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is what we are seeing today just a momentary glitch, or the leading edge of a predictable resource crash?

a glitch -- we'll retool and continue (albeit with some transitional pain) our industrial consumer lifestyle   3 votes - 27 %
leading edge of a major world-historical civilisational collapse, no way back from here   8 votes - 72 %
 
11 Total Votes
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Lifted in its entirety from a comment (!) by Stan on a Feral Scholar thread discussing Dmitry Orlov's recent address to the Long Now Society.

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2009 at 03:02:48 PM EST
Thanks for posting this.  It reads almost like a thriller/novel in the making.  I think there are a few twists in the plot to come!

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2009 at 04:04:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for posting this.  It reads almost like a thriller/novel in the making.  I think there are a few twists in the plot to come!

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2009 at 04:05:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
extraordinary...my fingernails are no more!

john le carre taken all the way out there.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2009 at 05:20:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I half expected Arkady Renko to make an appearance in search of a murderer....

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2009 at 06:02:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... where the union of the two choices is not the Universal set.

My answers to the poll options separately are:

(1) No.

(2) Maybe, maybe not.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2009 at 09:39:45 PM EST
Both Orlov's presentation to the Long Now Society on Valentine's Day, 2009 and the long comment from Mark Jones are must reads.  The quote from Mark Jones may well come from Sheila Newman, (Ed.) The Final Energy Crisis, Second Edition, Pluto, UK 2008.  The RIP on the quote would indicate he is deceased.  There seems to have been a lot of controversy about his predictions around 2004 and many appear to have wanted him shouted down.  Anyone know more?
 

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 22nd, 2009 at 11:31:09 PM EST
So, Soviet Union broke up because of running out of oil... but still there was enough oil left for the coming generation of oligarchs. Why were the Soviets so pressed to develop the Arctic fields, and how much capital they real needed for that?

These analyzes of those "economic" pressures for the Soviet collapse are probably still too simplistic perhaps. The consensus seems too easy.

by das monde on Mon Feb 23rd, 2009 at 05:13:35 AM EST
Soviet oil was in decline in 1990 (the peak was in 1986, so that was already visible), but what happened next was not peak-related: it was simply that (i) investment stopped, and (ii- eisting facilities were essentially looted, equipement that boke down was not replaced or was cannibalised for other uses. The oil production collapsed by 50% - and that made the boom after that all the easier, given that it as mostly about restarting abandoned, but known facilities and fields. And it was not done in an efficient way, to prolong production, but in the ways that would boost production - and revenues - as quickly as possible.

The other thing that is ignored is that oil is not gas, and Russian gas did not peak in 1990, and has not peaked now - and Gazprom never relinquished control - contrary to oil, the gas business was never broken into pieces, and it could be said thankfuly, given that gas i all about the pipeline infratructure. In any case, Yamal is Gazprom territory, and remains so today.

I'd note that the argument about $100 billion investments requiring the West is, once again, silly: Gazprom is 5 times bigger than the biggest Western oil&gas major, and has been able over the past 80 years to developa gas industry that has no equivalent anywhere in the world. It developed Urengoy and Yamburg a couple decades ago and, while Yamal is futher North (by a few hundred kilometers) and thus even harder technically speaking, it is hard to believe that any Western company would be better equipped to develop the reserves there than Gazprom. That semi-colonialist attitude comes out of Mark Jones' story and is still very common today.

That said, his story seems authentic - it certainly fits in the context of that time; it certainly does not mean that his analyses are fully correct.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Feb 23rd, 2009 at 03:51:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That semi-colonialist attitude comes out of Mark Jones' story and is still very common today.
His attitude was consistent with his own economic agenda, not unsurprisingly, as were the attitudes of the officials at GlavTyumengeologiya (GTG,) who were trying to find a way to make money off of the impending collapse of the USSR.  For them, if Gazprom is fully capable of developing the Yamal field, there is no need for them, except as, they fear, petroleum geologists for hire as needed by Gazprom.  Bye bye exulted status, special resorts, etc.

But peak Soviet oil was only one of the factors cited by Mark Jones as pointing towards Soviet collapse.   Another was the relative energy inefficiency of the Soviet oil industry, which both he and the officials at GTG saw as critical factors.  I do recall lots of chatter about the devastating ecological impact of the Soviet oil industry and nuclear industry, but am in no position to evaluate the merits of these claims.  What about that and about Mark Jones's background?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Feb 23rd, 2009 at 04:34:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... oil production was on the back of the drop in oil prices in the mid-80's as the Saudis turned on the tap.

And, of course, "enough to make oligarchs fabulously wealthy", and "enough to maintain an expensive military machine and expensive buffer-state empire" can quite easily be quite different amounts of "enough".

