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Note to self: have to visit Hamburg and watch a St. Pauli game.




"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Fri Feb 22nd, 2008 at 10:08:02 AM EST
Weltpokalsiegerbesieger?

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Fri Feb 22nd, 2008 at 11:05:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's no bigger title to win. And St. Pauli shares this honor with my own club, FC Homburg.

/threadjack?

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Fri Feb 22nd, 2008 at 11:27:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In honor of a fine diary illuminating that despite amurkan preconceptions, Hamburgers can vote, i'll join you for a visit to a St. Pauli Spiel.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin
by Crazy Horse on Fri Feb 22nd, 2008 at 03:11:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
* Traditionally a SPD stronghold, home of former chancellor Helmut Schmidt

The seven years with the SPD's absence from power are connected to the turbulent rise and fall of a right-populist, Ronald Barnabas Schill.


(From RotDorn)

Schill was a judge, who made a name with strict sentences handed out in a theatrical way, earning the epithet Richter Gnadenlos ( = Judge Merciless), and at the same time also played for media attention as high-society playboy. Then he formed a party sharing his name (SCHILL), with an 'anti-establishment'  and law-and-order platform, the latter verging on xenophobia.

In the 2001 elections, he achieved a shocking 19.4%. The CDU fell back to a mere 26.2%. Yet, like Schüssel in Austria with Haider, CDU leader Ole von Beust decided against a crodon sanitaire, coalitioned with the right-populists to get into power, and let them destroy themselves once in office (whatever the collateral damage).

That self-destruction first manifested itself in fallouts between members and corruption affairs. Then Schill was accused of snorting cocaine by a party member. Then Schill's promotion of his own girlfriend led to his dismissal, in 2003. Schill then went before TV cameras with a totally disintegrated look (below) and took revenge by making public that von Beust is gay.


(From Dirk Burkhard)

But that backfired on him, conservative CDU voters stood by their man while others got sympathetic. Being in trouble federally, the SPD completely failed to capitalise on the situation, and when von Beust called snap elections, he got that stunning 47.2%.

Meanwhile, Schill was excluded by his own party, at the same time, he fought off the cocaine accusations with the testing of a hair sample. However, later evidence suggested tricksery and a second, secret, positive test.

Then a much more serious accusation surfaced: Schill was implicated in an affair of forced prescription of psychopharmatica and illegal internment of suspected youth criminals at a closed youth facility. He fled to Brazil, returning to Germany only last year.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Feb 22nd, 2008 at 12:38:52 PM EST
The Social Democrats should remind people of this story whenever the CDU accuses them of restoring the communists reputation ("hoffähig machen"). I didn't hear it so far.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Sat Feb 23rd, 2008 at 07:14:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly. What's more, Schill wasn't supporting von Beust's CDU and his FDP satellite from the outside, like what the Hessen Left Party is offering Ypsilanti: he was in the city government, as interior minister!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Feb 23rd, 2008 at 08:26:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The coalition poker in Hessen intensified just before the Hamburg elections, and now affect the campaign there.

I expected an SPD-Greens minority government with Left Party outside support as the most likely outcome of the Hessen state elections. Though, I am not sure the SPD has now really decided for that.

The constelation gained prominent advocates, including, forcefully, Daniel Cohn-Bendit. But Hessen leader Ypsilanti kempt mum.

Then what I see as a trial balloon to (1) test this option, (2) tell the liberal FDP that they won't be lobbied at any price, started with a report by Hannover paper Neue Presse that Ypsilanti does consider it, at least for a 4-5 month trial period with possible new elections after it. The trial balloon continued by a careful non-denial denial from the federal party leadership and silence from Ypsilanti.

The reception has been outrage from the conservatives, and a media frenzy that played up prominent criticism like that from from prominent SPD members including federal faction leader Peter Struck. The Hamburg angle: the last SPD major/PM, Henning Voscherau called the discussion "extremely reckless against the SPD".

