The U.S. is drafting sanctions that threaten to cut some Chinese banks off from the global financial system, arming Washington's top envoy with diplomatic leverage [sic] that officials hope will stop Beijing's commercial support of Russia's military production, according to people familiar with the matter.

But as Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to Beijing on Tuesday, the question is whether even the threat of the U.S. using one of its most potent tools of financial coercion can put a dent in complex and burgeoning trade between Beijing and Moscow that has allowed the Kremlin to rebuild a military badly < wipes tears> mauled by more than two years of fighting in Ukraine.

archive Sun Tzu said: in Munich Security Conference 2023, another level of escaltion in Last Throes of European Economic Clout, A War of Lasting Attrition in Joe's Fuck the EU, Stoltenberg Talking Ammo in One Year In Review,
Ukraine's 'Invisible Crisis'

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The West now worries Russia could win against Ukraine in a war of attrition, particularly if allies don't cannot mobilize their own industries to match Russian production.

archive EU raises bar for punishing countries

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U.S. officials say targeting banks with sanctions is an escalatory option in case the diplomatic overtures fail to persuade Beijing to curb its exports. U.S. officials have ramped up pressure coercion on Beijing in recent weeks in private meetings and calls, warning that Washington is ready to take action against Chinese financial institutions handling trade in such dual-use goods.
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"Payment chains are slowly being rebuilt," [Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center fellow Alexandra] Prokopenko said. "Both Russians and Chinese are constantly adapting to the new conditions."
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archive messaging systems in Ruble and Yuan

Trade in some of the most critical dual-use goods for Russia's military surged after Xi's meeting with Putin in March last year, according to a recent analysis published [22.04.24] by the Center for Strategic and International Studies [CSIS], a Washington-based think tank.

Back in Stock? The State of Russia's Defense Industry after Two Years of the War (62 pp)
Part I: The State of Russian Weapons Systems in 2023
Part II: Russia's Evolving Import Diversification Efforts
Part III: Existing Russian Military Industrial Drawbacks
Part IV: Russia's Strategy in Ukraine in 2024
Conclusion and Recommendations
"A recent report by the Yermak-McFaul [!] International Working Group on Russian Sanctions outlines other measures feasible in the short term to reduce Russia's oil revenues, including strengthening enforcement, and implementing an initial downward ratchet in the price caps as well as completing the EU embargo [sic] on Russian hydrocarbons."

CSIS said the number of shipments of key dual-use goods, including helicopter parts, navigational equipment, and the machines used to craft precision parts for weapons and aircraft jumped from just a few thousand a month to nearly 30,000 a month.
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