vOLdEmRT | Deaths confirmed in frontline dam rupture (08.06.23)
At least 5 people were killed and 41 were injured in the wake of the breach of the Kakhovka [HPP] dam, the mayor of the city hosting the damaged structure has said.
"Reports came today that out of the seven people, who were grazing cattle, five died. We are in the process of evacuating the other two," Novaya Kakhovka Mayor Vladimir Leontyev reported during an interview on Thursday.

jwld.pl | Large and smal reservoirs of Ukraine (2022)

Novaya Kakhovka is located on the ["]left shore["] of the river and is controlled by Russia, while Ukraine controls the opposite side of the Kherson region. Ukrainian officials said there were some fatalities after the flooding on the ["]right shore["] as well. Water levels in the city rose by 12 meters [!] after the dam was breached, before starting to slowly recede by Tuesday [06.06.23] evening. Russian authorities estimated that 14 settlements were in the impact area. In addition to the direct damage to buildings, infrastructure, and fields, the incident caused the draining of a water reservoir, which was used to feed a canal transporting fresh water to Russia's Crimea.

Kiev claimed that Russian troops blew up the dam to prevent a possible [UAF] amphibious operation across the Dnieper in Kherson Region. Ukrainian officials say that charges were planted inside the dam, which the Russian Defense Ministry has denied. Moscow in turn blamed the Ukrainians, citing their [UAF] record of shelling the strategically important facility.
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strana.ua | Zelensk* arrived in Kherson today and visited the crossing through which residents are being evacuated (08.06.23)
"Our task is to protect life as much as possible and help people," Zelensky said.

Dnieper River topographic map

On the eve of the Kherson region, they reported the evacuation of residents  from areas near the Kakhovka reservoir, in Kherson, water began to arrive in some areas. About 16 thousand [16K] people live in the flood zone.

Today, the governor of the [right bank] Kherson region, Alexander Prokudin, said that as of the morning, 1,999 people had been evacuated from the right bank of the Kherson region, of which almost one and a half thousand [1,500]  were from the Korabel district in Kherson. Earlier we wrote that residents are being evacuated from the Ostrov microdistrict in Kherson by boat. This is done by both employees of the State Emergency Service and volunteers. And in the flood zone on the day of the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, 52 people were rescued .

The shelling came just after Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensk* visited a ["]crossing point["] where people were being evacuated from flooded areas and called for "a clear and quick global response" to Tuesday's bombing of the ["left bank" of the] Nova Kakhovka [HPP] dam, which Kyiv and its allies say the Kremlin orchestrated [a/k/a mined].

"Orcs have just fired at School No. 2 where people from flooded homes were gathering," said Yevhen Rischuk, the Ukrainian mayor-in-exile of the occupied town of ["left bank"] Oleshky, which has been hit hard by the floodwaters. "Orcs" is the nickname Ukrainians use for Russian forces. Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office subsequently reported that nine civilians have been wounded in the city of Kherson.
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On Wednesday, Zelensk* told Axel Springer [!], POLITICO's parent company, that Russian forces were shooting at Ukrainian rescuers attempting to reach those trapped in flood-struck areas of occupied Kherson. "As soon as our helpers try to rescue them, they are shot at," Zelensk* said.

"Russians are shelling the shores and the central district" of Kherson, the [Kherson] region's governor, Oleksandr Prokudin, said in a statement. ... Prokudin said that as of Thursday morning, the water level in Kherson had risen [?]  by 5.61 meters [from 11m - 12m?]. He said 600 square kilometers of the Kherson region is under water, of which 32 percent is on the Ukrainian-held ["right"] bank of the Dnipro River and 68 percent is on the Russian-occupied ["left"] bank.

Source: Yevhen Ryshchuk, the mayor of Oleshky, on Facebook; Suspilne news outlet; Radio Liberty, referring to Tetiana Hasanenko, Head of the Oleshky Military Administration

Kremlin-backed local authorities claim they are rescuing residents from the left bank of the Dnipro River, with some 1,300 out of 40,000 evacuated. Painting a rosy picture, Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed acting governor of Kherson, said in a statement that children have been removed from the flood zone and sent "to the sea to good holiday camps in the Kherson region, or Crimea." He continued: "As for the adult residents, few show a desire to evacuate. People want to wait until the water comes down and continue to work on their land."

But those on the ground report a different reality.

