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sure, it's propaganda. so is 100 percent of what's on TV today. let's fight back :-)
a jewel of a post.
ta! 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
Given our level of individualism we're as competitive as anyone, which will make demand side solutions easier. What I mean is this: transitioning the competitive spirit from "he with the most toys wins" to "he with the smallest eco footprint wins" will be easier than people think. We're burned out as we have nothing left to give to the work-all-day consume-all-night lifestyle: it has reached its zenith and can only go into decline. We desperately want something different but most don't dare try it (or even think it) until it's socially "safe" to do so. People like you/us need to lead the way to provide the example and social safety. I really believe this by the way - at least on nights when I'm not wearing my "end is nigh" t-shirt.
you are the media you consume.
But it;s already being altered -- and in Los Angeles, Car Heaven just by a puny (by euro standards) rise in gas prices.
"I was really, really worried that first day," Petersen says. "Within one week, I was going fast and enjoying going fast." Petersen is a good example of the new face of bike commuting - professional and average folks who are abandoning their daily drive for bikes in increasing numbers for a variety of reasons: fitness, a refusal to sit in traffic, politics or pocketbook, especially during days of skyrocketing gas prices. Every day, according to the Los Angeles County Bicycle Coalition, between 100,000 and 240,000 Angelenos ride a bike and 24,000 commute by bicycle. There are signs that the number is climbing and set to climb higher. For the last seven years, large employers in the El Segundo area have been conducting a Bike-to-Work challenge - including one last Tuesday, during national Bike-to-Work week, that saw 306 cyclists pedaling to work versus 245 the year before. (This year's winner: Raytheon, which beat Aerospace Corp., Los Angeles Air Force Base and Boeing when 61 of its employees showed up to work on bikes.) Demand for on-site bike commuting seminars at workplaces has surged, including requests from big employers such as LAX, 20th Century Fox and Disneyland, according to Kastle Lund, executive director of Los Angeles County Bicycle Coalition. Demand has surged too, for hybrids, the kinds of bikes often ridden by new commuters - bicycles with wide tires, flat handle bars and a relaxed riding position - and they're being purchased by customers who haven't ridden much in the past, says David Landia, assistant manager of Budget Pro Bikes in Eagle Rock. According to the National Bicycle Dealers Assn., last year was a bumper one for bike sales, which totaled close to 20 million. Los Angeles is working to become more bike friendly. It recently completed a bike lane that runs parallel to the Orange Line, and the first phase of the San Fernando Road Bike Path, which will run from Roxford to San Fernando, is scheduled to open in a few months, says Michelle Mowery, senior bicycle coordinator for the City of Los Angeles.
Petersen is a good example of the new face of bike commuting - professional and average folks who are abandoning their daily drive for bikes in increasing numbers for a variety of reasons: fitness, a refusal to sit in traffic, politics or pocketbook, especially during days of skyrocketing gas prices.
Every day, according to the Los Angeles County Bicycle Coalition, between 100,000 and 240,000 Angelenos ride a bike and 24,000 commute by bicycle. There are signs that the number is climbing and set to climb higher. For the last seven years, large employers in the El Segundo area have been conducting a Bike-to-Work challenge - including one last Tuesday, during national Bike-to-Work week, that saw 306 cyclists pedaling to work versus 245 the year before. (This year's winner: Raytheon, which beat Aerospace Corp., Los Angeles Air Force Base and Boeing when 61 of its employees showed up to work on bikes.)
Demand for on-site bike commuting seminars at workplaces has surged, including requests from big employers such as LAX, 20th Century Fox and Disneyland, according to Kastle Lund, executive director of Los Angeles County Bicycle Coalition.
Demand has surged too, for hybrids, the kinds of bikes often ridden by new commuters - bicycles with wide tires, flat handle bars and a relaxed riding position - and they're being purchased by customers who haven't ridden much in the past, says David Landia, assistant manager of Budget Pro Bikes in Eagle Rock. According to the National Bicycle Dealers Assn., last year was a bumper one for bike sales, which totaled close to 20 million.
