by Jerome a Paris
Wed Nov 16th, 2005 at 11:18:31 AM EST
Back to the diaries (edited for formatting)
I wanted to write a long diary, but it's beyond me tonight, so I thought I'd just provide a neat map in today's Le Monde (click for bigger version):
Agriculture and trade bloc descriptions below:
G20 - emerging markets asking for an opening up of the markets of the developed world
Cairns Group - countries with very competitive agricultural sectors and strongly pro free trade in that sector (one third of world ag. exports)
US and EU - the traditional protectionists
G10 - highly protectionist countries - and significant importers - keen to protect what remains of their agriculture
G33 - weak ag. countries who ask for specific protections as a total opening of the market scould devastate their economies.
The accompanying article in Le Monde flags various points:
- the WB estimated that a full opening of ag. markets would have a net global benefit of 182 billion $ by 2015. However, this would be unevenly spread:
- the big winners would be exporting countries like Australia, Brasil, Argentina, which subsidise the agriculture little, and are highly specialised, and competitive, in a few products (beef, milk, sugar, wheat);
- the big markets (US and EU) would see losers amongst producers unable to cope with competition, and winners amongst consumers, who would see lower prices (or amongst the distribution chain, if lower import prices are captures there...)
- the non competitive third world would likely be a net loser, as they would lose their preferential access to Europe. The volumes are too small to be significant in any case, except in very specific cases like cotton producers in central Africa which would benefit from an end to export subsidies form the big 2. After losing out to China on textile, these countries would now lose to Brasil or Australia on the agricultural front...