There is speculation that the trial balloon is party boss Kurt Beck's un-coordinated move. At any rate, while Ypsilanti's inner-party rival (the centrist whom she defeated in the leadership vote) spoke out against the option, he also vowed that if there is a vote, every SPD member will support Ypsilanti.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Feb 22nd, 2008 at 01:13:26 PM EST
Oh, and speaking of the SPD, forgot to mention that our friend Wolfgang Clement again opened his mouth, this time leading to the kick-off of the party dismissal procedure.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Feb 22nd, 2008 at 04:40:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some more random facts from Hamburg :-)



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Feb 22nd, 2008 at 01:24:39 PM EST
I've always enjoyed Hamburg - a feeling of down-to-earthness.

Perhaps the wierdest night of my life began at the Atlantic Hotel. It involved Baroness Stups von Mechow, Santana and a B-List West German actress in hotpants, whose name I do not recall.

It later involved a chateau surrounded by goats, and the last thing I recall (after the soundman rolled a giant spliff) was the director of the movie standing in what appeared to be a cuckoo-clock, expounding on existentialism, surrounded by naked ladies.

Fortunately that was a long time ago: the Baroness is probably a CDP king-maker now....

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Feb 22nd, 2008 at 01:34:51 PM EST
Sounds like a traditional Bretheren of Caol Ila Abend.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin
by Crazy Horse on Fri Feb 22nd, 2008 at 03:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or maybe "Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds."

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Sat Feb 23rd, 2008 at 03:36:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Gravity's rainbow" by Pynchon. With Sven as the Rocketman.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Sat Feb 23rd, 2008 at 07:11:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Projections coming in 20 minutes. We'll see if it really hurts the Social Democrats to speculate about cooperation with the Linke.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 11:39:01 AM EST
Personal prediction minutes before the polls close:

  • FDP scrapes in narrowly

  • No SPD+Greens majority

  • since von Beust is no Koch, Grand Coalition likely

However, if von Beust falls, that will weaken Merkel in the party.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 11:57:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
First projections:
CDU 43
SPD 34
Greens 10
FDP 5
Left 7

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 12:06:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
99 seats, right?

Then 50 for majority.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 04:37:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Scratch that, I now realise you were talking percentage...

And the seats was in the diary.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 04:38:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
NDR Online - Nachrichten - Wahl Hamburg- Prognose: CDU vorn, FDP muss zittern
Nach der 18-Uhr-Prognose von Infratest dimap im Auftrag des NDR kommt die Union unter Bürgermeister Ole von Beust auf 42,5 Prozent der Stimmen und verliert damit 4,7 Punkte. Die SPD erreicht mit ihrem Spitzenkandidaten Michael Naumann 34,0 Prozent, das sind 3,5 Punkte mehr als 2004. Drittstärkste Kraft werden der Prognose zufolge die Grünen, die in Hamburg GAL heißen, mit 9,5 Prozent (minus 2,8). Erstmals in der Bürgerschaft vertreten ist die Linke, die bei ihrem ersten Wahlantritt in der Hansestadt auf 6,5 Prozent kommt. Die FDP liegt laut Prognose bei genau 5,0 Prozent und kann damit um 2,2 Punkte zulegen. Für ein schwarz-gelbes Bündnis würden die Stimmenanteile von CDU und FDP allerdings nicht reichen.

CDU 42.5% (-4.7)
SPD 34.0% (+3.5)
GAL (Greens) 9.5% (-2.8)
Left Party 6.5%
FDP 5.0% (+2.2)

Nothing decided yet, but it's apparent that the media campaign against the SPD worked.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 12:05:31 PM EST
ZDF: projects the same numbers except CDU at 43.0%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 12:08:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Local public television NDR found the fitting von Beust photo for the situation:



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 12:11:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Participation projected at 64%, 4 below the already low figure in 2004. Methinks the extra absentees are SocDems scared away by the media frenzy.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 12:16:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seats:
CDU 53
FDP 6
SPD 42
GAL 12
Linke 8

As expected, nothing is sure.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 12:26:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Everyone has declared himself a winner by now. Can't stand it, I'm going out now.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 12:47:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, business as usual... but the coalition poker is a bit more interesting.

