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London Bombings: Part 4

by soj Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 03:16:56 AM EST

Time to double buckle the chin strap on my new "hat" because the investigation keeps getting weirder.


Let me add a couple of disclaimers here - I know that investigating the oddities of published reports puts me in the company of some real nuts and wackos. I also know that questioning or querying the official reports as they come in tends to aggravate some people, who don't even want to hear it. So be it, on both accounts.

Secondly, I have no idea who set up these bombs and I'm not saying I do. My job is to ask questions not to promulgate answers. If you think I'm pointing the finger at group X or group Y and saying "they did it" then you aren't reading what I'm writing.

Thirdly, I am fully aware the investigation is not over and I do hope that when it is completed a lot of these questions will be answered.

In Parts 2 and 3 I examined the oddity of four men who were fully integrated in British society with a lot to live for giving up their lives for a suicide bombing run. In this part, I will examine the strange and inconsistent story of the explosives used.

One oddity is that three of the men - Siddique Khan, Hasib Hussain and Shehzad Tanweer all traveled to Luton in a Nissan Micra. I just happened to see one parked on the street this morning (they're not common in Romania) and I can tell you it's a tiny vehicle. Click here to see an image of one and try to imagine three grown men plus three full-sized backpacks (described in media reports as "large" and visible on the released images as being quite big) filled with explosives in this car. The car has no trunk (or "boot") so the men had to have traveled with an enormous amount of explosives right there jammed in the back seat.

Lindsey Germaine, living in Aylesbury, drove to Luton alone in a Fiat Brava. Again it's a fairly small car (image here) but it is conceivable that there was space for the backpacks and explosives.

But if Germaine brought all the explosives, that would mean he is more closely tied to whomever manufactured the explosives. Indeed all the reports I've seen connect the explosives to the Fiat that Lindsey drove rather than the Micra with the three other men.

There are reports that some explosive material was found in Germaine's Fiat (destroyed in 9 separate "controlled explosions" by the bomb squad). According to media reports, there was a lot of explosive left in the Fiat as well as detonators. Why load up the car with material and detonators you didn't need?

However the factory or place of manufacture has been tied to Leeds, which is where the other three men resided. In fact, the British police say they have found 22 pounds of the explosive used in London inside a bathtub in an apartment in Leeds rented to Magdy al-Nashar, an Egyptian chemistry student.

So if the explosive material was manufactured in Leeds, how did it get to the Luton train station where the four men met up on July 7, parked their cars (leaving some explosive and detonators behind), loaded up their backpacks and then boarded a train to London's King's Cross station, where they parted ways and 3 of them blew up at the same time while the fourth waited 57 minutes to explode?

Actually the material discovered in Leeds was not the finished product, just the potentially dangerous chemicals used to make the alleged explosive. Clearly there doesn't seem to be any reasonable explanation for why someone would have so much of these chemicals (variously described as "available at any pharmacy"). But how did they get to the Luton train station? In the Nissan with the three men or in the Fiat with Germaine? And if they came via Germaine, that means someone moved the explosive from Leeds to Aylesbury beforehand. Germaine's car was a rental, the same as the other three men, who rented theirs.

Except that while some stories describe finding large amounts of the ingredients used to make explosives in al-Nashar's apartment, other sources list it as just "traces". There's a heck of a difference between "traces" and "22 pounds" of material.

So what kind of explosive was found in al-Nashar's apartment? And what kind of explosive was used in the London bombings? You might be surprised that the police have not officially said what was used. But a whole lot of media sources, especially in Britain, are saying that it was TATP or acetone peroxide.

I'm not a biochemist so I'll rely on the experts but TATP is an explosive made from three easy to get ingredients - acetone, hydrogen peroxide and sulphuric acid. I think everyone recognizes "hydrogen peroxide" as an astringent and common liquid for sale in drug stores/pharmacies. "Acetone" sounds fancy but it is more commonly known in the U.S. as fingernail polish remover. The final ingredient, sulphuric acid, isn't for sale in pharmacies or drug stores but it has a lot of uses in chemistry labs and it isn't a controlled substance. So anyone, like say an Egyptian chemistry student, could get their hands on it fairly easily.

I don't know what "traces" might have been found in al-Nashar's apartment but bomb sniffing dogs usually alert on the acetone, which in this case could mean either harmless traces of fingernail polish remover or else something more sinister. If on the other hand "22 pounds" of these chemicals were found that would be something else altogether, although again al-Nashar may have had several different chemical solutions in his apartment for "ordinary" chemistry experiments or dabbling. Either way, with the story constantly changing, it's hard to say.

The problem with TATP is that it's extremely unstable. It's "easy" to make, so a university chemistry student could definitely make it, but it isn't easy to store. It is nicknamed the "Mother of Satan" because it is both extremely powerful and unstable. In fact, it has injured many professional chemists while attempting to make it and it is particularly sensitive to vibration.

Therefore if the explosives used in London were TATP and they were made in Leeds, that would mean that were transported to Luton by car (by way of Aylesbury?), then from Luton to London by train and then put in backpacks and set off a while later in three underground subway stations (and an hour later on a bus). That's a lot of vibrations along this sensitive explosive's journey.

