by koenzel
Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 07:10:18 AM EST
From the front page ~ whataboutbob
With the municipal elections less then six months away, and general elections coming up in 2007, I thought it might be interesting for all of you to get a heads-up from the Netherlands. In this post, relevent recent electoral history.
In the 1990s, the Dutch economy doubled in size. The country was governed by the 'Purple' Coalition. The Labour, Liberal(in name, liberal/conservative in practice) and social-liberals governed from 1994 until 2002 with a small election victory in 1998. In was a very irrational coalition, based more on realpolitik than principles. The christian-democratic party had been in government since forever, and switched between coalitions with liberals and labour.
Voters, and politicians, got tired of the attitude of the Christians (direct quote: "We rule this country!"). The purple coalition was very succesfull in turning a shrinking economy into a world-known succes-story. But the ideological differences between labour and the liberals made it difficult to solve the problems, such as growing numbers of refugees, long waiting lists in hospitals, etc. They usually just threw money at the problem, and lowered taxes, so each big party got something.
In 2000, the general mood was that everything went well. But this was a myth that the elite just wanted to believe. Along came Pim Fortuyn, who entered politics in Rotterdam, the second city of the Netherlands and the largest harbor in the world. Like most industry-based cities, unemployment was high, and many immigrants lived in the city.
The 2002 municipal elections felt like an earthquake in the Hague (the seat of government). Fortuyn and his party entered the city-council with 16 seats out of 45, instantly becoming the biggest party. This was especially tough on Labour, the party that had governed Rotterdam for the last 40 years.
Fortuyn rode a wave of discontent. He wrote a book called 'The ruins of eight years Purple' which became an instant best-seller. He also argued something had to be done about the problems with foreign-born dutchmen (Morrocan and Turkish guestworkers who never went back). This position was not something new, the Socialist Party and the leader of the Liberals had argued this for years (but with different solutions, of course).
He was the anti-politician. He was an academic- former proffesor, Ph.D, smoked sigars, was openly gay and had a rich mans accent. He'd been a columnist for years, and argued his many views in snappy quotes. He railed against the career politicians in the Hague, and wanted a more business-like approach.
On the evening of his massive succes in Rotterdam a debate was held on national TV on the implications for the general elections. The leaders of the major parties and Fortuyn were all present, but the leader of Labour refused to shake his hand, congratulate or look at him. Melkert, the Labour leader, was widely assumed to be the next prime-minister. His behaviour on this debate defined his image and led to his fall. Fortuyn was high on adrenalime and the contrast between the exciting, energetic new candidate and 'old politics' couldn't be clearer than it was this evening.
The general election campaign was the most exciting in recent memory- the press railed against Fortuyn, politicians claimed he was xenophobic and fascist and he had to leave his party because of controversial comments over the constitution. He founded his own party, List Pim Fortuyn, and hurried to get enough people on his list. Some people called him up or knocked on his door, and found themselves on the list several days later.
He was assassinated by an animal activist a week before the election. It was an extremely tense situation, but it was decided that elections should be held. The Pim Fortuyn List became the second-largest party (26 seats out of 150) after the Christian Democrats 43 seats. Many later claimed that had Fortuyn lived, the party would have been the largest. Other say that people voted for Fortuyn because he was killed.
The Christian Democrats, under their leader Jan Peter Balkenende became the biggest party, much larger than expected. Analysts contribute this to the turmoil in the days before the election- many voters got confused, weren't going to vote for a dead man or for `old politics', so voted for the only available alternative.
Without their leader, the List Pim Fortuyn was a mess of biblical proportions. Chaos ensued. The liberals, along with Labour the biggest loser of the elections, joined the Christian Democrats and the List Pim Fortuyn in the only realistic coalition. One that took only 90 days to fall apart. Infighting among LPF ministers, unrest among their parliamentarians- the LPF was news every single day.
After the massive defeat of 2002 the Labour party had changed leaders. (they had lost 19 of their 45 seats). Under Wouter Bos and returned as a major party. The public, fed up with the failing leadership op Balkenende (the other reason why his first government fell apart) showed him gaining every day on the Christians. This had some other consequences as well: the small left-wing parties, the Socialist Party and the Greens, had seen their numbers swell in polls but when the elections became a horse race between Balkenende and Bos (who refused to become Prime Minister due to his inexperience, if Labour should win the Mayor of Amsterdam(Job Cohen) would become PM). The left rallied behind Bos, while the right supported Balkenende (they didn't like him, but disliked Labour more- strategic voting is an art here in the Netherlands).
On election eve, Balkenende won 44 seats, and Labour 42. The huge groundswell for Labour made a coalition between the two a logical consequence of the results. The Christian Democrats voters are generally left-moderate, just very loyal to their party. But Balkenende and Bos didn't get along, and the Christians got the Liberals and D66 to form a coalition. This was quite a shock to observers, because the leader of D66 had refused to join such a coalition on election eve, on the grounds that the party had lost seats and should recuperate in opposition.
Balkenende's approval rating is even lower than Bush's, 19%. He joined the US in Iraq while over 60% of the populace was against. Polls have shown Labour winning big since the collapse of coalition negotiations between Balkenende and Bos. The government has introduced rigid laws to tighten immigration and extradite refugees (even those who have had children here), sobered the disabled laws, supported Bush, privatized health insurance. The public doesn't like the direction the government has set out- though it remains to be seen if Labour can prove to be a credible alternative. Interestingly enough, the centre-right government has made a centre-left (Labour, Socialist, Green) government a reality, in the polls at least. But I'll share my view on the next elections in another post :)