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Germany Update ('Reforms' & Clairvoyance)

by DoDo Sun Oct 30th, 2005 at 05:39:06 AM EST

Promoted back from front page ~ whataboutbob

Ten days ago, I reported that ministers for Germany's new "Grand Coalition" government (= Social Democrats + Christian Democrat/Socialist parties) were finally chosen.

However, that was only the prerequisite to start the actual coalition talks: talks on what policies the new government is supposed to implement. Below some the parties already agreed on (with surprises, at least to me), and another news that makes me feel a good fortune teller (hah!):


There is agreement to drop one of Germany's silliest yet longest-lasting laws, the one granting the so-called Eigenheimzulage (private home bonus). This law was meant as a subsidy to 'help' people purchase their first private home, but any 'help' was compensated by the market, with estate developers raising prices in response to higher demand. That is: this subsidy only really helped sellers, not buyers of homes.

Let's do 'reforms': there is 'compromise' both on the issue of easing protection against firing (ah the neoliberal consensus), and about raising the VAT by an as yet undecided amount (this was a CDU demand fiercely opposed by the SPD and some parts of even the CSU during the campaign).

Also agreed is something hitting close to one of my hobby horses: to reduce retirement fund budget deficits, they plan to raise retirement age, and measures to combat the trend to early retirement1.

The budget will be extended in one field: transport infrastructure. (I fear most of it will go for roads or silly prestige objects like the maglev in Munich.)

The CDU, for the time being, gave up any plans to curb regenerative energy supports (feed-in tariffs, solar power and research subsidies, energy tax) - following a to me surprisingly strong defense from the SPD. (On the other hand, the CDU province PMs will probably continue to raise stumbling blocks, like: new zoning laws.) There is still no agreement on whether to extend the life of nuclear plants (the CDU already gave up on building new ones; note: during the campaign, energy bosses themselves contradicted Merkel on extended-life power plant electricity being cheaper).

Finally: in the minister roundup, I noted that while the SPD ministers include many top dogs, a bright new star from Eastern Germany is missing: Matthias Platzeck (good to note the name), popular PM of Brandenburg state. I speculated that maybe he is:

'sheltered' for a later higher role (maybe even the next chancellor candidate?)

And lo', today I read he is candidate for vice party leadership at the next SPD congress! Expect to hear more of him, especially when the Grand Coalition comes to a premature end.

  1. Since early retirement is a method to 'rationalise' without firing people, the planned measures alone will only shift deficits from retirement funds to unemployment funds - and this is my hobby-horse: that the supposed "demographic problem" is a giant misunderstanding, the age structure doesn't lead to budget deficits, problems lie elsewhere.

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Disclaimer: my estimate that Platzeck has a future shall not be read as recommendation. I'm unsure whether he is worth the hype - he only gained popularity for (like Schröder a few years later) his media presence during the catastrophic flood on the Oder river at the Polish border (when he was only provincial environment minister), and is said to be lazy at job.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Oct 27th, 2005 at 12:58:44 PM EST
HeY! You are a Euro Trib pundit!!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Oct 27th, 2005 at 03:22:40 PM EST
Heh :-)

BTW, sorry to everyone (you, and recommenders Colman and corncam), but the half-finished Monday Train Blogging for next week got published only by accident! I'll put it back in the public domain in due time.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Oct 27th, 2005 at 04:06:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
C'mon, don't be shy!

Tom "Airmiles""FlatEarther""Give War A Chance" Friedman has those sarcastic nicknames, what shall be mine?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Oct 27th, 2005 at 04:09:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do "Traaaaain Time, Baby" Do

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Oct 27th, 2005 at 04:28:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another point on which both parts seem to have agreed: Retirement age will be raised to 67. The new retirement age will be introduced in 2011 and will concern the whole working force by 2035.

2035 - sounds like science fiction to me. Negotiation strategy seems to be: Far-away problems first, let's talk about the ugly imminent measures later.

Question to my fellow Eurotriberians: What is the official retirement age in your country, if there is one?

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Thu Oct 27th, 2005 at 05:18:45 PM EST
Thanks for the insight & more detail on my hobby-horse theme!

As for your question: in Hungary, eight years ago, retirement age was slated to rise to 62 years for both sexes (from 55 and 60), with effect for everyone by 2009 (my parents just fall short of the transition shorter retirement ages).