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Feb 23rd, 2009 at 08:21:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One difference between the Soviet collapse and this crisis is that the Soviet Union did not collapse from economic reasons directly. The often-mentioned industrial, demographic problems and "enormous" costs of maintaining the Soviet Empire make a nice story, but those factors were never let to play out "naturally". In the real time, hardly anyone was loudly considering the same factors as fatal to the Soviet Union. Compare that with a fairly large crowd of fellow Cassandra's pointing to Ponzite unsustainability of the latest financial boom.

A direct course of the Soviet collapse was Gorbachov's perestroika - the medicine of the (then perhaps indeed) perceived ills of the Soviet system. The disintegration went forward like a train - "no one" could have planned it faster. The system hardly showed any wish of survival; even the August coup was the lousiest possible. Communist insiders profited the most, as if there was nothing unimaginable to them. Say what you will, to me the Soviet collapse looks increasingly like a willful break-up of their social system. (And you know, I have good reasons not to cheer anything Soviet.)

Was the Soviet system workable, I think? It was not the best society network disintegrated by free-market reforms. But if the problems were clear, Soviet bureaucrats gave up very easily.

by das monde on Mon Feb 23rd, 2009 at 10:42:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the case of Poland you did have a society on the verge of collapse. There had been a deep recession starting in 1978. Until then decade had seen massive hard currency loans supporting rapidly rising living standards and white elephant projects. Eventually the credit dried up, the Party sought to stabilize things buy large price hikes combined with frozen salaries and presto - massive labour unrest, which in the context of an authoritarian society automatically meant political unrest. The result was even more economic disruption culminating in a crackdown. The rest of the eighties saw very poor living standards (you really couldn't get anything in the stores on any sort of regular basis except for dairy products, bread, eggs, and root vegetables - not meat, not shoes, not toilet paper, not soap, not anything). The economy was kept from full collapse by the Soviets reacting to 1980-81 with signfificant subsidies starting in 1982 and increased private transfers from the West coupled with an increase in the hard currency store system (with change given in scrip).

In 1988 even this wasn't working as a decade of zero capital investment caught up with things. The Party asked the elder brothers for a sharp increase in subsidies and were turned down since the Soviets had financial issues of their own. That meant that living standards had to drop again. Given that the Party had zero popular legitimacy at that point, this left two choices. Either get the legitimacy from the opposition (unlike elsewhere in the Bloc you had a large well organized mass opposition movement operating underground - the legacy of 1980-81) or to resort to large scale bloodshed (and the unrest would have made the economic crisis even worse).

Moscow did not want its new and improved image in the West getting destroyed, so in late 1988 it greenlighted formal high level negotiations on a power sharing agreement that led to the legalization of trade unions, an opposition press, and most importantly semi-free elections in June 1989. One third of the decisive lower house was up for grabs, and all of a new, weaker upper chamber. The expectation was that you'd get a national unity government with Solidarity as junior partners.

Except it turned out that the Party was even more unpopular than anyone realized, even the Solidarity leadership itself, and the Party and its allied 'independent' candidates lost all except one of the seats that were open. To make matters worse, the gimmick of allowing several Party candidates to contest the closed seats turned out to have real consequences as voters systematically crossed whichever candidate was higher up in the Party hierarchy, meaning that the Party leadership was mostly unrepresented in the suddenly important parliament. Solidarity now had veto power over the choice of President (elected by the combined chambers and quite powerful) and used that to force a Solidarity led government with only the 'power ministries' in Party hands, plus an agreement that the next elections would be fully free. By the end of the summer the Party apparatus was disintegrating and the secret police was burning mountains of documents in anticipation of dissolution. The regime was dead and the only way it could have been revived was through a Soviet invasion with no guarantees about what the Polish Army would do.

Hmmh, somewhat of a long comment, sorry about that.

by MarekNYC on Mon Feb 23rd, 2009 at 11:57:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Polish shops then still looked better than, say, in the Baltic republics.

The Polish communists were that unpopular for a reason. On the other hand, they returned soon to power for a reason as well.

How much were the Polish people agitated by the price hikes and increased poverty due to the infamous shock therapy?  

by das monde on Tue Feb 24th, 2009 at 02:01:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Polish communists were that unpopular for a reason. On the other hand, they returned soon to power for a reason as well.

How much were the Polish people agitated by the price hikes and increased poverty due to the infamous shock therapy

They were very agitated, but the communists returned largely because of the rapid disintegration of the opposition into multiple strands, a result partly due to different ideologies having been papered over out of combined hatred for the regime, and partly personal cliques and rivalries. First the 'wojna na gorze' between Walesa (backed by the twins, the right in general, and the bulk of the working class anti-communist opposition activists) and Mazowiecki (backed by the the bulk of the organized intellectual opposition that had emerged in the seventies as well as some of those working class activists that had worked with them pre-Solidarity) in 1990, then the splintering of the pro-Walesa groups over the first half of 1992.

