I've no doubt prices will hit $100 in the medium term, but this will play itself out over a slightly longer timescale than half a year. This is the slow thumbscrew, and it's got many excruciating turns left 'til we hear the crunch of bone.

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

When is consumption going to start taking a hit?  It's crazy...people aren't driving less.  My commute was short anyway but now that I've switched positions, I can walk everywhere I need to get to.  That's pretty hard in North America.  

It may or may not be a bellwether. Not, of course, as to the price of oil at the end of the year ;)

My argument is: I think there is currently a speculation element in the rally, and it will take some falls from speculation highs before we reach and pass $100 due to real supply problems (but that'll happen in a few years).

We have recently some refinery breakdowns in the USA. Does this remind only me of the California 'Energy Crisis'? Is it outside the realm of possibilities that oil companies are manipulating prices, feeding the speculation bubble this way?

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

I guess that's Brent. I'm just going by the futures market as of today.

When's the cutoff? Can I bet on December 30th?

PS- You'll pay shipping charges on my bottle, right?

And although I absolutely love to win bets I'm  hoping I'll lose on this one. If not I'll take a nice chocolate liquor.

"People never do evil so throughly and happily as when they do it from moral conviction."-Blaise Pascal

I suspect we'll hit $70-$75 before the end of the month. Then, as summer demand eases, prices will draw back substantially to around $50. All of the "oil is forever" folks will be claiming victory, despite the fact that $50 is significantly above the starting price for the year.

Then, as we enter November, demand will approach or even temporarily exceed supply. Prices will double to a new inflation-adjusted high, somewhere between $90 and $100. But some of that will be over-speculation and we'll ease off a bit to around $80 by Christmas. The "oil is forever" folks will declare victory yet again. $80 will become the new long-term sustainable price...until next summer and the next push above $100.

I'm down for $92.50, Brent, because I spun a big wheel and that's the number that came up (and because I think there'll just be slow, steady, and inescapable upward pressure).

Now, which one of you is Brent?

"...psychopaths have little difficulty infiltrating the domains of...politics, law enforcement, (and) government." Dr. Robert Hare

That's my best guesstimate with winter coming on.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

If the US, for example, bombs Iran then all bets are off - there is no way that prices will not skyrocket to the $150 or more level. If there is a major terrorist attack on key Saudi or Gulf oil facilities, then, again, the price will skyrocket. If there is a bad second half to the hurricane season and this knocks out Gulf of Mexico production, then $85-$90 per barrel is possible; if Winter comes early and there is a serious cold spell in the US, then $70-$72 is possible.

If, however, it just comes down to those boring supply and demand issues, coupled with a 15-20% risk premium, then we are looking at a trading range between $55 and $65 for the Autumn and into the first half of the Northern hemisphere winter. My best guess for the 31st December is $63.75 for Brent crude.

but where the money is going ? i never read anything about that ? where are the investment in these countries or on our sharemarket?

I agree with londanium's reasoning, but I would add the winding down of the US involvement in Iraq as the US military sees the handwriting on the wall and the anti-war movement picks up a little steam. This sends some fears into the market as they really see how messed up the situation is.

There will be a new wave of attacks on oil installations in Iraq as this begins and as the insurgency realizes that creating oil uncertainty is easier and more effective than killing US and Iraqi forces.

The Bush saber rattling vis-a-vis Iraq will die down, but the nervousness in the markets that it is likely to create will remain.  

This will be countered by a serious "don't worry" PR push by big oil in order to calm the situation. It will be sufficient to slow the progress of the climb.

My bet is $105, Brent.

Before Katrina I considered this on the pessimistic side, basing it on a regular cold winter in the North and North-East as well as China's demand for heating oil.
But after Katrina, I wonder if I am being optimistic.