The coalition is being assembled by Tory MP Douglas Hogg and already has the support of the small parties in Parliament (Lib. Dems, Scottish and Welsh Nationalists). If the Tories stick together in demanding the inquiry, then a few dozen Labour rebels can put Blair under the hot lights. The inquiry will also focus on the role of several other Cabinet ministers in selling the war: Jack Straw, Foreign Secretary; Geoff Hoon, then the Defense Secretary; and the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith.

There are good reasons for thinking that Hogg can find several dozen Labour MPs who would be willing to put Blair's government on the spot. Blair has been in trouble with Labour backbenchers since the nearly disastrous election in May.

The Sunday Times has a second important article here that gives an overview of Blair's problems with Labour MPs on a series of issues. Many of them are deeply dissatisfied with the direction that Blair has been taking the UK. All of this is very reminiscent, actually, of the situation that George Bush faces.

There are many grounds for the swelling dissatisfaction with Blair among Labourites. It has become so intense that I see very good reason to think that Labour rebels may also be keen to punish Blair by helping to open an inquiry into how he took the UK to war in Iraq. If that inquiry occurs, it is sure to be devastating given the types of documents that have come to light in the last year, in particular the Downing Street Memo. I think this could be the impetus to something huge.

The autumn of discontent

Labour lost so many seats in the May election that immediately there was talk in the Party's upper echelons that Blair would have to step down soon and allow Gordon Brown to take over as Prime Minister. Blair clearly wants to stay longer than many of his MPs desire, and he's been trying all summer and autumn to rebuild a sense of inevitability around his retaining power. What he has done, however, is postpone a crisis within the Party rather than forestall it entirely.

In fact, Blair tried to regain momentum in much the same way as George Bush did after his November election, by introducing a series of extraordinary reforms--with much the same results. The initiatives have dragged him down. Blair's `reforms' look increasingly right-wing, and increasingly Laborites have been opposing him on them.

For example, Blair introduced a bill in Parliament that's been likened to the Patriot Act. It would give sweeping powers to the police in the UK to detain terror suspects for fully ninety days without charge. In a key vote last week on the bill, Blair was almost defeated (he barely managed to get a majority of only one--the session has been called a mauling of Blair). Next week Blair had intended to push for another vote on part of this bill, even though the chief Labour whip has warned Blair of defeat if he does go ahead (per the Sunday Times).

If Blair insists on putting the proposal to the vote on Wednesday, a defeat could trigger calls for a vote of confidence in his government.

The Observer, in it's own story on Blair's troubles, states that yesterday Blair did a U-turn in the face of almost certain defeat:

Tony Blair was preparing a humiliating climbdown over anti-terror laws last night in what will be seen as a further blow to his dwindling personal authority.

Senior Downing Street sources said that although the Prime Minister remains personally convinced that allowing police to detain suspects for up to 90 days without trial is essential to combating the threat from al-Qaeda, he has now accepted that in the present political climate he will have to compromise.

Without a change, Blair faced the prospect of his first defeat in the House of Commons this week, with MPs warning that he would have to quit if he lost and the Tories threatening to shoot down the entire anti-terror legislation. He was also facing protests within his own cabinet.

In an unusual step, No 10 has withdrawn from negotiations on the controversial 90-day rule and left the Home Secretary, Charles Clarke - who is understood to have protested that rejecting a deal would put him in an impossible position - to find a compromise.

The terror bill has raised fears across the political spectrum of the incrimental rise of a police state. After the brutal killing in the London underground of an unarmed and innocent young man, Jean Charles de Menezes, by a special unit of the Metropolitan police trained in anti-terrorist operations, the sweeping powers granted police in the terror bill have been viewed with increasing concern. Over time, the news has only gotten worse. It's increasingly clear that the Metropolitan police utterly botched the surveillance of de Menezes; had no real grounds for suspecting that he was dangerous; killed him after he was subdued; and assisted in spreading false stories about the operation to cover themselves. All of that makes people less willing to make vast concessions to allow police to work beyond normal scrutiny. Yet Blair has tried to proceed with his terror bill as if it were just a question of selling it successfully. Like the ham-fisted head of the Metropolitan police, Blair looks increasingly out of touch and authoritarian.