Von Beust announced he wants talks with SPD and GAL, "so that the Left and the Communists have no influence" (heh). Green leader Christa Goetsch has not ruled out taking up the offer -- but would I be in her place, I would be rather unforthcoming at first, this would be dangerous for the party.

What's interesting is that his SPD predecessor, Voscherau, wants first talks between CDU and Greens, instead of his party.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 12:59:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
AFP: Communist wins Cyprus presidential vote

NICOSIA (AFP) -- Communist party leader Demetris Christofias won the presidential election in Cyprus on Sunday, a result set to give a major boost to efforts to reunify the island after 34 years of division.

Parliament speaker Christofias, 61, garnered 53.36 percent of the vote against 46.64 percent for conservative former foreign minister Ioannis Kasoulides, according to final results of an election billed by the local media as one of the most crucial in the history of Cyprus.

I hope we'll get a diary from talos or UpstateNY or anyone else closer to the fire.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 12:43:15 PM EST
I've been following this, Dodo, and my reaction is quite skeptical as to whether this will yield any movement on unification talks.

I wrote this last week:

The next year will be incredibly interesting for Cyprus. The EU and Washington will read the new leadership as a good chance to resurrect the Annan Plan. Given the electoral realities on the island, and the fact that 76% voted against the plan, it will be interesting to see how much the new leaders actually resist the plan. The fact that AKEL--the most pro-unification group in Cyprus--rejected the Annan Plan 5 in 2004 is meaningful.

Papdapoulos was an awful diplomat, and a bad interlocutor. That being said, his biggest failing may very well be that he was simply "there" in 2004. It's my understanding that any of these leaders would have rejected the agreement in 2004, but it served them politically in 2008 to distance themselves from Papadopoulos.

Though DISY supported the plan, I'm reminded of how often in the past people like Clerides acted exactly as Papadopoulos did when they were in charge and had a chance to come to an agreement. Each time the leadership realized they had given away too much and scotched it. The 2003 Annan Plan 3 was perhaps the only time in the problem's history that they had a plan they could live with.

Ultimately, the new leader will also be regarded as a nationalist hardliner, two adjectives thrown around rather easily by the Western press these days (I'm also referring to Serbia's Kostunica, who was once hailed as a Western leading Democrat, the darling of the West, translator of the Federalist Papers into Serbian).

The end game is still going to be Turkish accession into the EU quite apart from the Cyprus problem. If Turkey feels as though entrance is likely, only then will they negotiate terms acceptable to the Greek Cypriots.

The main differences between the two candidates in today's election are that the right-winger, DISY's Kassoulides, favored the Anna Plan before the referendum, and that the left-winger, AKEL's Dimitris Christofias, was against it. These facts alone are not enough, however, to tell you where either party actually stands on Annan 5. For instance, in multiple examples from the past, the DISY leaders have spoken of great enthusiasm for unification only to feel slightly queasy about the actual plans when they've been in power. Glafcos Clerides, Kassoulides successor, is now renowned as a moderate statesmen, but on multiple occasions he has nixed an agreement when he perceived that it gave away the farm to Turkey. It could very well be that DISY only favored the Annan Plan 5 because they were not in power, and so their YES vote presented an effective counterpoint against Papadopoulos, a man they knew would vote NO. Plus, DISY has been one of the more anti-Turkish parties in its history. Ironic that they are now portrayed as the most pro-unification.

AKEL, on the other hand, with their roots in socialist politics, much like the party in power on the Turkish Cypriot side, has always maintained ties with the Turks to the north. They have been the driving force for unification for a long period. Ironically, when Papadopoulos came into power, he offered a power sharing agreement with AKEL, and that held sway with AKEL party leaders when it came time to make a decision on Annan Plan 5. AKEL voted no with Papadopoulos' DIKO, even though many party regulars were in favor of the plan. It must be said that in last week's horse-trading, the DIKO party advised party members to vote for Christofias in today's election because of promises that AKEL made to DIKO on cabinet positions. So, the party most sympathetic to Turkish Cypriot concerns historically is now in power, and ironically they have cut a deal with the party which is not too fond of the Annan Plan 5.

