April 2024 | 153 comments (153 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

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T -42. Macron Gauging Support for a Plan to Install Draghi in the Top EU Job

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When von der Leyen became the surprise president in 2019 following an agreement between Macron and then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, she vowed to transform the institution into a "geopolitical commission." But she may have sunk her own chances, a separate official said, by over-politicizing her role.
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"The commission presidency is there to defend the general interest, so it must not be over-politicized," Macron said in Brussels last month. "Which, it has to be said, was not at all the case with this outgoing commission." A spokesperson from Macron's office declined to comment.
There's broad consensus that a decision won't be made until after the June 9 European election, when EU leaders will hash out who will fill the top posts, including for the European Council, the parliament and the foreign policy service. That process is a complicated, back-room negotiation, which weighs geographical balance and, more importantly, which political parties are entitled [!] to the most consequential [sic] roles.

Save the date: "Macron will give a broad policy speech at the Sorbonne on Thursday", 25 April
Regardless of Macron's maneuvering, von der Leyen is still the clear favorite [FKA spitzenkandidat] since she's the lead candidate for the center-right European People's Party [EPP], which is expected to handily win the most votes in June. Traditionally, that means an EPP candidate would get the commission role.
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EU leaders are scheduled to meet on June 17 to discuss the reshuffle, just a week after the election. Even if von der Leyen is picked by the leaders at the summit, where no consensus is required [?], she would still face a difficult confirmation vote at the parliament, which must agree by absolute majority. In 2019, von der Leyen was elected president by only nine votes. And given the expected increase in support for the hard-right [EPP] parties, her margins will be even tighter this year.