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Another sentence to edit. It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
as if the fall has already It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
changed the wording a bit. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
</devil on shoulder> Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
Go on.
Redstar, this is superb stuff. I'll go and read it a second time now.
hopefully i can get mig to do it... The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
everyone's bleating about an Obama speech today (didn't hear so don't know if its worth the bleating) in US centre-right blogostan, anyhow... The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
Maybe my grandparents would've. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
I sure don't get America.
Well if the dollar keeps falling perhaps a nice European can get it for you. ;-) Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
You need to edit that sentence. It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
You do need to post this.
But other than that - maybe wait a day or two for the quivering Obama-thon to come to its moist sycophantic conclusion.
Then post it.
America still has a lot of interest-free creditors, though their willingness to so remain lessens with each passing Bernanke action
Do post it!
Thanks for checking it over! The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
Sigh. Another day, another "Obama's big speech" while the economy goes to hell . . .
Last summer I chatted with a fellow fellow, a gentleman from Delhi of exceedingly refined caste and entrepreneurial spirit, who inquired after my employment prospects thus far. I gave him a few examples. He nodded thoughtfully and chuckled.
"I too have met more than a few unscrupulous dealers," he admitted. Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
And also, unfortunately, there is no political movement with any power which represents actual living breathing working people and disadvantaged in America anymore. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
I'm afraid hoping for anything worth the powder to blow to hell from Schumer is a lost cause. As soon as this crisis hit, he and Clinton were talking about bailouts for the finance industry and industries connected with it. Without finance, New York is just Ohio with less space and more Puerto Ricans. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
And the dollar is fucked for sure.
But (stag)flation or deflation? I think that's an interesting discussion point.... "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
Worst of both worlds.
Just like Argentina six years ago. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
Of course, it was not the WWII war effort who solved the economical problems, but social programmes which also created infrastructures, prudent laws and (not often mentioned)both the immigration to the US of very qualified people from Central Europe - freedom-loving, creative people - and finally the (temporary) destruction of other advanced industrialised nations.
I hope that McCain does not win the election because several of those gentlemen will have his ear. As for H. Clinton, she's ruthless.
You should definitely post it on dKos. "Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
... for lefties here, forgive me if I ask your indulgence, as a committed socialist, to trust me on this one, but one of the few things the vile Milton Friedman got right... is this: when you print money and do not generate credible wealth, you pay for this via a tax called inflation.
Sonny, some of us lefties already knew that (and other deep profundities) when you were in swaddling clothes and little Milton Friedman was smearing his diatribes in finger paints.
For those of you who wondered what the hell Nader was talking about when he said there was essentially no difference, where it counted, between Democrats and Republicans, it was precisely this.
Nader detested the political pressure Democratic Party hacks put on him in 2000. At that time he was saying that the US would be better off to learn a few things about reality during a crazed right-wing George W Bush administration. Watching the Neocons bankrupt the US was a high price to pay for such public knowledge. Still, if the gravity of the current situation has finally penetrated a few cheetos-stuffed skulls over here, I suppose it was worth waiting for.
Even if Gore would not had changed the overall direction of financial trickery and cheap globalization, the tempo and scale of stressful changes matters a lot when it comes to adaptation of anyone, be it regular folks or, gasp, natural environment.
Far less than the Americans will be, though.
I don't know if this is a fact, but I suspect major European banks have already reserved what they needed to - it's not a liquidity issue for them, so why hide the magnitude?
OTOH, in the US, this isn't necessarily true. I note Lehman Bros started off a rally y'day announcing better than expected earnings, but also tht their operating cash flow was nearly negative 50 billions (thru Nov.). They have 30 billions cash les, another 60 billions equivalent securities they could sell off to stay afloat, so I don't know what the cheering's about - they might be less than a year from going tits up like Bear.
It's not a liquidiy issue in the Eurozone. For USD, it surely is. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
"The Chickens come Home to Roost"--and find the vultures already in residence.
Sincere thanks and admiration, redstar. Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
I may have to quote you on vultures and chickens... The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
First, there is a very strong anger against the US, both for the accumulated Bush foreign policy stuff and the way they are hurting our economy by fucking up their own. There is horror when they understand how the subprime crisis happened, how the financial industry has behaved and how real wages have developed in America.