I am of the opinion that it doesn't really matter who is in power. The citizens who voted 76% against the plan pretty much know what they want. Once someone ascends to the Republic's presidency, then opinion on reunification seems to coalesce into a position very much like Papadopoulos', and all criticism of that position seems to be political posturing by the opposition. The number of voters is actually small. A huge percentage of them, 1/3rd, are refugees from the north. The property issue is a big obstacle regardless of party. The presence of Turkish troops is also a big obstacle. These are more or less national issues.

Personality and history might make a difference here, but I don't think so. Papadopoulos was hamfisted and blundering in his diplomatic attempts. Christofias has contact with the Turkish Cypriots. That may make a difference but I doubt it. Ultimately, the referendum in 2004 will always prove a major obstacle for unification. As many of you know, I am of the opinion that Cyprus' entry into the EU was not a major obstacle for Turkey, as most of the EU presented it. I believe the referendum is a much much bigger obstacle. Whether Cyprus is in the EU or not, it just doesn't matter. As a matter of course, Greece would have NEVER voted Turkey in while it was still occupying a European country. So it doesn't matter that Cyprus is in. What matters is that Turkey still occupies Cyprus. The referendum on the other hand established the UN's imprimatur over a plan that is absolutely a no-go for Greek Cypriots. Not only does it not allow the right of return for Greeks to the north, and allow a 20 year presence of Turkish troops, it requires the Republic of Cyprus to repay the refugees who lost their homes. Ostensibly, since the refugees themselves are taxpayers, they will be required to pay for the loss of their homes. The plan is a really putrid one, if you ask me. And once it was cobbled together by the US and Kofi Annan, PM Erdogan of Turkey was quoted in Turkish papers as responding, "We got everything we wanted." Now, maybe he was just asying it because the skepticism coming from the Turkish military. I don't know. But I do know that the Annan Plan's mere existence is now a huge huge problem for reconciliation. Why in the world would the Turks move away from its provisions? They won't. And I don't blame them.

In Turkish newspapers the endgame is spoken about rather openly. No deal on Cyprus until Turkey is assured of a spot in the EU. And even better, keep the Cyprus problem up in the air so that Cyprus can be used as a bargaining card right at the very end of negotiations.

The basic parameters of governance have already been agreed to by everyone. A bizonal bicommunal federation with minority right of veto over international issues. Ironically enough, the deal for the Greek side gets worse anytime they reject a previous plan for favoring Turkey. In 1974, the initial plan discussed in Switzerland after the collapse of the coup d'etat was of a split into autonomous havens. Three weeks later after peace talks commenced, Turkey invaded again and split the country in two--a gambit that surprised even Henry Kissinger, judging by the recent release of classified US State Dept. documents. The 1980s agreement was far far better than the Annan Plan 5. There's no guarantee for the Greek Cypriots that the final plan will not be much worse than Annan 5. So, you might have movement there among Greeks who will accept their losses and say, "Whatever." But many will also argue that Annan 5 is actually much much worse than no plan at all. Precisely because it prevents them from returning to properties and requires that they compensate themselves.

Consider, a Turkey that enters the EU will abide by the Aquis. Which means Greek Cypriots will be provided freedom of movement to the north and the right to return to their property by virtue of the Aquis. This is why entering the EU was important for the Greek Cypriots, not because of veto threats over Turkey. So, the Greek side may agree to Annan 5 with the knowledge that the deal gets worse with every passing generation, or they may simply decide that doing nothing or even partition is actually better than the Annan Plan.

