Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Organizational hygiene. Pragmatic pro-Ukraine Meloni. Nationalist pro-Ursula Meloni.
T -4
euractiv | Green lead candidate hits back at EPP attempts to exclude her group from Commission majority, 31 May
The centre-right EPP is projected to remain in charge of the European Commission after the EU elections, but it needs to team up with other European Parliament groups for its candidate for the presidency to pass the investiture vote.
euractiv | Meet the parties fighting for power in the European [Parliament], 1 June illustrated
However, the Greens' offer to join the Commission's majority in exchange for policy concessions has been received coolly by the EPP. Daniel Caspary, leader of the EPP's largest delegation, the German CDU, claimed that the Greens proved unreliable when voting against the EU's migration reform.

"The Greens should not be part of the Commission majority because they are very dogmatic and ideological in the European Parliament," Jens Spahn, a leading national CDU lawmaker, told Euractiv. Commission President and EPP lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen also appeared to doubt the Greens' suitability.

"We will see how the Greens behave after the elections", she told WDR on Monday when asked about her coalition options, noting that the Greens voted against parts of the Green deal "because they wanted more."

dailynewshungary | Hungary to lose important Brussels position
"Fed up with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's constant obstructionism on Ukraine, his fellow EU leaders plan to punish him by giving his country a weak portfolio in the next European Commission," POLITICO writes, citing three diplomats who requested anonymity.
reuters | Thousands rally to back Hungary's Orban ahead of EU vote, 1 June
"The results of the EP and local elections on June 9 will reveal how big Orban's domestic political challenges are and whether Magyar poses a greater threat to Fidesz or other opposition parties," said Andrius Tursa at think tank Teneo.
The diplomats also told POLITICO that EU officials "have no appetite for" Olivér Várhelyi, European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement from Hungary.
euractiv | EU ministers fume as 'outrageous' Hungary yet again blocks military aid for Ukraine, 27 May absent 'abstention'
The Commissioner plays a significant role in discussions about Ukraine's and Balkan states' accession to the EU, which is problematic because, as the diplomats note, Hungary has been openly and consistently attempting to halt the accession talks and block aid to Ukraine.
by Cat on Sun Jun 2nd, 2024 at 05:06:25 PM EST
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How about letting the folks vote first  and quite likely punish the elitists in Ivory Tower managing the enlarged EU of Brussels.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 2nd, 2024 at 05:41:33 PM EST
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'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 2nd, 2024 at 05:46:56 PM EST
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ChatGPT | Mega-rumor to the Top Job for Baerbock, 1 June GOTV
Könnte unsere Außenministerin Annalena Baerbock (43, Grüne) die EU-Chefin ablösen? Gar nicht mal ausgeschlossen, berichtet ,,Politico" (gehört wie BILD zur Axel Springer SE).
Scholz und Macron wollen Wechsel an der EU-Spitze
Und immer klarer wird: Der Unmut über von der Leyen auf dem Top-Posten ist bei vielen wichtigen EU-Akteuren groß.
Wenn eine deutsche EU-Chefin, dann grün
ABER: Im Koalitionsvertrag der Ampel ist festgehalten, welche Partei das Vorschlagsrecht bekommt, sollte Deutschland einen oder eine neue Kandidatin für das mächtigste EU-Amt ins Rennen schicken. Es sind: die Grünen!
EU-Konservative haben jetzt schon genug Grün
Was noch gegen eine weitere Amtszeit von Ursula von der Leyen spricht: Selbst wenn sie von Frankreich und Deutschland im EU-Rat unterstützt würde, ist ihr eine Mehrheit im Parlament nicht sicher. Schon beim letzten Wahlgang hatte sie nur neun Stimmen mehr als nötig. Sogar in ihrer Fraktion werden wohl einige Abgeordnete von der Leyen ihre Stimme verweigern, möglicherweise auch in CDU und CSU, wo ebenfalls einiger Frust über die aktuelle EU-Chefin herrscht. Hauptgrund dafür: Von der Leyen ist ihnen zu grün, treibt für ihren Geschmack zu viele Öko-Projekte voran - insbesondere ihr ,,Green Deal" ist bei vielen EU-Konservativen verhasst.
by Cat on Sun Jun 2nd, 2024 at 11:41:43 PM EST
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Is this Sino- or Ruso-disinfoo?
In 2018 the National Assembly of France established a single EP electoral "constituency" (81 seats). Prior to that, eight EP electoral districts, drawn in proportion to population size, elected candidates for the number of EP seats apportioned to each. It's rumored that 37 parties registered 3,000 candidates for France's trailing EP election (9 June). I am thrilled to learn, le gouvernment requires original identity documents in lieu of a valid voter card at one's polling place—a contentious limitation to freedoms of persons resident in US America. I suppose, also-ran EP candidates will nominate themselves for NA seats in 2027.