Still, no one is crying. Indeed, several people wouldn't mind suffering through a recession as long as the Americans suffer worse. Not looking very good for future US-EU relations, even of the removal of Bush will change a lot...
Further, strict regulation, state intervention, socialism and even Marxism is begining to look rather attractive. So does the death penalty for "bank treason". Who said moral hazard was a problem? Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
And that one actually resulted in real effects on the guilty, and on the side of the financial industry it mainly had to do with incompetence and inexperience (no one knew what a credit loss was, ot exaggerate it a bit), not calculated greedy malice and class war.
In the end, the banks were nationalized, the old soc dems (who were responsible to a large degree) were thrown out, the right screwed around a bit and lost lots of money on defending the fixed currency rate, new soc dems were brought in and the minister of finance was so succesful that he ended up being prime minister for pretty much forever.
He even gave us back the milk. Eventually. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Think of it this way: your mortgage rate today might be at 6%. Two years from now (and this is a very plausible situation) it might be 12%. Hell, it might even be more than that for a while, significantly more, ask any Argentine about the past decade. No problem, you say? Well, good for you, you get to sit tight in your house, you don't have to move, you have a secure job, and the value of your house, source of wealth for the vast majority of the American middle class, is of no matter to you. But if you are really worrying about your net worth, you might have to sell your house, you might be near retirement and planning on a move to a condo or smaller home somewhere warmer, things virtually all of us sooner or later think about, this is of concern to you. Because a home's value, like that of a long bond, is simply a function of its yield, expressed in market rates for long term mortgages. In other words, your house is only worth the monthly payment that the sort of person who might be interested in buying it can afford. After all, markets are a signal of value, even in our Socialist worker's paradise where Cheney gets an unheated cell in the Wyoming re-education camp gulag, even if we must vigorously seek to minimize and manage the deleterious effects of their fluctuations.
Think of it this way: your mortgage rate today might be at 6%. Two years from now (and this is a very plausible situation) it might be 12%. Hell, it might even be more than that for a while, significantly more, ask any Argentine about the past decade.
No problem, you say? Well, good for you, you get to sit tight in your house, you don't have to move, you have a secure job, and the value of your house, source of wealth for the vast majority of the American middle class, is of no matter to you.
But if you are really worrying about your net worth, you might have to sell your house, you might be near retirement and planning on a move to a condo or smaller home somewhere warmer, things virtually all of us sooner or later think about, this is of concern to you. Because a home's value, like that of a long bond, is simply a function of its yield, expressed in market rates for long term mortgages. In other words, your house is only worth the monthly payment that the sort of person who might be interested in buying it can afford. After all, markets are a signal of value, even in our Socialist worker's paradise where Cheney gets an unheated cell in the Wyoming re-education camp gulag, even if we must vigorously seek to minimize and manage the deleterious effects of their fluctuations.
However, if you're worried about loan-to-value of your house, that is, if you're leveraged... It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
It seems to me that if the European market is going to be highly risk-averse, then it might be worth it for European bankers to figure out how to simultaneously engage in the globalism thing and at the same time protect against wild swings in the market. Doesn't look to me like you've done that, particularly if your market responds in a more negative fashion to our problems than does our market...
It's a groqing phenomenon.
Not everyone can get into apartments for now and then get "creative financing" the next time around. And a lot of them have kids; educational development issues? Certainly/
Understood that the more comfortable layers of American society are immune to (and therefore clueless about) the growing incidence of homelessness among the working poor. Your point speaks well to that immunity.
But is limited only to that comfortable layer. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
Unemployment is not (yet) a big problem here. It's pretty easy to get a job even if you have low skills, and apartment rents are quite low. There is certainly a threshold of employability that you must meet, but assuming reasonable health, one can cover the rent. A two-bedroom apartment goes for about $600 a month. If you're making ten bucks an hour as a laborer, you can cover it...
In the U.S. economy, being employed is key. That's how you get your insurance, your credit cards, your car and house loan, etc. Unemployment is a personal financial disaster, and a big jump in the unemployment rate is about the only thing that's going to move us towards 1930s-style quasi-socialism...