On the Turkish side, short of a major uprising and demonstrations by Turkish Cypriots tired of Turkey's encroachment on Cypriot political and cultural life (and there are a lot of them very concerned about the Turkish military's dictats and the influx of Turkish settlers), I don't believe they'll budge from Annan Plan 5, nor do I believe they will seek an alternate deal up until that time that Turkey is assured entry. It could happen that you have mass populist pressure in the north to cut a deal that makes a few more concessions to the Greek side, but then they'd be butting up against the Turkish deep state.

In short, I'm a pessimist on Cyprus's reunification, though I do believe there is some hope, some surprise by the actors on the ground.

This is a very small community, a country no bigger than a small European city. They all know each other. That's both a burden and an advantage to reconciliation.

by Upstate NY on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 03:09:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is definitely a diary-length comment. Could you re-post?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 03:39:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Certainly, I will.
by Upstate NY on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 03:48:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Upstate NY:
Consider, a Turkey that enters the EU will abide by the Aquis. Which means Greek Cypriots will be provided freedom of movement to the north and the right to return to their property by virtue of the Aquis. This is why entering the EU was important for the Greek Cypriots, not because of veto threats over Turkey. So, the Greek side may agree to Annan 5 with the knowledge that the deal gets worse with every passing generation, or they may simply decide that doing nothing or even partition is actually better than the Annan Plan.
You seem to be suggesting that the property claims may be ultimately resolved by the European Court of Justice.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 05:00:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They are already being tried in European courts now.

But ultimately with the acquis, a European Court will simply ask the EU member (Turkey or the TRNC) to set up a local court to decide on these property issues.

The problem right now is that the TRNC is unrecognized so claims get funneled up to the European Courts. Once the north joins the EU, it will be responsible for making these property decisions, knowing of course that they can be appealed ultimately to EU bodies.

The TRNC right now does not vouchsafe stolen properties for those who are in effect squatting on Greek Cypriot land. The land registry in the north is in chaos (for that matter so is the one in the south). Whoever buys up north cannot be assured that they will keep their land.

by Upstate NY on Mon Feb 25th, 2008 at 10:06:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Whoever buys up north cannot be assured that they will keep their land.

I am mystified that Britons can actually be convinced to buy "villas" in Northern Cyprus.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2008 at 10:42:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Britons lose all sense when "cheap" property is involved.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2008 at 10:44:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A friend of mines grandmother has a house on Cyprus, that has been inaccessible for many years due to the fact that the green line is on top of it.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2008 at 10:53:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The FDP is now under the mark (4.8% in ARD's 20:30 prediction).

Not an altogether bad result if the FDP really fails to get in. I predict a grand coalition. As the senate tilts heavily towards the left, the SPD should be able to get something out of it.

P.S. the CDU's mayoral candidate, Von Beust, had a favorability rating of 56% going into the election, and 'a CDU led coalition' held 49% against 'a SPD coalition' at 39%. With that kind of polling, I doubt you can ascribe the result to fear-mongering against the left party (the FDP's failure to get 5% also plays into that).

The result rather shows that Naumann failed to make the argument for him against Von Beust effectively.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 02:54:12 PM EST
I doubt you can ascribe the result to fear-mongering against the left party
The effect seems to be in the range of 2-4%. The real question for the SPD is: how many percent would they lose if they declared a possible left alliance before a federal election? If the number is smaller than the percentage the Linke is able to get, the option might be considered.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 03:05:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The question is whether the SPD is really prepared to do that. Their ideal remains a red-green alliance. I don't seem them going into a red-red-green alliance on the federal level, unless the leadership is replaced.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 03:16:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Agree: that won't happen before it happens locally in the West and survives a term.

Lest we forget, the first coalition with the Greens, two decades ago also in Hessen, was also 'scandalous' at first, and it took a decade for the option to materialise at federal level, too.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 03:33:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They're not prepared now, but I was thinking long-term. Some will start to consider the option and the leadership naturally changes over time (in all three parties). 2009 will be too early.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 03:51:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With that kind of polling, I doubt you can ascribe the result to fear-mongering against the left party (the FDP's failure to get 5% also plays into that).

