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'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Aug 26th, 2024 at 06:27:51 PM EST
Can Kamala Harris win over disenchanted Latino voters? | The Guardian - 15 Aug 2024 |

Most southern California Chicanos reflect their state's liberal tendencies and have little in common ideologically with the majority of Miami's right-leaning Cuban Americans. Phoenix-based pollster Mike Noble notes that Latino voters whose roots go back to Colombia, Venezuela and other South American countries have been gravitating towards the Republican party over the past four years.

Latinos are not yet digging deep into their pockets to support Harris. Two Zoom fundraising calls with Black women and men held on consecutive nights right after Biden bowed out brought in a total of $2.8m. Similar Zoom calls with Latinas and Latinos for Kamala on 24 and 31 July, respectively, posted a combined net haul of $188,000.

Axios Latino has been tracking US Latinos' views of Harris in conjunction with Noticias Telemundo and the Ipsos market research and public opinion firm since the first year of the Biden administration. By the end of 2021, Axios Latino found that 48% of Latinos had a favorable opinion of Harris - but that figure had slumped to 39% by last March. A different survey of Latinos in 10 states found that sentiment persisted in Arizona and Nevada even days after Biden's fateful debate performance in late June.



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Aug 26th, 2024 at 06:28:26 PM EST
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black women?

Yesterday, I crossed the path of a headline stating that NEW! voter registrations by black women has increased 175% since the DNC tent folded, 23 Aug.

I somewhat regret reading that story. If I had, I might have learned, for example, which states sort voter registrations by race and sex.

by Cat on Fri Aug 30th, 2024 at 03:48:41 PM EST
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The vice president inherited a campaign that was in danger of falling off a cliff with Latino voters | Politico - 28 Aug 2024 |

    As much as the campaign tried to focus on policy and the existential threat posed by Trump, Cardona said, younger Latinos were unmoved.

    "Their response was pero es que es muy viejo" -- he's too old.



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Aug 26th, 2024 at 06:29:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
thehill | Harris sticks to economic pitch in first Hispanic media interview, 6 Sep
In a 10-minute radio interview with Edna Chapa, an entertainment reporter known as "Angel Baby," Harris made the case that her economic proposals are fundamentally sound, dismissing Trump's as bluster.
[...]
The full interview aired on Uforia radio stations and was livestreamed on the radio network's sites and app. Uforia is TelevisaUnivision's audio division, and it runs stations in Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Texas.
Equis Battleground Poll, p 10
Q.67 In a typical week, do you use any of the following sources to get your news and information? (%)
Univision or Telemundo (28), Spanish language radio (15), None of the above (67)
[...]
"Goldman Sachs [!], which is a very highly respected financial adviser and leader, has said that I—my plan will increase the gross national product and the GDP, and that Trump's plan would actually lower it. So, these are objective analyses by some of the smartest economists in the country and in the world," said Harris.
bloomberg | [Alec Phillips, chief political economist for]  Goldman Sees US GDP Hit If Trump Wins, Boost If Democrats Sweep (03.09.24)
Trump, monarch: "Gross domestic product would see a peak hit of - 0.5 percentage point in the second half of next year [2025Q3], inflation rate + 30-40 bpts
Harris, 2 (D) chambers: "That would result in 'a very slight boost [+ 0.5] to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.'"
Harris, 1 (D) chamber: "the effects of policy changes would be small and neutral on net," Phillips and his colleagues wrote.

eastbaytimes | [Alec Phillips, chief political economist for] Goldman sees US GDP hit if Donald Trump wins, boost If Kamala Harris, Democrats sweep (04.09.24 ditto)
Trump: a sharper slowdown, 1.25 million to 750K
Harris: 1.5 million a year"; "'We estimate that the contribution from immigration to labor force growth if Harris wins would be 10,000 per month higher than if Trump wins with divided government,' and 30,000 a month higher than if Republicans sweep, Goldman's economists wrote."

Goldman Sachs analysts on Tuesday released a paper endorsed Harris' economic policy*, estimating that Trump's proposed tariffs and immigration crackdowns would hit growth, outweighing any impulse to the economy from lower taxes. Conversely, those analysts estimated that Harris's spending and tax credit proposals would "more than offset" any deceleration caused by the higher corporate income tax she proposes.
ChatGPT | Gavin Newsom kills California bill to help undocumented immigrants buy homes, 6 Sep: "It also takes the issue off the table ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris' first scheduled debate against Trump next week." Too late! The $150K "down payment grant" already in the wind, and Kamala?!s $25K home buyer "assistance," SME "deductions", and capital gains taxes are still on the line.

* I wasted a few hours at GS sifting "research" in recession leading indicators (eg. labor market), ironically, and did not find it. Or tax analyses pertaining to forecast investment in high-risk sectors. So I selected two detailed secondary sources quoting the "note".

by Cat on Fri Sep 6th, 2024 at 11:01:31 PM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Sep 7th, 2024 at 07:37:18 AM EST
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Breton
by Cat on Sun Sep 8th, 2024 at 02:49:52 PM EST
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HARRIS @13:13: So, Donald Trump has no plan for you, and when you looat his economic plan, it's all about tax breaks for the richest people. I am offering what I describe as an opportunity economy and the best economis in our country, if not the world, have reviewed our relative plans for the future of America. What Goldman Sachs has said is that Donald Trump's plan would make the economy worse. Mine would strengthen the economy. What the Wharton School has said is, Donald Trump's lan would actually explode the deficit. Sixteen Nobel laureates have his economic plan as something that would increase inflation, and by the middle of next year would invite a recession. You just have to look at where we are and where we stand on the issues, and I'd invite you to know that Donald Trump actually has no plan for you because he is more interested in defending himself than hs is in looking out for you.
ChatGPT | Goldman Sachs CEO says report that Harris is better for economy was blown out of proportion, 13 Sep
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon called out the Democratic presidential nominee for a claim she made during Tuesday's showdown in which she touted the investment bank's analysis of her plan -- saying the Vice President blew the report out of proportion.

Solomon pointed put that the report "came from an independent analyst" and that Harris left out key details—including that the difference on the economy between the rival plans was "about two-tenths of 1%."

"I think this blew up into something that's bigger than what it was intended to be," Solomon told CNBC on Wednesday [11 Sep].

I saw a clip in embedded in a YT rant. It's also embedded in this NY Post article. The full $$$ interview is here
"I am offering what I describe as an opportunity economy, and the best economists in our country, if not the world, have reviewed our relative plans for the future of America," she said during the debate [10 Sep]. "What Goldman Sachs has said is that Donald Trump's plan would make the economy worse, mine would strengthen the economy.
Wait. There's more ...
MUIR @ 16:34: Vice President Harris, I do want to ask for your response, and you heard what the president said there, because the Biden Biden administration did keep a number of the Trump tariffs in place. So how do you respond?
HARRIS: Well, let's be clear that the Trump administration resulted in a trade deficict, one of the highest we've ever seen in the history of America. [... @17:44] What Donald Trump did was thank—Let's talk about this with COVID—was he actually thanked President Xi for what he did during COVID. Look at his tweet. Thank you, President Xi, exclamation point, when we know that Xi was responsible for lacking [?] and not giving us transparency about the origins of COVID.
by Cat on Sat Sep 14th, 2024 at 12:40:10 AM EST
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