Nope, you're engaging in typical US bourgeois denial of what's going on, the sort of ideological cluelessness which is a part of the problem. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
http://www.networkeurope.org/feature/under-priveleged-roma-children-of-south-east-europe
I'm not going to argue with you about my personal viewpoint, but I don't think I fall completely into the bourgeois denialist category...
For example, there are squatters in Paris, which is something that essentially doesn't exist in the U.S.
In any case, Paris actually has its fair share of people sleeping under bridges in tents. Many of the tents were provided by humanitarian NGOs. Geezer in Paris may have written about that in his diaries or comments. It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
However, I was in Panama not too long ago, where land tenure issues are a big problem, and the lack of landlord rights has a bunch of really obvious and bad side effects of its own. Maybe the thing to do is have strong protection of land ownership, and then approach the problem of homelessness in some other way.
What there do not tend to be are homeless families, particularly, homeless single women and their children, like onee sees in America. There were, before this financial crisis began last summer, over a million homeless women and children in America. This is paternalism combined with calvinism and it is a particularly toxic stew for women and children, something you just don't see anywhere else in the industrialized "west".
If you can show me homeless people like that anywhere in the industrialized world outside of America, please I'd like to see the evidence.
And excuse me, but I lived near a Roma camp for some time in France, and it was anything but what you describe. I am aware of terrible conditions for Roma, especially in new entrants (ie developing entrants) to the EU and also in Greece especially due to the olympics and construction there. A tent village in Sacramento, housing families, is not the same. Not by a long shot. The comparable thing I've seen in my life? Temporary refugee camps along the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
The core difference is the extent to which the countries see those problems as a failure of government and the country as opposed to a personal failure of the people involved: often the personal failure is put on them by calling them gypsies, or depending on their unfortunate ethnic origins. It the US it just seems to be mainstream thought that anyone who finds themselves in that position is to blame for it.
Maybe that's a bit of an overstatement, because there is lots of sympathy for people who are sick or unemployable or mentally ill. What there isn't is wide support for governmental intervention.
Homelessness in the EU, particularly the Eurozone, is largely limited to the mentally ill, the chemically dependent, and new, unauthorized migrant workers.
That's decidedly not the face of homeless in the US, as anyone who's worked at a Dorothy Day center can tell you in a heartbeat. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
I understand that they can end up in a pretty hellish sequence of (state-funded) bed-and-breakfast accommodation and temporary hostels since there is inadequate provision for proper support and accommodation.
State funding? Bed and breakfasts?
That's gotta be Ireland, cuz that ain't how it works in America. Shelters go out hat in hand and rely largely on charity, just like in the 19th century for most of Europe. That's actually one of my sisters' job, going out with the hat.
OTOH, refugees in France do tend to be lodged in hotels, often for long periods of time. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
I must have gotten my Irish up overmuch. Sore subject for me, hits very close to home.
Sorry. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
I was polite the first time, but when the interlocutor is persistent in pressing the mistaken and insouciantly inconsiderate view of "its all the same everywhere" which is, let's be honest about it, a variant on the theme of "sucks to be them," my patience wears pretty thin. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
Them: It is the same everywhere. The problem can't be solved. Me: No, we don't have homeless in Sweden, beyond the few drunks or drug addicts. Them: Ahh! But you have such high taxes!! Me: Yeah. Welfare isn't free, you know. But the problem is solvable. Saying it isn't because it requires high taxes pretty much just makes you a greedy bastard. Them: No, no, no. We believe private charity can do the job better. I give to private charity! I'm not a heartless, greedy bastard. Me: Really, yes you are. Clearly the problem requires funding beyond your token private charity provisions. Or it wouldn't exist anymore. As we have a concrete example of it being done better by government elsewhere, your belief in private charity is pretty much demonstrated false. Them: Yeah, but your taxes. They are so high...
The latest thing is that the EU blocked tax cuts for service workers (thank Brussels, that was a really stupid tax cut) so instead the government will cut employment tax (hidden income tax) from 21 % to 15 % for people under 26. Everyone else pay something like 30 % employment tax (and on top of that the ordinary taxes of 30-50 %).