I was comparing polls in the last few weeks with the actual result, and I was more thinking of the media thematising the SPD itself ("Beck problem", "Wortbruch" and so forth) rather than the Left Party directly. Though, that doesn't explain the Left Party's failure to get as much as in the polls (especially given that it had those high figures even in all the post-Wegner-scandal polls, too).

That Naumann failed to make the argument for him, I don't dispute at all. Already those polls I compared to showed that.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 03:31:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As a demonstration, look at the ZDF homepage: lin to an op-ed with the title SPD vor der Zerreißprobe ( = c. SPD in danger of tearing apart), and an article on SPD leader Beck's reactions, with some interesting passages:

Naumann sagte auf die Frage, ob die SPD-Linke-Debatte den Hamburger Sozialdemokraten geschadet habe: "Hilfreich war es sicher nicht." Die Diskussion über die entsprechenden Äußerungen von Beck sei "ein Schachspiel mit Gerüchten gewesen". Der einzige verbürgte Satz von Beck habe gelautet: "In Hessen wird geheim gewählt."[Leading Hamburg SPD candidate] Naumann said in response to the question whether the SPD-Left Party debate damaged the Social Democrats in Hamburg: "It was surely not helpful." The discussion about the comments in question by Beck were "a chess game with rumours". [According to Naumann,] the only on-record sentence by Beck was: "In Hessen, the elections are secret."

Guess which part was chosen as the section header.

At the end of the article, they refer to a poll of SPD members by Bild , the main rainbow press daily and The Sun equivalent (I won't link to the original source), with the IMO manipulatively chosen question of whether "working together" with the Left Party would be a "broken promise". I say of course it will be, but whether SPD members would support the policy is another question, and the only one quarter who thinks Beck should resign is an indication.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 04:50:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ZDF, 21:01:

CDU 42.6%/55 seats
SPD 33.9%/44 seats
GAL (Greens) 9.6%/13 seats
Left Party 6.6%/9 seats
FDP 4.9%/out

NDR/ARD 20:30:

CDU 42.7%/56 seats
SPD 34.1%/45 seats
GAL (Greens) 9.4%/12 seats
Left Party 6.5%/8 seats
FDP 4.8%/out [hooray, if I am allowed to...]

NDR continuously changed their title photo according to the mood, now they have a victorious von Beust embracing the world:



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 03:39:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some interesting results from exit polling:

41000 CDU voters did not show up.
11000 SPD voters did not show up.
16000 GAL voters did not show up(!)

Main other crossover from CDU is to the FDP: 11000 votes.

Main other crossover from SPD is to the Linke: 9000 votes.

GAL loses 10000 to SPD; 6000 to Linke.

FDP gains additional 5000 total votes from SPD, GAL, Other, but loses 3000 to no-shows rather than gaining any (which cost them their 5% mark).

Linke gain additional 3000 from CDU; 9000 from no-shows; 17,000 from other parties. Thereby, 26000 Linke votes come from outside the 4 party electorate, and 18000 from CDU/SPD/GAL (net difference with FDP is roughly 0).

The fact that 2/3rds of the Linke vote comes from people who did not vote; other parties, and the CDU is a very strong argument in favour of having the Linke as a party in the West, from the POV of SPD and Greens (and yes, also mine).

Meanwhile the SPD, but even more the Greens really have to worry about not being able to mobilise their voters. The Greens, I think, lost even more to no-shows than the CDU when you look at proportions. There must have been something seriously wrong with their ground game, or their campaign in general. Once again, it's all about GOTV.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 04:02:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To put on some narrative:

The SPD failed to get a net plus in votes (even as they got a plus in their percentage of the total vote). The Greens lost across the board. The main problem for the Greens and the SPD, however, is not the Left Party, but rather failing to get enough people to show up.

Lack of participation also hit the CDU big, and cost the FDP their entry into the parliament.