Just for the heck of it, similarly, in Estonia retirement age is raised to 63 years for both sexes (from 58.5 and already 63) by 2016.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Oct 27th, 2005 at 06:30:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I should add: life expectancy is significantly lower in both countries than in Western Europe, too (tough in the last few years, rising).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Oct 27th, 2005 at 06:34:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the netherlands, everyone gets AOW (general payment for seniors) when they're 65. This is an substantial sum- supposedly enough to live on when you live cheap. But many, many people have private pensions as well (AOW is for everyone and is paid by the working population- it's getting more expensive as the babyboom generation is about to retire).

People with private pensions(the pension company is different for every sector)- this is about everyone- could stop working at 56 in some cases, though this is now being debated in the collective trade agreements. Almost every higher educated person can retire at about 60 without problem, but they get less pension than when they retire at 65 of course.

When you're 65, you're automatically discharged by the way. This way young people are protected from overachieving seniors :)

I'm not sure about low-paying jobs, but I know that people with intensive jobs, like firemen, are allowed to retire young (this makes sense, since firemen generally only live to see their 62nd year).

This is the dutch situation, in a nutshell. I should add that all the costs are covered, companies cannot raid their pension funds, and there is no crisis looming like in other EU countries.

by koenzel (koen@vanschie.net) on Thu Oct 27th, 2005 at 06:34:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BTW, Saturday, could you explain us the big German debate about healthcare reform? It's something I repeatedly tried to make sense of but failed. (Even SPIEGEL articles didn't help.) And if you do - what do the small parties think about this issue?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Oct 27th, 2005 at 06:38:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Health care is one of the most intensely debated issues, and this for a reason. At the moment, we do not have one health insurance system, we have two parallel ones. One part of the population has "public" insurance while the other has "private" insurance. Roughly, the former are less well-to-do people than the latter (I, for instance, have a public health insurance). You can coose your health insurance, but the private one costs more. In the past, this health insurance-parallelism has evolved into some sort of two-class medicine. Privately insured people are much more likely to get expensive treatment than the publicly insured.

Health insurance policy has developed into a quite significant issue especially for the small parties (Greens and FDP). Greens want to integrate health insurance into a public "citizen insurance" which is supposed to cover everyone, with the same benefits for everyone but different monthly contributions according to income. FDP wants to get rid of public insurance as a whole and organise the whole system privately according to market mechanisms, with only a few ameliorations for the least well-offs.

Some conservative politicians from the CDU's neo-liberal/market economy wing (Kirchhof-disciples like Friedrich Merz) are also coqueting with a "flat insurance" with a standard monthly contribution regardless of income. But since Merkel's Kirchhof-crash, luckily, every politician who is only half-way sane keeps away from this project.

This is only a very schematic overwiew about the general health care/health insurance situation. It would certainly be an issue or a longer diary which I would want to write - but, due to time problems, not before next week, sorry.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Fri Oct 28th, 2005 at 06:06:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In Spain we also have public and private medicine, but in my experience neither is better across the board.

Private medicine is better for ordinary care (family medicine and ambulatory treatment) but private clinics and hospitals are not as good as public ones, the reason being that private clinics cuts corners for profit and public hospitals are more often associated with Universities.

Opponents of socialized medicine in the US (well, in the US advocates call it "single-payer system" because they need to avoid the word "social", but I digress) often point out that Canada has fewer MRI machines per capita than the US as if that single statistic captured all you need to know about health care.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Oct 28th, 2005 at 06:33:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's not confuse private medicine with private health insurance. Private health insurance pays for medical treatment, regardless of its public or private nature.
by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Fri Oct 28th, 2005 at 10:05:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Some conservative politicians from the CDU's neo-liberal/market economy wing (Kirchhof-disciples like Friedrich Merz) are also coqueting with a "flat insurance" with a standard monthly contribution regardless of income.

But, here is what I don't understand, is this monthly contribution for a public health care, too?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Oct 28th, 2005 at 07:20:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I forgot to mention: The "flat insurance" model (Kopfpauschalen-Modell), as envisaged by the CDU, does not include those who are privately insured. It sticks to the dual system of private and public health insurance. The monthly contribution will still be one for the public system. For privately insured people, the CDU-model would not change anything. But for publicly insured people, those who are paying less now (because they are earning less) would face rising contributions while those paying (and earning) more would benefit. Some amelioration for the jobless and the poor is supposed to be tax-financed. (This is the main point of critique from a market-liberal point of view like from the FDP.)

But this whole Kopfpauschalen-model is not only about contributions. It also means changing health insurance from an allocation-financed system into a capital-covered system. But this seems to be too far-leading at the moment.

By the way: 88 % of all Germans are publicly health-insured.

Look here for for further information.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Fri Oct 28th, 2005 at 09:48:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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