Ten natives of the town of Oleshky and the village of Kardashynka, located some 20 kilometers and 36 kilometers southeast of the city of Kherson respectively, told POLITICO that locals tried to flee immediately after the dam blasts—but Russian troops blocked them and forced them to return home to wait for an official list of evacuees who would be bussed out of the area. And Russian forces are actively preventing Kyiv's authorities from rescuing those who are trapped by floodwaters in occupied areas, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensk* said in an exclusive interview.

"From the roofs of the flooded houses, people see drowned people floating by," Zelensk* said. "It's very hard to get people out of the occupied ["left bank"] part of Kherson region. When our ["volunteer"] forces try to get them out, they are shot at by occupiers from a distance."
[...]"On the territory of the left bank that is not under Ukrainian control, evacuation is required for 20 settlements [!], with an estimated population of 25,000 [!] people," [Ukraine's Environment Minister Ruslan] Strilets said, adding: "The Russian occupying authorities are not providing evacuation assistance to the people."

Russian troops seemed disoriented by the scale of the disaster after the dam burst, eyewitnesses indicated.

"They left their own soldiers and weapons there," said Oleksandra, a resident of Oleshky who has also been helping coordinate local rescue efforts. Oleksandra asked for her surname to be withheld due to safety concerns.
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Some Russian soldiers have attempted to help those in some parts of the disaster zone, Oleksandra said, but the efforts are sporadic and complicated by a lack of trust in the occupying forces. Told that Russian authorities had arranged for busses to shuttle them to safety, locals were terrified at the thought of boarding them: "They did not know where Russians would take them. They were afraid to be deported to Russia," said Oleksandra.

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Ukraine has cut four bridges close to [Kherson] city and has also targeted Russian military infrastructure in the province, using artillery supplied by the West. Mr. [Vladimir] Saldo [RU gov] said that the evacuation, which was organized initially by the local authorities, applied to people living on both banks of the river.
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Since the start of October, Ukrainian forces have burst through Russia's front lines there [Kherson] in their biggest advance in the south since the war began. They have since moved rapidly along the river's western bank, aiming to cut off thousands of Russian troops from supply lines and potential routes of retreat. Kyiv says it has recaptured more than 400 square kilometres (155 miles) in the Kherson region in less than a week, with its forces bearing down towards the three-kilometre-long (two-mile-long) Nova Kakhovka dam that provides one of the last river crossings.
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Russian-installed governor Vladimir Saldo said authorities were moving civilians to the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River in order to "keep people safe" and allow the military to "act resolutely".

Lars Wilderäng (22.10.22)
Modeled by Dämmningsverket AB using the US Army Corps of Engineers (SACE) software HEC-RAS 6.3. The terrain data comes from Nasa.'s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and are available from the United States Geographical Survey (USGS). The model is not based on actual measurements of the current state of the Dnipro flow, waterline, temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed and anytning else which would affect the model, but on assumptions for a worst case. Assumptions include that the water-level in the dam is 13 meters above the Dnipro downstream, and that the dam break over an hour expands to a width of approximately 200 meters break in the dam. The destruction of the dam by Russia woudl be a war crime according to the Geneva Convention.

The American aerospace company Maxar Technologies on its Twitter page released satellite images showing that the Russian occupiers damaged the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant [HPP] in the Kherson Region. The images show that individual sections of the dam and locks have been destroyed. In general, the damage looks like significant. At the same time, according to CNN, referring to the analysis of satellite images of Maxar Technologies, water flows from three lock gates on the dam.

🇺🇦 Ukraine has demanded a billion dollars after the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.

The head of Ukrhydroenergo said that the hydroelectric power station cannot be restored and it needs to be built anew.

"To build a new station, you need at least 5... pic.twitter.com/ys7yNWfd3o

— Zlatti71 (@djuric_zlatko) June 8, 2023

Ukraine's domestic security agency, SBU, posted a one-and-a-half-minute audio recording on its Telegram channel in which two men are heard discussing in Russian the aftermath of the dam collapse.

"The invaders wanted to blackmail Ukraine by blowing up the dam and staged a man-made disaster in the south of our country."

Meanwhile, seismic data picked up by the NORSAR observatory in Norway showed activity at 2:54 a.m. local time on June 6 indicating an explosion -- with the timing of the explosion coinciding with media reports of the dam collapse.

"The signal that we are analyzing, the way the energy is recorded on the sensors at distance, clearly shows us that this is an explosive-type character compared to many other explosions that we monitored in the past," Volker Oye, head of research at NORSAR told Reuters on Friday.