So yes, it's a good day to be under 26 in Sweden. :) Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
In the U.S. economy, being employed is key. That's how you get your insurance, your credit cards, your car and house loan, etc.
But why should corporations do pensions, healt care, insurance and another ten thousand things? In neoliberal utopia(tm) those things should be financed by the individual. In a more reasonable world, most of those things are done by the state and financed via taxes.
The current US system is just stupid, putting strain on the competitivity of firms while utterly ignoring the needs of the unemployed. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
How was that forgotten? It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
I think the bottom line is that America has not yet had as big of a disaster as Europe had in the mid-20th century.
If you're making ten bucks an hour as a laborer, you can cover it... In the U.S. economy, being employed is key. That's how you get your insurance, your credit cards, your car and house loan, etc.
And if you're not making ten bucks an hour? If you're not getting benefits?
See What The Jobful Get for a non-mythical look at US employment.
Any explanation, in your formulation, for the relatively new (well, since the 1930's anyhow) phenomenon of the tent city?
"Survivor: Outer Los Angeles," coming this fall to CBS. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
In technical terms, redstar's saying that a house is (typically) a 30-year 100%-coupon bond. Interestingly, the interest-rate sensitivity of the price of a bond is called its duration and a 30-year bond has... well... a long duration and therefore a large interest rate sensitivity. For his chosen example of a 30-year mortgage at 6% the duration is something like 21 years.
So, if your interest rate goes up by 0.1% per year, you multiply that by 21 years and you get 2.1% as an estimate of the drop in the value of the house. If you have an ARM not only the value of your house goes down, but your interest payments also go up. Not nice. But you only care about small movements like this if you're speculating in real state. IMHO a first home is not an investment, it's a home, but a mortgage does have this kind of risk which I don't think is quantified in just this way by mortgage advisorssalesmen. It might be obvious that the term of the mortgage is roughly equal to the interest rate sensitivity of the resale value, but ordinary mortgagees are not generally aware or made aware of this fact. [Fortunately for mortgagees, duration decreases as interest rates rise, so by the time you've moved from 6% to 12% you're no longer talking about 21 years' duration but something like 9 years - again, duration is only directly applicable to small movements]
It is interesting that for a 30-year mortgage going from 6% to 12% is a 40% drop in price to 3 significant figures. Anyway, regardless of how accurate it is, redstar uses the 40% haircut to great effect. It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
But the critical difference, perhaps, is that in the U.S. it's widely recognized that the real estate market is very volatile. Everybody knows this, and it's just factored into the personal financial risk calculation that everybody makes.
Anglo-American culture of "rugged individualism" is to blame, along with the selfish culture and punishment for economic failure that is a result of laissez faire capitalist, Social Darwinism is to blame...
The real root is the American culture of "rugged individualism" and the notion of "pull yourself up by your bootstraps." Americans are duped into embracing these notions through the hearkening back to the early 1900's, when immigrants really could make something of their lives in America. Today, the "immigrants' myth" is now being used to displace American workers. Before this happened, the American worker had to be demonized as "lazy, fat and demanding of high salaries."
Personal failure, especially economic failure, such as the inability to get decent employment, is brutally punished in American culture. There is no social safety net to catch Americans that economically fail - and this is purposefully crafted this way.
The lack of responsible concern on the part of the "richest nation of Earth" should be viewed by the international community as irresponsible governance. Even poor nations would help their own people if they had resources or at least allow help to enter their nations. Find out what happened to the Hurricane Katrina aid sent from Europe to America, especially food aid.
It should be regarded as irresponsible governance, especially in the "richest nation on Earth" to allow your own people to sleep in the streets and suffer just for the inhuman Anglo-American, lassez faire notions of "rugged individualism" and cruel punishment for failure.
The only hope is that America CRASH and that Americans wake up to the self-destructive and dehumanizing nature of their social-economic system. It is hoped that, as far fetched as it is, America adapt the social market principles and a kinder and gentle system for human beings to live under.
I suppose it depends upon your horizon, but for those who haven't experienced similar dislocations this one seems to be earth shattering. It isn't.