Los Angeles is working to become more bike friendly. It recently completed a bike lane that runs parallel to the Orange Line, and the first phase of the San Fernando Road Bike Path, which will run from Roxford to San Fernando, is scheduled to open in a few months, says Michelle Mowery, senior bicycle coordinator for the City of Los Angeles.
OK this is not hordes of people, but it's a measurable response, it's behaviour change from people who were not already in the choir .... and this is mostly without major incentives or penalties, just pricey parking and rising gas costs. Imagine what behavioural changes creative policy could encourage?
<obligatory carping disclaimer>I have very mixed feelings about all this "facilities construction" stuff justified by increasing cycling numbers (or alleged to lure increasing numbers to cycling) but the facilities debate is far too deep and wide for a general thread.</ocd> The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
the odds loom large and heavy against us...
what other choice but to try?
loved your poems at your website, btw...
microdoggerel, indeed 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
You want to change that then you need to change the policies that make such behaviour rational for individuals. There is no contradiction between people on the one hand doing what's best for them under the current circumstances - e.g. buying a house way out in the exurbs because of the astronomical prices for family housing in the city and inner suburbs, or buying goods that have been shipped halfway around the world and back again - and supporting policies that will bring the individual good in line with the social good. Teaching people about choices that make sense on both the individual and the social level is a good idea. Berating middle and working class families for not spending more for less, as if they just had the luxury to choose otherwise, is counterproductive arrogance. So push for more money for public transport as opposed to roads, for changing zoning laws so that you can build new housing in urban and inner suburbs with commuter rail, to tax inefficient vehicles, for laws that encourage renewable energy.
The neolibs were able to do it for stuff that hurts both individual and society, surely progressives should be able to figure out how to do it for policies that help society. At the same time convince upper middle class progressives that they have to make sacrifices too, and not just the old style progressive ones like taxation. When I listen to people in my neighbourhood complaining about the evils of exurban sprawl in one breath, while opposing building high-rise urban housing in the next, I feel like slamming my head on the wall.
high-rise urban housing in the next, I feel like slamming my head on the wall.
Why does urban housing have to be high-rise? Most European cities have higher population densities than their American counterparts, yet high-rise buildings are not permitted. I tend to agree that it would ruin the historic nature (i.e. soul) of a city.
Maybe if Americans were not so insistent on living in single-family homes, rather than in apartments...
Higher densities change the character of neighbourhoods, but given growing populations you need to build somewhere. That means that someplace is going to get changed. NYC is quite densely populated - over ten thousand per square km in 2000 and rising. What I'm talking about here is whether a strip of old industrial area lying between a six lane road plus rail tracks and a very pretty old low to mid rise area should be developed as high rises or not. The proposed development is also right next to a commuter rail station and the highest concentration of subway lines after downtown and midtown Manhattan (both primarily office districts), making it ideal for high density living. The nice neighbourhood will remain intact, its skyline will change and there will be more people in the area. My neighbourhood which lies on the other side of that big road and is also beautiful will see that skyline from the other side. We'll be fine.
As for ruining the character of a city - I don't know about that. Areas like the Upper West Side have their own character even though the main streets tend to be built up quite high
_Maybe if Americans were not so insistent on living in single-family homes, rather than in apartments... _
Well yes, but again, I'm in NYC, so you're preaching to the choir...
That said, people will come around when they have to, and not a moment before. Everyone has a different comfort zone with regard to facing truth; the art is to find that zone, and push right to the edge. If you want to know the absolute, dead worst that can happen, read about Easter Island. I used to think that scenerio was unavailable to us but I am no longer so sure. Every step we can take away from that outcome we can count as an actual plus.
At this moment, Cuba is our foremost example of successful, sudden de-industrialization, but its political system, which played a key role in the process, is rather unique. "Success" not in quotes, because they avoided outright starvation--it doesn't get much better than that.
No matter what happens, the world will become local again. Europe perhaps less so than the US, since you have functioning rail systems that will be usable well into the crisis. Still, the point is that the essentials of life, such as food, will consist of that which can be obtained locallly. This is why organic farming is so important (industrial agriculture is going down soon) and permaculture is a beacon of hope.