Blair has also introduced several other `reforms' of British government that to many Labourites look more appropriate to a Tory government. One of his plans calls for an increase in the private sector's role in the National Health Service, the crown jewel of the British social welfare system. Another plan hatched by Blair would take local state schools out of the hands of local authorities. That is just this side of political suicide. Indeed, Blair's deputy PM, John Prescott, is resisting him on the Education bill--causing other Laborites to be more forceful in opposition. As the Sunday Times reports:

Of the 61 backbenchers who responded to a Sunday Times survey, only 11 actively supported the proposed changes in education, 25 were opposed and 16 had doubts. On the NHS reforms, 21 were against and 10 had doubts. On Blair's proposals to increase to 90 days the time police can hold terror suspects without charge, 20 were opposed and one had doubts.

One Labour MP from Manchester went on record with the Sunday Times about Blair's situation:

"Tony Blair's authority has diminished for a whole series of factors," he said. "The education paper is almost universally unpopular, and not just among backbenchers. It's as close as you can get to zero support. What's being trailed on the health white paper I suspect will face universal opposition. I am opposed."

In addition, Blair's government is enmeshed in charges of corruption (I said he was resembling Bush more every day). One of his Cabinet ministers, David Blunkett, had to resign (for the second time) from the Cabinet last week over charges of corruption, and Blair has been lambasted for doing nothing to uphold the code of ethics for ministers.

Furthermore, Christopher Meyer (former Ambassador to the U.S.) has weighed in very publicly against Blair on several issues. Blair's troubles in recent months, Meyer said, are very reminiscent of the last days of John Major's government. Meyer suggested Blair has reached "the point of no return."

Criticism by Meyer will carry weight. The former ambassador contradicted Blair's comments on the July 7 attacks by claiming "there is plenty of evidence" that "home-grown terrorism was partly radicalised and fuelled" by Iraq. "Don't tell me being in Iraq has nothing to do with it . . . To say otherwise is barking mad," he said.

The Prime Minister has given an interview to The Guardian in which he says that the Tories are trying to "decouple" him from Labour. He terms the mounting attacks upon his leadership "an elephant trap".

He [Blair] urged restive Labour MPs not to fall for the Tory claim that he is implementing a "helter-skelter" reform programme simply to secure his own personal legacy....The tone of yesterday's interview in Sedgefield suggests the prime minister is determined to press ahead with the reform programme, but now recognises the dangers to his leadership if a wedge is driven between him and his party. "This is a very tough and critical moment for the Labour party, I do not doubt that at all," Mr Blair said....What the Tories had done was "set an elephant trap with neon signs around it, and some in Labour want to drive straight into it", he claimed.

It could not happen to a nicer elephant, as far as I'm concerned.

All in all, it looks increasingly like a serious crisis for Blair. Gordon Brown was even encouraged to call wavering MPs from overseas (where he is on business) to ask them to support Blair next week with the terror bill vote--since abandoned.

Whither Blair?

Briefly, pundits around Britain largely agree that Blair is very weakened and subject to attacks that now appear to be persistent and almost unstoppable. Unflattering comparisons are being made to John Major's collapse, which looked very similar. Major has even weighed in on ITV, saying that there is more sleaze in Blair's government than there had been in his own. Blair's climbdown over the terror bill vote for next week confirms that he feared he was about to face more intense calls for his resignation, if (as likely) he lost the vote.

It is fair to say that his grip on power is shaky. This may make it more likely that the inquiry into the use of pre-war intel will go ahead.

The Sunday Times quoted Sir Menzies Campbell, the foreign affairs spokesman for the Lib Dems:

"Information that has emerged, in particular the memos leaked to The Sunday Times, strengthen overwhelmingly the case for an inquiry into the judgments of ministers, and in particular the prime minister, in the run-up to war and thereafter," he said.

The evidence of outright deception by the Blair government has been well documented in the last year. In particular, the Downing Street Memo raised major questions that have never been seriously addressed by Blair.

The same of course can and will be said of George Bush. If an inquiry of Blair goes forward, it will help to ensnare Bush. Any news from the UK on this subject will be transmitted at lightning speed to the US.

I am anticipating news on a stunning scale. To date, the British have been leaking important and substantive information about the manipulation of WMD intel. The opposition within the government and in Labour is reasonably firm, and I suspect that its resolve will only grow stronger.

Cross posted at Daily Kos