list. Currently, the details of how the resistance from the two countries was overcome are unknown....

On 9 June 2023, the EU Council published draft legislation introducing EU-wide criminal penalties and stricter enforcement for the evasion of EU sanctions. The EU Council's press release explains that it has settled its position on the terms of new legislation to align criminal offences and penalties across the EU, before commencing negotiations with the European Parliament on its finalisation.

Proposal on the definition of criminal offences and penalties for the violation of EU restrictive measures, 17 May 2023, 47 pp

Currently, Member States are not obligated to criminalise sanctions circumvention, however, once finalised, Member States will need to criminalise certain conduct specified in the legislation. As currently proposed, criminal conduct under the draft legislation includes:
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comment: The situation here is pretty psychotic.

UK core inflation has risen to 7.1%, the highest in 31 years. "It is looking increasingly likely that it will require a recession to finally get the inflation genie back into the bottle." [_link]

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) June 21, 2023

Bank of England must `create recession' to fight high inflation, Hunt advisor says, as mortgage rates rise again

'Sapere aude'

Is Brexit behind the UK's inflation shock? [_link]

— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) June 21, 2023

1.4m UK mortgage holders face 20% hit to disposable income from rate hikes

'Sapere aude'