Who wrote the last scenario?

It's compelling, but (a) I think Köhler calling for new elections is much more likely, it is his right to do so if he thinks a minority government would be unstable (which I think it would be), (b) I'm not sure the SPD could go into elections with Schröder again, and they have the problem of choosing a charismatic leader, (c) the CDU does have a more charismatic leader, it has Koch; their only problem is to let him gain far-right voters without losing too many centrist voters.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

I wonder if the SPD has outsmarted itself. The Labor, Health and Finance Ministries are those areas in which the most contentious issues will lie - and their ministers will personally bear the brunt of discontent.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

Right now, I'm not a happy camper. I think the SPD is getting a raw deal. Yes, they're going to have more ministers than the CDU/CSU - but who cares? You have to think at least two steps ahead - the critical question is, how are you going to be positioned once the grand coalition falls apart? And fall apart it must, whether it's in a year or two or not until it has lived out a full four year term (unlikely in this case, but certainly not impossible).  

The critical thing to do is to build up a strong SPD figure who is perceived as Merkel's equal and will become her challenger once the deal collapses. There is only one seat at the cabinet table suited to building up the challenger - the office of the foreign secretary. Traditionally, whoever heads the foreign office is also the vice-chancellor. But it's the foreign secretary that people are paying attention to - not the vice-chancellor. If you ask a random sample of Germans on the street who is foreign secretary right now, nine out of ten will tell it's Joschka Fischer. Ask about the vice-chancellor and five out of ten will take a pass. It's a fascinating question why Germans pay so much attention to the foreign office - but fact of the matter is, they do.

So. I had hoped (and have expressed that here) that Schroeder would stay on as foreign secretary under Merkel. He would have been in an awesome position of power - constantly upstaging and outshining Merkel. Merkel would have been blamed for every little thing that's unpopular about the cabinet's policy. Schroeder would have gotten the lion share of the credit for anything popular. And when the coalition collapses, the conservatives would be weakened and the Social Democrats strengthened.

This isn't going to happen now, b/c Schroeder isn't willing to serve under Merkel. Fine, I can understand that. So, looking down the line, who else could take on the role of defacto SPD leader in the government? At this stage of the game, the only one who has the popularity and charisma for this position is Franz Muentefering. And Muentefering wants to (and will) become vice-chancellor - but not foreign secretary. And that's a disaster, in my view. I have to assume Muentefering doesn't feel up to the job. Instead, the most likely candidates for the foreign office are Peter Struck (currently secretary of defense; popular but not charismatic, and questions about his health have been mounting since he suffered a stroke last year); Frank Steinmeier (Schroeder's cabinet secretary and long-term top adviser - publically tho he's completely unknown); and Otto Schily (secretary of the interior; popular but at age 73 on the final leg of his political career). None of these are likely future contenders for the chancellorship. That role will still fall to Muentefering - but he isn't going to be nearly as strong as he would have become in the role of foreign secretary. Worse than that - he's likely going to take the job of labor secretary. And seeing how the reform of the labor market - which Merkel is going to continue mostly unchanged - holds nothing but a world of pain for millions of traditional SPD voters, it's hard to see how Muentefering and the SPD at large could use this position to strengthen their hand.

So, I'm not happy. At this point in time, it looks to me like the SPD is about to squander its chances of forming a new government past Merkel - right now it looks to me as though they're headed for the oppositions benches.

Now, quickly about some of the things mentioned in the article Whataboutbob is quoting from. Oh my, the SPD is going to hold on to the office of the treasury. Well whoop-dee-doo! Actually, no surprise there - that office is toxic as heck at the moment. It's the secretary of the treasury (finance secretary, as we put it) who's publically blamed for the government's austerity policy. That means a lot of pain and frustration is going to be laid at your doorstep. And you can't win. Because the government has to continue paying off the debt for the reunification costs, you can scrimp and save all you want, you still face budget shortfalls year after year and you'll still be violating the Maastricht currency stability benchmarks of the EU year after year. So, absolutely no wonder that the CDU/CSU didn't want that office.

As for the prospect of new elections. First off, it ain't gonna happen. Merkel will be elected unless the great majority of SPD MPs vote against her. But resistance against the deal has been fading fast among the SPD caucus over the last few days. And the reason the critics are now falling back in line is that they realize they're in a no position to win a new election. People aren't exactly enchanted with Merkel, but at this point they view her as the legitimate chancellor, and they're ready to move on. If the deal falls apart because the SPD MPs rebell against Merkel, the SPD will get punished at the polls. As for the prospect of a minority government, get it out of your system already -  can't work under present circumstances. There's no way in heck Schroeder or Muentefering would accept the support of the Linke at this point. Such a deal would cause a massive lapse of public trust in the new government.

So, the SPD has only one way to go - with Merkel and, unfortunately, via Merkel probably into the opposition.

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)