Atlantic MSM, G7 MSM, fixation on the outcome of MEP elections this week contrasts with months-long alarm that corruption of EU27 parliaments by far-right EPP "national populists" is imminent (2027).

Regarding the National Assembly of France, French PM steps in to boost Macron's ailing EU parliament campaign

Regarding G7 joint ventures to vanquish RUSSIA, with or without the imprimatur of global peace summit delegates, Macron, Zelensk* to discuss Ukraine's needs in Paris on Friday. The Ukrainian president will be welcomed by France's Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu with military honours on Friday morning, deliver a speech in the National Assembly, and meet with the speaker of the lower house Yael Braun-Pivet. Opposition leader of right-wing Republicans in parliament, Olivier Marleix, said, it was "inappropriate" to invite Zelensk* during EP elections.

Biden to meet with Zelensk* in France
Jake Sullivan debriefed reporters en route to France on Tuesday night. He also noted that Biden will "be with" Zelensk* in Italy for the G7 meeting next week.

by Cat on Wed Jun 5th, 2024 at 07:12:28 PM EST
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European citizens still face administrative hurdles to vote, 10 June
The [EP] elections are the world's second-largest democratic ballot after India.
However, compared to other elections, EU citizens face a complicated web of administrative hurdles they need to overcome to be eligible to vote.

While citizens are automatically registered to vote in national elections, things are more complicated when it comes to the [EP] elections, especially for people not living in their country of citizenship.

In most EU countries, these citizens have to register with local authorities to be eligible to vote in their country of residence if they hold citizenship from another EU state—with procedures and deadlines varying from country to country and voters having to register up to 90 days in advance, as is the case in Italy.

GOTV 2024 Managment is still crunching the numbers
by Cat on Mon Jun 10th, 2024 at 02:01:33 PM EST
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For Politico.com.eu "D-Day" isn't Democracy Day. It's Joe Macron memorial services versus PUTIN oligarchs Day.


euronews AI-enabled "political families" matrix prepares to run numbers

by Cat on Thu Jun 6th, 2024 at 08:03:04 PM EST
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ChatGPT | Voting in 20 EU countries under way as elections for the European Parliament enters its final day, 9 June
Surveys suggest that mainstream and pro-European parties will retain their majority in parliament, but they will lose seats to hard right [EPP] parties like those led by Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen in France. That would make it harder for Europe to pass legislation and could at times paralyze decision-making in the world's biggest trading bloc.
< wipes tears >
euronews | Poll Centre, "pre-bunking"
Euronews Polls Centre builds its parliamentary graphs, polls and projections from an array of sources. Our Euronews Polls Average is developed using publicly available polls from across the European Union. Euronews aggregated findings are built with a proprietary methodology utilizing a Kalman Filter (LQE), a predictive statistical algorithm that uses large data sets for predictive purposes. Euronews does not adjust results for house effect, weight any polls, or favor specific polling houses. Euronews only collects data with sample populations over 800 < wipes tears >, except under unique [!] circumstances where data is limited. Euronews Parliamentary seat predictions are based on polling results. All information regarding E.U. parliamentary seats, party affiliations and MEPs can be found on the E.U.'s website. Euronews-Ipsos [abbynormal sampling] methodology can be found on the Ipsos website.
by Cat on Sun Jun 9th, 2024 at 01:28:14 PM EST
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yahoo! DPA | Germany's Scholz to attend D-Day 80th anniversary events, 31 May
"Macron did not invite any representatives from the Russian government to attend the D-Day anniversary events because of Russia's ongoing military invasion of Ukraine."