The support for the Left Party, meanwhile, mainly comes from protest voters (who voted 'other' in the past elections) and from people who used to stay at home. When you couple that to a few CDU voters they picked off, their support is overwhelmingly (2/3rds) drawn from outside the left. This means that they strengthen the left much more than merely shifting its centre.

The question remains why many SPD and even more Green voters stayed at home. I don't know to what extent this is due to fear of an evil commie red-green-red alliance.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 04:19:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is the place to insert another bit of info I came across over the past few days.

DDR-idolising Christel Wenger, the communist on a lower place on the Left Party list in Lower Saxony, made it into the regional parliament only due to the unexpected high success.

But this inspired some opponents in another way. As the Left Party jumped in Hamburg polls, on German webboards and blogs, a list spread with the communists on the Hamburg Left Party lists.

The twist is that Hamburg voted in a new election system. People vote for party lists and can specify five candidates, thus over-ruling the party lists...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 05:02:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You say
DDR-idolising Christel Wenger, the communist on a lower place on the Left Party list in Lower Saxony, made it into the regional parliament only due to the unexpected high success.

as if it's a bad thing.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 06:44:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
She made some really fucking stupid comments.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 07:03:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't say it either as bad or good thing.

The implicit issue in what I said is a minor sub-thread of the public debate on Wenger between the Left Party and detractors accusing it of knowingly bringing along foul cargo. I am reporting, not commenting:

Wenger didn't enter the Left Party, only its list under the aggreement to only represent Left Party positions if elected. However, the accusation went further that the Left Party assured her presence in Parliament with that list place, "for a few votes more": as the trade-off was that the communist dwarf party DKP didn't run in the elections. But some from the Left Party countered that she was given a lower place on the list, which wouldn't have gotten her in had the party not beaten opinion polls (getting 7% instead of 5%).

And now I am commenting.

Though I don't completely agree with the interpretation in nanne's link, I wrote about Wenger's comments re idolising the DDR. Though Wenger claims she was tricked and edited by the reporters on the two parts I quoted and which were most discussed, there were other whoppers that are more in the category of whitewashing a past regime rather than advocating real communism or socialism, say stuff on Margot Honecker. She may have specific blinders on as the daughter of parents and being herself someone who was under long state surveillance and persecution in West Germany, but those are blinders nevertheless.

Note that I'm not sure I have any serious problems with the other DKP member turned scandal for the Left Party mentioned in my linked diary, Pit Merz.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2008 at 05:23:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, she does sound as though not particularly ready for prime time.

This being said, I do note (via my father, who is in Germany roughly four months out of each year) that the internal situation viz. "reactionary forces" isn't particularly a good one, that being either black or in particular vietnamese in especially the former DDR can be quite difficult due to antisocial behavior on the part of local militants and the police do relatively little in these cases. I recall on firebombing case in Rostock getting much international cover, on vietnamese workers, and many attacks by skinheads in general, this later not being limited to the former DDR but also elsewhere in the new entrants to the EC.

Further it would appear that many wealthy Germans already have a hard time paying their proper share of taxes without even a properly Socialist tax and fiscal structure in place, so obviously this will need to be taken seriously.

Clearly, her polemics seem to be unauthorized and not particularly well phrased, politically.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Mon Feb 25th, 2008 at 11:02:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Could it be that GAL lost the liberal-Green voters due to the SPD-Linke debate?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 04:34:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could be. Partially the fault of the SPD and the Greens for not changing the narrative. If they had both managed to gain new voters rather than leaving more people at home, they could have had the majority (27,000 voters equals roughly 3.3 percentage points, from my rough estimate looking at the Linke number).

P.S. FDP now at 4.7% at the 23:38 results. They're definitely not getting in.