The post-communists won the election with twenty percent of the vote, better than the twelve percent they'd gotten in 1991, but not exactly a resounding popular endorsement. The post Solidarity parties got a good fifty percent, but the right wing ones were mostly shut out of parliament because they were so splintered they didn't make it past the threshold.

by MarekNYC on Tue Feb 24th, 2009 at 02:25:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Soviet state was centrally controlled and Gorbachev had enormous power as General Secretary of the CPSU.  I recall an interview with Gorby where he described a talk he had had with Shevardnadze once in Yalta.  They were both extremely frustrated by the constraints of their system, paradoxically.  They expressed that frustration as "We cannot go on living like this."  

Gorbachev's reforms aroused fierce opposition amongst many in the nomenclatura who rightly feared that these reforms would be their own undoing.  The Soviet system never considered that the whole system could be taken down by a determined General Secretary.  Gorbachev used events to put allies into key positions.  My sense has  been that, while he wanted to steer a more moderate course, in the face of resistance from hard-liners, Gorbachev essentially ended up using the political power he had as General Secretary to bulldog the existing system  by pushing through a new Constitution, holding elections, breaking the political monopoly of the Communist Party, breaking up state enterprises into smaller private enterprises and shedding the buffer states.  

I suspect that he thought he could more successfully influence the future direction of the Russian state and society and its relations with the former buffer states than in fact proved possible.  Less drastic reform efforts may well have failed and left the old system largely intact.  I consider Gorbachev to be a great historical figure.  We need a similar determined reformer in the USA.  May we be so fortunate as to have one.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 24th, 2009 at 12:05:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One may wonder, how much did Gorbachev know of what he is doing. Determination requires some vision of what follows. How did Gorbachev know not-so-totalitarian alternatives, and new economic relations? Did he consider a break-up of the Soviet Union, or imagine himself in a pizza commercial?

I hadn't noticed much of the fierce nomenclature opposition to him from the contemporary media or behavior of officials. It seemed that Gorby had control right from the start; the media promoted him quite innovatively (by the Soviet standards). He did change a lot of top party officials... stirring some "unheard" national tensions, in particular... if that goes for a democratic change. The election of Gorbachev himself is said to be controversial.

Seeing how much bullshit posting is there in today's politics, I am more ready to consider the possibility that some of the glorious historic events (like the end of the Cold War) have elements of Potiomkin village in them. Gorbachev did everything right for break-up of the Soviet model (for better and worse). If he left a vacuum, there was once wild force ready to fill it in.

by das monde on Tue Feb 24th, 2009 at 02:23:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How did Gorbachev know not-so-totalitarian alternatives, and new economic relations?
He apparently knew of them primarily through the prism of the Soviet intelligence system and from the viewpoint of one who grew up in the Soviet Union.  He did not have the interior perspective of one who is or has been in a leadership position in one of the western societies.  He knew the problems of Soviet society up close and personally but knew the west from afar.  That was inherent in his situation.

I agree that the demise of the Soviet Union, when and how it died, was largely the result of Gorbachev's actions.  I do not think it turned out anything as well as he would have liked.  He certainly put his own position and the future of his family in play and is probably fortunate to have emerged as well as he did.  I give him credit for having the courage to push his society in the direction of greater openness and of detente with the USA in the face of great uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Reagan was posturing for public approval with his "evil empire" rhetoric and doubling the national debt of the USA with military spending.  I think Gorbachev saw that neither side could win the Cold War militarily, while the Republicans in the USA claimed that this is exactly what they had done.  Point Gorbachev.  Absent a credible geo-political rival, US triumphalism under "W" inflated to gigantic proportions and then proceeded to pop, like a giant bubble gum balloon, all over our face and society, unfortunately smothering the world economy in the process.

Gorbachev could have elected to "stay the course" and try to keep a lid on change in Soviet society.  Hard to know how that would have worked out.  He could have taken a course more like that of China, but I think that is what he had in mind when overtaken by events.  The Chinese undoubtedly found the Soviet example instructive.  I think what Gorbachev needed was better domestic rivals and a way to slow down the process.  A sober Yeltsin might have helped.  The USA was fortunate at its founding to have a number of first rate players and the luxury of time in which to hash out a 2.0 version of our government.

I watched these events from afar and through English language coverage.  I do not know your reasons not to cheer anything Soviet, but you appear to have had a closer perspective.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 24th, 2009 at 07:39:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
das monde:
How did Gorbachev know not-so-totalitarian alternatives, and new economic relations?

I've read somewhere (tm) that he envisioned a transformation into a Scandinavian welfare state.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Feb 26th, 2009 at 06:49:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I read the same thing ... somewhere.  

"Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms." -Dostoevsky
by poemless on Thu Feb 26th, 2009 at 06:52:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Have you given your opinion of Dmitri Orlov's closing the collapse gap?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 24th, 2009 at 08:45:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I gave a couple of opinions on Orlov's blog (scroll down, towards the end)
by das monde on Tue Feb 24th, 2009 at 09:36:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Every time someone mentions Dmitri Orlov's closing the collapse gap an angel gets its wings.

"Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms." -Dostoevsky
by poemless on Thu Feb 26th, 2009 at 06:53:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
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