This will pass in a couple of years, just as the dot com bubble did. At the end of the crisis there will be a bit more foreign ownership of US assets, there will be a few ex-millionaires and the concentration of ownership by large firms will have increased.
The super wealthy who set much of economic and social policy will still be super wealthy. The politicians who they buy will still be bought. In the US a big win for the Dems may lead to a new cycle of consumer protection and some improvements in the safety net. That's about it.
The US will still depend upon militarism to (attempt) to rule the world. The EU will continue to get a free ride from this militarism and continue to dodge its responsibilities when it comes to dealing with failed states. China and India will continue to grow, but internal strife will increase and the path will be less smooth than they now believe.
The climate change (both the real one and the metaphorical one), will occur towards the middle of century. How this will play out is beyond by predictive abilities, but unless there are bold steps taken now, it won't be pretty.
Right now some sharp investors are buying up oversold assets and will be seen as wise and foresighted in 2010.
As I always say, "Don't Panic". Policies not Politics ---- Daily Landscape
But the fact of the matter is, when these financial crises to which you allude occurred, the US was a creditor nation with an industrial base to export its way out of the mess. Now, the US is a heavily indebted nation with an enfeebled industrial base, specialized in the sorts of services which cannot easily be exported.
Nope, this might not be the big one, and there certainly are levers to pull the US out of this. Namely, re-institute a progressive federal income tax like before JFK, increase interest rates like Volcker did, or both.
Either way, there are hard times ahead, and unlike all other significant downturns since the '30's, the safety net has also been gutted.
I admire your optimism though. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
All that hardware, and the US has made the EU less safe. Nobody's asking the US for anything around these parts, as far as I can see, maybe you can try that argument out on the Canadians. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
So true, a free ride to - hell.
and continue to dodge its responsibilities when it comes to dealing with failed states
As in the failed state of Irak, I suppose. What exactly are Europe's or the US - or anyone's for that matter - duties towards failed states ?
The migration from North Africa which is causing consternation in places like Spain might also be better handled if meaningful aid was given to the places the migrants are coming from.
Isolationism has a tendency not to work as desired over the long run. A lesson both Europe and America fail to learn. Policies not Politics ---- Daily Landscape
afrol News - Migration produces EU deal for Mali; Bissau next
The European Union (EU) has granted substantial extra aid to Mali to assure a faster social development of the country and thus halting its large illegal migration outflow. Mali has turned into the largest source of irregular migrant to Spain and Europe, mostly due to rampant poverty and lack of vision for the country's large youthful population. Meanwhile, Guinea-Bissau seems set to be the next to achieve a lucrative EU deal as migrants have started departing from that country. ... Spanish diplomats, who have travelled frenetically over most of West Africa during the last year, have been able to secure EU assistance in signing migration control and development aid agreements with the main sources of irregular migrants. Especially Morocco, Mauritania and Senegal - the main countries of departure - have already signed agreements worth hundreds of millions of euros, in addition to receiving logistic aid in controlling borders. ... Spanish and EU authorities have so far been rather successful in closing the main migration routes into Europe. Economic and diplomatic concessions to Morocco assured Rabat's harsh crack-down on Africans trying to use the country as a base to migrate to Spain. Libya and Tunisia are equally tough on those heading for Italy.
...
Spanish diplomats, who have travelled frenetically over most of West Africa during the last year, have been able to secure EU assistance in signing migration control and development aid agreements with the main sources of irregular migrants. Especially Morocco, Mauritania and Senegal - the main countries of departure - have already signed agreements worth hundreds of millions of euros, in addition to receiving logistic aid in controlling borders.
Spanish and EU authorities have so far been rather successful in closing the main migration routes into Europe. Economic and diplomatic concessions to Morocco assured Rabat's harsh crack-down on Africans trying to use the country as a base to migrate to Spain. Libya and Tunisia are equally tough on those heading for Italy.
And, in Greece that I know of, the majority of illegals nowadays crossing the Aegean are from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. In other words the recent upsurge in incoming illegal immigrants is in no small part due to the very energetic policies of the US in various parts of the world. The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
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