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An Intel View of the Secret Prison Story

by susanhu Fri Nov 4th, 2005 at 12:53:49 AM EST

Since you've been discussing the revelatory WaPo piece by reporter Dana Priest on CIA-run secret prisons in Eastern Europe (reportedly in Romania and Poland) -- here and here -- I thought you'd be interested in some informed speculation by Larry Johnson, a former CIA and State Dept. analyst. Larry is a frequent front-pager at BoomanTribune.com.

Secret CIA Prisons: Preemptive Strike or Surprise Attack?
by Larry C. Johnson

Dana Priest's Wednesday scoop in the Washington Post that the CIA has several secret prisons holding suspected terrorists in "friendly" nations, including some in the former Soviet Union and East Bloc, has folks legitimately outraged and wanting to ask tough questions. Based on preliminary checks I've made with folks who "know", the story is solid. What fascinates me in light of the Libby indictment, however, is who tipped her off? There are two likely scenarios:

... Continued below:


Scenario One -- Priest was tipped by CIA personnel, most likely recently retired, who think Porter Goss is being far too accommodating of President Bush and Don Rumsfeld. The CIA wants to play tough with terrorists, but does not want to stray into the arena where the Agency can be accused of massive human rights violations. CIA officers who I know personally, who have been on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq, are uniformly opposed to torture and alarmed by the push into the twilight zone beyond the Geneva Conventions. Yet, there are some CIA officers who are carrying out these orders without asking too many questions.

The few remaining Grey beards who have been through previous scandals (Does the Church Committee ring a bell?) are legitimately worried that the acts committed in the name of fighting the war on terrorism will be used to further discredit what is left of the CIA. In other words, this was a preemptive strike by CIA officers not happy with Goss who want to put the Director on the defensive and stop his ongoing effort to politicize the Directorate of Operations.

Scenario Two -- Priest was tipped by NSC insiders who, angered over the Libby affair and paranoid that the CIA is trying to weaken the Bush Presidency, decided to drive a stake in the heart of the CIA. With the focus on the CIA trying to fend off Congressional investigators there is a chance that the focus on the outing of CIA officer Valerie Wilson will shift to the misdeeds of the CIA clandestine service.

My money is on Scenario One, but that is just an opinion. Regardless of who leaked this information the story is terrible news for the CIA. It conjures up once again the image of a rogue elephant run amuck. It may even ensnare the current head of the State Department's Office of Counter Terrorism, Hank Crumpton, who was working in the Counter Terrorism Center at CIA when these "prisons" were set up. That, in my opinion, would be awful because the early word on Crumpton is that he is the best talent the S/CT shop has had in many years and is making significant strides in trying to coordinate the U.S. Government's chaotic and disjointed counter terrorism effort. Just some initial thoughts.

..............................................................

Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm that helps corporations and governments manage threats posed by terrorism and money laundering. Mr. Johnson, who worked previously with the Central Intelligence Agency and U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism (as a Deputy Director), is a recognized expert in the fields of terrorism, aviation security, crisis and risk management. Mr. Johnson has analyzed terrorist incidents for a variety of media including the Jim Lehrer News Hour, National Public Radio, ABC's Nightline, NBC's Today Show, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, and the BBC. Mr. Johnson has authored several articles for publications, including Security Management Magazine, the New York Times, and The Los Angeles Times. He has lectured on terrorism and aviation security around the world. Further bio details.

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Science fiction author Frank Herbert once wrote a series of novels (THE WHIPPING STAR and THE DOSADI EXPERIMENT) in which a future galactic federation-type regime cultivates in its midst an official Bureau of Sabotage with full roaming mandate to unearth all of the dity tricks the regime is doing and, in effect, blow them up.  An in-house Red Brigade, if you will, whose purpose is to keep the regime itself on the straight and narrow.

I've always loved that Thoreau-like notion taken to its extreme and certainly wish that one could legally strike back (and I do mean "strike") at the scum of the Earth that have dragged the US into the fetid mire of History.

Wishful thinking, of course, but right now a bit of  good old fashioned Baader-Meinhoff ultra-violence (to parahrase Alex) would not be out of place.

by Lupin on Fri Nov 4th, 2005 at 03:47:50 AM EST
In Philip K. Dick's Solar Lottery the ruler of Earth is selected by a lottery and there is an officially sanctioned assasination plot (as well as a secret service to foil it). If the plot is foiled, they start another one. Also, the lottery drawings happen at random intervals. Pretty weird.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 4th, 2005 at 04:28:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Both scenarios seem equally likely at a first glance, and it may be hope that makes us think that it is the first one ("the CIA are - mostly - good guys").

what does make me lean towards the first scenario nevertheless is the idea that NSC/Bush people would not want to compromise their future ability to run torture as they want, and thus put too much of a spotlight on it, even to blame the rival shop.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 4th, 2005 at 04:36:49 AM EST
A long-standing source of tension within the CIA is that the same agency controls intelligence analysis and "black-ops". Many current and former intelligence analysts are very upset at the politization of intelligence, and think that torture hinders intelligence gathering.

The neocons seem to have been at war with CIA intelligence since the mid 1970's (the "Team B" incident).

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 4th, 2005 at 04:56:00 AM EST
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