ChatGPT | A MASS PARACHUTE JUMP over Normandy kicks off commemorations for the 80th anniversary of D-Day, 4 June
"Part of the purpose of fireworks shows, parachute jumps, solemn commemorations and ceremonies that world leaders will attend this week is to pass the baton of remembrance to the current generations now seeing war again in Europe, in Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensk* and British royals are among the VIPs that France is expecting for D-Day events."

NY Yella Cake | Zelensk* Shares Emotional Moment With U.S. Veteran at D-Day Ceremony, 6 June

The veteran, Melvin Hurwitz, embraced the Ukrainian president and called him "the savior of the people." Mr. Zelensk* told Mr. Hurwitz that he and his fellow World War II veterans had "saved Europe."
yahoo! Hill | Zelensk* compares retaking of Kherson to D-Day (15.11.22)
Their embrace mirrored a connection that President Biden made explicit in his remarks at the ceremony, in which he cast the allied effort to repel the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an extension of the ["]battle for freedom in Europe["] that unfolded on Normandy's beaches eight decades ago."
Biden and Zelensk* to meet amid tensions over pace of U.S. military aid, 6 June: "It's a familiar pattern we've seen again and again. It's usually: `No, No, Maybe, Yes,'" said John Herbst, a retired career diplomat and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.
"We know the DARK FORCES that these heroes fought against 80 years ago," Mr. Biden said, addressing a crowd of thousands, including 180 surviving veterans of the D-Day operation, near the graves of 9,388 American service members.
abcnews | 9 members of Congress parachute jump over Normandy for D-Day anniversary: Reps. Crow (D-CO), Waltz (R-FL), Crenshaw (R-TX), Jackson, (R-TX), McCormick (R-GA), Green (R-TN), Mills (R-FL), Issa (R-CA), Self (R-TX)
"They never fade," Mr. Biden added. "Aggression and greed, the desire to dominate and control, to change borders by force—these are perennial. The struggle between dictatorship and freedom is unending."
globalsecurity.org | Federal Chancellor at D-Day commemoration ceremony - Ouest France Olaf
The Allied landing in Normandy on 6 June 1944, 80 years ago today, was a day of liberation. It was a day of liberation for France and for many countries of Europe that had to endure a reign of terror under German occupation. But it was also a day of liberation for Germany itself. After all, the landing of the Allies on the beaches of Normandy marked the beginning of the end of the barbaric system of National Socialism, of its racist fanaticism, and militarism, of its will to exterminate and its imperialistic < wipes tears > fantasies....
I noted with interest that several aged US American veterans, included by ChatGPT in Genocide Joe's entourage, were no where on the beach—or the eastern front.
archive Aug 19th, 2022
by Cat on Sun Jun 9th, 2024 at 02:53:04 PM EST
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SIDEBAR WARNING ChatGPT "hallucination" based on 2024 estimates by country.
by Cat on Sun Jun 9th, 2024 at 07:18:52 PM EST
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F24 | France's Macron calls new legislative elections over projected far-right [EPP] victory, 9 June
In an address to the nation from the Elysee presidential palace, Macron said: "I've decided to give you back the choice of our parliamentary future through the vote. I am therefore dissolving the National Assembly." The vote will take place in two rounds on June 30 and July 7, he said.
by Cat on Sun Jun 9th, 2024 at 07:27:09 PM EST
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ChatGPT | Voter turnout at record high as Macron tries to thwart far right -- live updates
Nearly 60 percent of registered voters cast their ballots before 5 p.m.—a roughly 20 percentage point increase compared with 2022. It sets the vote on track to have the highest turnout in at least 25 years.
France's leadership position in the EU, its seat on the U.N. Security Council and its military reach as a global power make this almost as much of a "world election" as Biden vs. Trump! in November. An open letter signed last weekend by 170 serving and former French diplomats said that Moscow! but also Beijing!, New Caledonia!  would see a far-right victory "as an enfeeblement of France and an invitation to interference in our national life, to aggression against Europe ... and the economic vassalisation of France and the continent."
The stakes are high as the country prepares for a political big bang: French President Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition risks annihilation, not only by the far-right National Rally (which polls show could be ruling the country as of next month), but also by the left.
EP Election 2024 Turnout (%): FR, 51
by Cat on Sun Jun 30th, 2024 at 05:56:24 PM EST
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cnn | Markets fear the French far right could trigger a FINANCIAL CRISIS, 14 June
Finance minister, Bruno Le Maire noted that France now has to pay a higher interest rate than Portugal—one of the countries bailed out during the [PIIGS] European debt crisis more than a decade ago—to borrow from investors. "This comes down to the (parties') plans that are on the table, whether we can, yes or no, finance this debt," Le Maire said.
reuters | France election 2024: Why public finances will lose, whoever win, 30 June
Already under scrutiny from ratings agencies, financial markets and Brussels, France's public finances are likely to come under more strain no matter what the outcome of a snap parliamentary election, which starts with a first round of voting on Sunday.
The outgoing government had promised to cut the budget deficit from 5.5% of Gross Domestic Product last year to a European Union ceiling of LOL! 3% by 2027—an objective that may be unattainable after the vote, which concludes with a second round on July 7.