Political chaos is sure to ensue, and only robust, local social structures have any hope of surviving this. The essential nature of this chaos will be people grabbing what they can to maintain their past ways, and thus sealing off their own and their neighbors' futures. It will happen: Once you have dealt with the basics of survival, it is the biggest threat, and can undo everything. (A typical example: Right now the city of Los Angeles is trying to shut down community gardens and take the land to build more freeways. The gardens will determine whether people live or die, but before it is finished that freeway will be useless.)
The US--because of its more extensive wrong choices--will be going down before Europe, so you will get lots of case studies from us what not to do. The Fates are kind.
In the US, agriculture is very oil intensive--it depends on oil derived fertilizers and pesticides, farm labor is mechanized, as is processing--which is extensive--and then the food is transported by truck hundreds or thousands of miles. Gas prices this spring have doubled--merely doubled--and already the farm sector is experiencing distress.
Agriculture and transport will collapse about the same time, for the same reason.
I think it will collapse within two years.
At which point our political system will--umm--no longer function in its usual way . . . The Fates are kind.
However - I'm fascinated by the persistence of apocalyptic memes. And I've seen so many now that I'll confess to not being entirely convinced by imminent doom. Specifically:
Surviving the end of the cold war, especially during its peak in the early 80s.
Watching various apocalyptic End Times New Age predictions which - coincidentally or not - were also popular in the 80s. Many of these were very, very silly, but that didn't stop people selling - and buying - maps of what the US would look like after Atlantis rose again.
Living through Y2K, which was marginally less silly, and the jury still seems to be out on how apocalyptic it would have been without massive contractor effort in the run up.
And now The Coming Crash...
There almost seems to be a need for this kind of economic disaster, especially on the Left. Possibly because the alternative would be slower, but much worse.
But something about the psychological power of the narrative is still interesting, and it's not clear yet to what extent there's a mythological element to it.
The Great Depression in the US followed a period of economic centralization and "prosperity" at the top, of relaxing of financial regulations and controls, and gross mismanagement similar in structure though smaller in scale to the economic conditions we are seeing now. The one great difference was that the GD was a collapse of the banking system only--the physical infrastructure remained intact and the US was able to recover with its strong industrial base. So while the signs of a banking collapse are present now, the means for recovery are not.
Even so, food was a problem as farmers destoyed food that people needed but had no money to buy.
After the Second World War food was again a problem in Europe--at least on the continent.
By the end of the Second World War nuclear weapons were invented, and were soon extensively deployed. The possibility of civilization ending through nuclear war has remained with us ever since. This is new, even if--since the end of the Cold War--the odds seem small, and the effect on people's sense of well-being is deep. Flying saucers make their public appearance about this time--and without weighing in on that subject--I will venture that the public attention is connected to underlying unease. I would propose this same unease underlies the public response to disaster predictions you cite. I might add that now that Bush is promoting nuclear war (those "bunker busters") against Iran, the world can hardly be said to be in good hands.
In short, recent history gives us no reason to think that people will behave well, or that things will always be fine.
Of course, the things I described were merely shattering, "civilization" did continue, even if the changes did render one age largely incomprehensible to another. (And it did--go back and read stuff written before WWI: The atmosphere of prevailing thought is nearly inaccessible.)
Let's look at religious trends: In the 19th century a new fundamentalist Christianity was invented that saw the apocalyptic gospels of the Bible as applying to the immediate future. Though based on wrong scholarship and bogus interpretation, and despite being proved wrong on particulars several times, this apparently crazy version of Christianity gained adherents in the US to the point where at the turn of the 21st century it is a major political force. One of the odd things about this fundamentalism is that adherents believe as Christians that they should do the devil's work to advance God's timetable for bringing the end of the world about. As a practical matter, they support policies of environmental destruction and political disruption that interfere with long-range human survival, deliberately.
