seymourhersh.substack was dancing on my last nerve. I know that he knows, he'd be asleep in his Barcalounger® dreaming of his NYT salad-days, if the White House didn't call him once a week with a "tip". So why did he have to go and hauled that tool Brad Setser onto his lap?

I have been told a different, secret story about Erdogan's turnabout: Biden promised that a much-needed $11-13 billion line of credit would be extended to Turkey by the International Monetary Fund.

• Turkey Pays Off IMF Debt, Becomes Contributor (2013)
• Turkey is also seemingly on the brink of a major debt crisis (2018) to EU, UK, and US sanctions against Turkey (2021)
• Turkey receives $6.3 billion SDR from IMF (2021)
• IMF:TR | Balance sheet, 1984-2023
• IMF | REPUBLIC OF TÜRKIYE | at a glance (2023)
• Turkiye | EVDS dashboard

Remember what the conscience of a liberal says: Debt Is (Mostly) Money We Owe to Ourselves

[...]
A June analysis [06.06.23] by Brad W. Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, "Turkey's Increasing Balance Sheet Risks," said it all in the first two sentences--Erdogan won re-election and "now has to find a way to avoid what appears to be an imminent financial crisis."

...To be sure, Erdogan no doubt intends to do another round of deals with [Türkiye]'s neighbors to close [Türkiye]'s financing gap.

Erdogan has been able to get funds from almost everyone. Even countries that don't like each other have given money to Erdogan to try to make sure [Türkiye] doesn't swing toward their rivals[, competitors, and partners]. The [Islamist] Qataris and the [Islamist] Saudis, for example, don't have the closest relationship. But both have provided Erdogan with funding--the Qataris to cement an alliance with the Islamist Erdogan, and the [Islamist] Saudis and the [Islamist] Emiratis to keep [Türkiye] from migrating fully into Qatar's camp. [Türkiye] has also gotten a deposit from the Azer[baijan], swap lines from [Islamist] China and [S.] Korea, and a bit of funding from [Islamist] Russia's state atomic energy company...

The critical fact, Setser writes, is that Turkey "is on the edge of truly running out of usable foreign exchange reserves--and facing a choice between selling its gold, an avoidable default, or swallowing the bitter pill of a complete [360°] policy reversal and possibly an IMF program."

well, Guess what, Sy? Brad doesn't understand The Jungle's favor bank either! It's kind of a shame he wasted all his creativity on emailing hand-made charts to WB Group.

APsplainin Turkey's finance chief heralds $50.7 billion deals with stim checks from UAE as Erdogan tours Gulf nations, 20 July swaps and LCT opportunity

Erdogan embarked on a tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE on Tuesday, seeking trade and investment opportunities for Turkey's floundering economy.
[...]
The agreements involve export financing, earthquake bonds, energy gas and oil production, defense arms production, and other sectors [, possibly mining].

He wouldn't have nailed fresh capital without fresh sanctions. The SCO sez, Thank you, US Treasury OFAC! And your little dog Josep!