If it forms a government, the RN wants as soon as July to cut value added (VAT) sales tax on energy, which it says would cost 7 billion euros for the rest of this year and 12 billion in a full year.

by Cat on Sun Jun 30th, 2024 at 06:51:25 PM EST
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LeChatGPT | Le Pen questions French president's 'reserved domain' on defense and foreign policy, 28 June
"Head of the armed forces, for the president, it's an honorary title since it's the prime minister who holds the purse strings. Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, has no intention of picking a quarrel with him, but he has set red lines," said Le Pen, when asked how a possible future prime minister from her party's ranks might get on with Macron. "On Ukraine, the president would not send troops," she also insisted, even though Macron and his government, in the absence of concrete progress, have for several weeks begun to clear the air on this option, speaking of "instructors" as part of a "coalition" of willing states, rather than "troops."
archive Weimar Triangle 2022 in Antagonizing, Weimar plane geometry 2024 tabloid USA reuters | France election: How does it work - and what's next?
France has had three periods of "cohabitation," where the government is of a different political stripe from the president, in its post-war history. The government has most of the power on the domestic front, but the president is the head of the military < wipes tears > and wields influence abroad. However, the division of power on foreign policy is not clear cut and that could be an issue for France's stance on the war in Ukraine or European Union policy.
lefigaro | Résultats des législatives 2024 : le RN et ses alliés largement en tête devant la gauche, la macronie distancée, June 30
by Cat on Sun Jun 30th, 2024 at 06:25:02 PM EST
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F24. France's far-right National Rally party makes big gains in first round of legislative elections
by Cat on Sun Jun 30th, 2024 at 07:26:26 PM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 30th, 2024 at 10:10:11 PM EST
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by Cat on Tue Jun 11th, 2024 at 04:45:38 AM EST
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sofagate has entered the room.
by Cat on Thu Jun 13th, 2024 at 11:27:06 PM EST
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ChatGPT | 14 MEPs vie to join European People's Party [EPP] in European Parliament, 18 June head count
The EPP group is meeting between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m. Tuesday to vote on new members.

According to a document seen by POLITICO, 7 of the 14 applicants hail from the Tisza party led by Hungarian [HU] opposition leader Péter Magyar. Two from the Dutch Farmer-Citizen Movement known as BBB, two from the Czech [CZ] Mayors and Independents party known as STAN, one from the Danish [DK] Liberal Alliance, one from the Dutch [NL] New Social Contract party and one from the German [DE] Family Party.