Lastly, geology is rather against us. Peak oil may be a new topic of public discourse, but the issue has been with us as a practical matter for 35 years, and as a theoretical one longer than that. There were things that could have been done to prepare--on the scale of an entire civilization--but they weren't, and now arithmetic is not in our favor, in the sense that the civilization we have been living in simply cannot continue, and therefore won't. I cited Cuba to show that mass-die off is at least theoretically avoidable, but that said, the future can look nothing like the present.
A newer wrinkle in geology is climate change, which has been a theoretical issue as long as peak oil, but which has shown up as a proven problem in only about the last decade. As climate changes it will disrupt the biosphere and make human survival more difficult. How difficult? The folk of sub-Saharan Africa are already fated to die, as the desert expands south. As for the rest of us--there is really no way to tell how bad it will be. Where I live now will be under water before the century is out.
Is a bang better than a whimper? A good question. We are currently in a race between malign technologies and the undermining of the support infrastructure for those technologies. Which will win? What the US government has planned in the way of surveillance certainly makes Stalin's police state seem an amateur effort, but whether they will be able to implement their fantasies is far from sure. Similarly in biology and biological control. Politically, the age of independent science is just about over, increasingly, new discoveries are going to be paid for and applied to strategies of domination. This is, fortunately, self-limiting, but the whimper scenerio implies a longer period of truly amazing agony. Also, the longer the process takes, the greater the destruction to the biosphere--we are already on the boundary of the greated die-off of species since the end of the dinosaurs--the more prolonged, the starker the boundary will be. That a large die-off means more opportunities for new species, is a good thing if you are alive to enjoy them a million years from now.
So certainly a crash seems better. Except. To traverse the crash well takes preparation, and that needs time.
A standard optimization problem with contradictory constraints. The Fates are kind.
So on the one hand there's the view that things will always carry on as they have done - which will always be popular for a generation that has had a minimum of real social, economic and military dislocation.
On the other there's a kind of unconscious counterpart in Stories of Apocalypse.
In the middle there are real problems which fall into a psychological blindspot because dealing with them realistically would mean stepping out the narrative.
And since there are pay-offs for both extremes - avoidance of anxiety with denial, and satisfaction of revenge and punishment fantasies for apocalypse - the realistic option of dealing maturely with real problems is never quite as popular as it could be.
The US has a better arable land per person ratio than Europe does - don't underestimate the importance of that if/when things get really bad. We also have plenty of water (overall that is, the southwest of course is a different matter) and coal. Nor is the US situated near a lot of states that will fail quickly unlike Europe. Basically, don't ignore the non-human factors.
the gap between present lifestyle and preconquest native american is a lot bigger there than here in yurp.
the other big difference is the amount of guns.
i wonder if mexico will build a wall to keep the hungry yankee day-workers out one day. 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
So taxing air fuel ? Nah !! He's building more airport runways instead.
Energy conservation ? Nope, he's building nuclear power stations that can't be ready before the energy crunch.
etc etc.
Also, the Murdoch newspapers often confuse the message of global warming, promoting it as a good thing of hot summers, warmer winters, decent UK wine etc etc. And of course, every time there's a cold snap, they ask "Global warming ? What global warming ?" It is difficult for effective action when there is som much effective propaganda against reason.
So, I think we need an unambiguous sign that this is urgent and now. Which is why I sometimes look interestedly at the Greenland Icecap situation. It might take something as dramatic as that, which may happen in the next few years to convince people that things have to happen now.
It's like the frog in the pot of boiling water, this gentle descent into chaos will never have a moment of clarity and without that we'll just stay still till it's way too late. keep to the Fen Causeway
This reminds me of a passage from Michael Lewis' Liar's Poker, an account of his career in investment banking. He describes how good investment bankers get promoted to bank management, but traits that made them good managers--ruthlessness, aggressiveness, independence, and the like--make them lousy managers, but "they can only be washed out by proven failure"--i.e, when the enterprises they manage go bankrupt. Despite plain evidence that they cannot manage, no earlier correction is possible.
Perhaps our whole civilization is behaving like this. The Fates are kind.
It's 50 min and requires the GOOGLE media viewer.
link:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2386621792940328510&q=genre%3Acomedy+is%3Afree+duration% 3Along "The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819
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