Kakhovskaya HPP Dam is the sixth, lower stage of the Dnieper Cascade. The North Crimean Canal feeds from the Kakhovka Reservoir. Earlier, the scientific director of the Institute of Water Problems, Viktor Danilov-Danilyan, explained to RG that Crimea could do without a canal at all and live more or less normally. The only thing that will have to be abandoned is RICE SOWING. "Crimeans don't have to worry this year: the reservoirs of the North Crimean Canal are about 80 percent full, and that's enough for the season," he stressed.

In the Kherson Region, the water level in the Dnieper has returned to its natural riverbad after the Russians [?] blew up the Kakhovka HEPP. Now the level fluctuations correspond to the natural fluctuations of this time of year. This is reported by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (SESU).
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Two settlements (two houses) on the ["]right bank["] of the Dnieper and 17 settlements in the temporarily occupied territory ["left bank"] of the Kherson Region remain flooded.

Work on pumping out water is ongoing. Over the past day, 72,000 tons of water were pumped out of 56 basements. Since the beginning of the works, more than 373,008 tons of water have been pumped out of 923 houses and basements.

As Ukrainian News Agency [ukranews] earlier reported [translator disabled], two weeks after the incident, the water level in the Kakhovka Reservoir Dnieper River dropped below the level at which water can be taken from it. Later, specialists of Ukrhydroenergo [19.06.23] assumed that the ["natural"] water level in the reservoir Dnieper could drop to 7 meters.

After the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant's dam by the Russian occupiers...

We previously reported that it may take at least 6 years to dismantle the destroyed dam of the Kakhovka HEPP and build a new structure.

He said this during a speech in the Verkhovna Rada, RBC-Ukraine reports. According to Zelensk*, all the world's best physical and mental rehabilitation practices should be applied in Ukraine.

"All the best world practices, all the most effective practices, all decisions, no matter how difficult or unusual they may seem for us, must be applied in Ukraine so that Ukrainians, all our citizens, do not have to endure the pain, stress, and trauma of war," the President said. Zelensk* supported not only the legalization of medical cannabis, but its controlled production in Ukraine.

"In particular, we must finally honestly legalize cannabis-based medicines, relevant scientific research and controlled Ukrainian production for all who need it," Zelensk* said.

President Volodymyr Zelensky stated this during a speech in the Verkhovna Rada on Constitution Day, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

"The specific goal for Ukraine's GDP is a trillion [US?] dollars [UAH 36,834,420,427,700]. Yes, a trillion dollars is a very, very high bar, and it seems to be unrealistic. But Ukraine's potential can provide it," the head of state said.

"Ukraine will abandon the idea that Ukrainian labor should be cheap. The cheap labor of our people was supposed to be a competitive advantage of Ukraine. We aim to achieve a level of wages that could be determined by the formula: neighbors in the European Union plus 30 percent. After the victory, Ukraine will rely primarily on skilled labor and therefore on education," Zelensk* said.
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As reported, First Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko said at Ukraine Recovery Conference in London that Ukraine aims to increase its gross domestic product (GDP) to USD 1 trillion in ten years.

"Ukraine needs a new economic model. Without this, it will be impossible to achieve the set and very ambitious goal - Ukraine's GDP should total $1 trillion in 10 years," [PM Denys] Shmyhal said at the Cabinet's meeting, Ukrinform reports.

According to him, the Ministry of Economy will play the main role in the fulfillment of this goal and therefore will present a clear and comprehensive strategy for the new economy of Ukraine. Private capital and entrepreneurs will take the lead in this economic model.

In turn, the Head of Government added, the role of the state in the economy will be drastically reduced. Privatization will continue and corporate governance reform will be completed, radical deregulation will be carried out, and all business services will be digitized.

Pre-war taxes will return from August. Rada voted to abolish the single tax of 2% for businesses (30.06.23)
... The adoption of the bill is one of the conditions of the program with the IMF. wrote about it in detail earlier. ["Business is waiting for a double increase in the single tax - they paid 2% of turnover, it will be 5%."] ...

"As we said, the focus should not be just on the GDP figure. New jobs and new businesses are the indicators by which the work will be evaluated. One of the key elements of the economic philosophy is the principle that Ukraine bets on recycling. Not the export of raw materials, but the export of finished products. Inclusion of Ukraine in European and global production chains," Shmyhal noted.
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