BBB and NSC are forming a coalition government with far-right Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. EPP leader Manfred Weber has said any politicians wishing to join the group must be pro-EU, pro-Ukraine, and in favor of the rule of law.

ibid Green EPP archive 'The new Ursula', EUSA TikTok ELECTION 2024, T -103

Prepare for a July SURGE! Axel's count of "nonaligned" seats has dropped from 100 to 89 since 10 June. I imagine, Axel prefers all the orphans are adopted by the families before summer holiday in August, when president pick fever, EC and EUCO, has subsided. Bundles of far-right "nationalist populists" groups are easier to track.

by Cat on Tue Jun 18th, 2024 at 03:29:05 PM EST
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by Cat on Tue Jun 25th, 2024 at 11:53:16 PM EST
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reuters | Super Mario could give weak EU a shot in the arm, 10 June
The official once known as "Super Mario" believes the EU must adapt to the new reality. In a speech in April he called for "radical change", saying the EU's "organisation, decision-making, and financing are designed for "the world of yesterday['—pre-Covid, pre-Ukraine, pre-conflagration in the Middle East, pre-return of great power rivalry']".
China, for example, is aiming to capture and internalise all parts of the supply chain in green and advanced technologies and is securing the access to the required resources....

The US, for its part, is using large-scale industrial policy to attract high-value domestic manufacturing capacity within its borders—including that of European firms—while using protectionism to shut out competitors and deploying its geopolitical power to re-orient and secure supply chains....

We have never had an equivalent "Industrial Deal" at the EU level, even though the Commission has been doing everything in its power to fill this gap....

Draghi is putting the finishing touches to a soon-to-be-published report on how to boost the bloc's competitiveness. This could almost serve as a personal manifesto for a top EU role, though the Italian said in 2022 that he does not want another big position.
The EU's 27 prime ministers and presidents may ultimately reject Draghi because they do not want to centralise more power. If they pick Super Mario, however, it would be a good indication they are prepared to do < wipes tears> whatever it takes to create a stronger EU.
ChatGPT LLM iterations

ChatGPT v.0 A new economics playbook is about to drop on Europe. (21.06.24)
ChatGPT v.1.5 The man who saved the euro aims to take on China and the US, 21 June
The person familiar with his report's drafting said it would assess weaknesses in Europe's competitiveness with an eye toward more coordination across EU member states, a trade policy that reduces geopolitical risks for the bloc and the development of a defense industrial capacity, among other recommendations.If Draghi's push is successful, such policies could further shake up the transatlantic relationship at a time when the U.S. is trying to build more secure supply chains, attract investment and fight climate change.
archive over-politicizing "pragmatic federalism"
by Cat on Wed Jun 26th, 2024 at 09:05:30 PM EST
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From my diary ...

Europe's Last Stand

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jun 26th, 2024 at 09:21:38 PM EST
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ChatGPT 2024 legitimacy "training" update a/o 29 June

elections.europa.eu | Turnout by country (%), provisional results a/o 28.06.24
high: Belgium, 89
low: Croatia, 21 (Baltic and Balkan states' omen)
median: 55
mode: N/A
avg: 48 (27 reporting)
elections.europa.eu | EP pie chart, provisional "family" portions a/o 27.06.24

by Cat on Sat Jun 29th, 2024 at 04:00:23 PM EST
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"world's second-largest democratic ballot after India" might want more weeks to vote?

india.gov.in |  the importance of civic responsibility

Phase 1 of the elections commenced on April 19, 2024, with a voter turnout of 66.14%. The turnout slightly increased to 66.71% in Phase 2, held on April 26, 2024. Phase 3, which took place on May 7, 2024, saw a turnout of 65.68%. Notably, Phase 4, conducted on May 13, 2024, recorded the highest voter turnout at 69.16%, demonstrating peak participation. The turnout dipped in Phase 5, held on May 20, 2024, to 62.2%. Phase 6 on May 25, 2024, had a turnout of 63.37%, while Phase 7, the final phase held on June 1, 2024, recorded a turnout of 61.63%.
by Cat on Sat Jun 29th, 2024 at 06:46:39 PM EST
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