The 2.6% to the 'other' category is split between DVU, Kusch, and other parties. Highest results for the DVU in 8 out of 17 boroughs that have final results is 1.8%, most under 1%. The far right is out of the game.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 05:53:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't mean to be glib, but...

selbstverständlich hat St. Pauli auch ein unentshieden Spiel.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sun Feb 24th, 2008 at 04:55:56 PM EST
They should have won. Anyway,

Result for St.Pauli:
SPD 41.2%
GAL 21.0%
CDU 15.3%
Linke 15.0%
FDP 3.3%

Result for "HafenCity":
CDU 61.6%
SPD 15.7%
GAL 12.2%
FDP 9.8%
Linke 0.4%

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2008 at 03:06:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Based on the official source [pdf!], down until askod's comrades:

PartyVote %changeSeatschange
Turnout/all63.6%-6.51210
Invalid1.0%-0.3
CDU42.6%-4.656-7
SPD34.1%+3.645+4
GAL [Greens]9.6%-2.712-5
Left Party
(2004: Rainbow)
6.4%
+5.3
8+8
FDP4.8%+2.0--
DVU [far-right]
(2004: NPD)
0.8%
+0.5
Kusch [ex CDU]0.5%+0.5
Greys [seniors]0.3%-0.8
The Party [stunt of a satirical magazine]0.3%+0.3
Pirate Party0.2%+0.2


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2008 at 10:21:43 AM EST

Merkel gives nod to Green partnership

Angela Merkel, Germany's Christian Democratic chancellor, on Monday gave her approval to the creation of the first coalition of the CDU and Greens in a move that could transform the country's party-political landscape.

Meanwhile, in an equally ground-breaking decision, the Social Democratic party, junior partner in Ms Merkel's "grand coalition", said it would no longer oppose all forms of co-operation with the Left party in western German states.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2008 at 04:04:38 PM EST
Rot-Rot-Grün-Debatte: Kritiker gehen vor Beck in die Knie - Naumann beklagt sich über "Lkw aus Mainz" - Politik - SPIEGEL ONLINE - NachrichtenRed-Red-Green debate: critics fall on their knees before [SPD party boss Kurt] Beck - [Hamburg leading candidate Michael] Naumann complains about "truck from Mainz" [capital of Beck's home state Rhineland-Palatine]
Steinbrück, Steinmeier: War da was? Der Proteststurm gegen SPD-Chef Beck hört so plötzlich auf, wie er ausgebrochen war. Sämtliche Spitzengenossen stellen sich jetzt im Linkskurs-Streit hinter ihren Boss. Hamburgs Wahlverlierer Naumann allerdings beklagt sich über einen "Lkw aus Mainz", der alles "platt gemacht" habe.[Federal economy minister Peer] Steinbrück, [federal foreign minister Hans-Walter] Steinmeier - was there anything? The storm of protest against SPD boss Beck ends as abruptly as it started. Now all top comrades line up behind their boss in the fight over the leftward direction. However, Hamburg's election loser Naumann complains about a "truck from Mainz" which "flattened everything".

My interpretation: the so-called "storm of protest" was the media hyperventillating about some cases of veiled criticism, and SPIEGEL still saved some of it into the headline. Amazingly, the SPD did find back to Schröder-time party discipline.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2008 at 05:06:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I love the nuance -- the article quotes the actual line constituting the paradigm shift:

"Sollte es nicht zu einer Koalition (mit FDP und Grünen) kommen, wird die SPD Hessen entscheiden, ob und gegebenenfalls wann sich Andrea Ypsilanti im Landtag zur Wahl stellt."Should a coalition [with FDP and Greens] fail, the Hessen SPD will decide if, and, should the case arise, when Andrea Ypsilanti will stand for election [as PM] in the regional parliament.

The system is: if a PM candidate gets the majority vote in the regional parliament, s/he can form a government. Since the Left Party already announced its support, just standing for election would assure a PM Ypsilanti. And the Hessen SPD was given free hand.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2008 at 05:16:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
While the SPD is far behind the CDU in polls, in the parliament, the CDU+CSU lead over the SPD just reduced to 1.

This is again that curious effect of the so-called overhang mandates, a peculiarity of the German election system, which I wrote about last June when the difference reduced to 2.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2008 at 05:29:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
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