It's worth noting here that Richard Reid, the "shoe bomber", had just 100 grams (4 ounces) of PETN in his shoes when he was arrested. The London bombers have been described as having 10 pounds or 40 times as much explosive in their backpacks. PETN is a more "stable" version of TATP because it has a chemical additive.

Again I remind you that the police have not officially stated what kind of explosives were used. There are mainstream reports that it was C4:

C4 is manufactured mostly in the United States, and is more deadly and efficient than commercial varieties. It is easy to hide, stable, and is often missed by traditional bomb-sniffing detection systems, the newspaper said.

Forensic scientists told the newspaper the construction of the four devices detonated in London was very technically advanced, and unlike any instructions that can be found on the Internet.

There are other reports that it was military TNT originating from "former Soviet satellite countries". Other media reports cite the head of French anti-terrorism, Christophe Chaboud, saying it was some kind of military explosives, from the "Balkans".

There are also reports that the explosive was something called CX123, manufactured in China. Link goes to an interview in German with the chief of the Mossad, Meir Dagan.

The strangest reports are that Jermaine Lindsay bought £900 worth of perfume days before the bombings as some kind of "accelerant":

The Gaultier fragrances were in metal containers which would have splintered into lethal shrapnel in an explosion. Lindsay bought 10.

Terror expert Dr Andrew Silke, of the University of East London, said: "The active ingredient in any perfume is alcohol which can be used in creating devices.

"The effect would be more incendiary, like napalm, rather than highly explosive. It would create more more fire and therefore more burn injuries."

On July 4 Lindsay visited branches of the Fragrance Shop in his home town of Aylesbury, Bucks, and Milton Keynes and Woolworth's in Aylesbury, spending about £300 in each store.

The following day he returned to the Fragrance Shop in Aylesbury searching for a bottle of Boss In Motion perfume he had been unable to buy at Milton Keynes.

"While there, he got really agitated because he wanted a perfume called Boss In Motion Green which comes in a little hard sphere. He was telling them 'I must have one - where can I get one?' Next day he bought it from us."

"Apparently he went back to the shop in Milton Keynes all flustered saying, 'Have you seen a red bag I had?' They didn't have it and I don't know if he ever found it again. But he was really worried."

£900 is about $1,600 dollars. That is one heck of a lot of perfume and cologne. And buying perfume is about the single most expensive way to obtain alcohol. If someone wanted to create a "napalm effect" to enhance the deadliness of a bomb, there are a lot cheaper sources such as isopropyl alcohol (rubbing), ethanol (available to chemists in its pure form), mouthwash, cough syrup and vanilla extract amongst others. Not to mention ordinary "hard liquor".

As for the Gautier coming in small metal containers which would cause shrapnel injuries if exploded - it's much lot cheaper to buy metal "drinking" flasks or thermoses. Walk into any hardware store for a wide variety of cheaper metal objects which could be filled with alcohol.

Clearly a young man like Lindsey, married with a young child and a pregnant wife, buying $1600 worth of purchases on his credit card is strange. However considering that this is about the most wasteful way to obtain alcohol and shrapnel-causing devices, it could be that these were simply gifts for people he was planning on seeing relatively soon.

The investigation continues... stay tuned for Part 5, where the story really falls off the deep end.

Peace

Display:
Nissan Micras have boots. They are hatchbacks. You'd fit a couple of rucksacks in the boot I think. Especially standing up. You Americans have warped ideas about the sizes of cars.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 04:03:02 AM EST
Oh, and the Brava is the next up from the Punto, which we drive, and you'd fit lots of stuff in the boot of that. Lots and lots. Especially if you fold the back seat down, which turns it into a small van.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 04:04:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Since the reports seem to be coming in that only the Fiat had explosives found in it, this might be moot.  However I am telling you that Nissan Micra doesn't have room for 3 or 4 large camping backpacks like the ones shown in the footage.  Furthermore, even if it did, all those explosives would be just behind the backseat bomber with just a thin layer of fabric between them.

I spent 10 minutes looking at that Micra this morning trying to imagine what it would be like riding down in the early morning hours knowing that would be your last.

Pax

Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

by soj on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 07:15:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Soj, one possibility is that the four men carrying the bombs didn't know much about the technicalities.  Whether or not they were unstable is a moot point (see other comments) but it's possible the four were not involved in the manufacture and knew little of the characteristics of the bombs.

Most interesting from my perspective is that nobody commenting on this diary has questioned whether the bombers were actually intending to kill themselves.  I was interested to read this article in this morning's Sydney Morning Herald, which quotes Scotland Yard, a 'security official' and Saturday's Daily Mirror on some good arguments (and circumstantial evidence) to suggest that the bombers might have been led to believe that they would set the bombs and escape.

by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 09:52:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I now see that you covered the "were they suicide bombers?' aspect in your part 3 (incidentally the link above seems to transfer me to your front page rather than the specific post).
by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 10:11:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nice review and analysis of many reports. I look forward to taking the plunge off the deep end of Report 5.

Hannah K. O'Luthon
by Hannah K OLuthon on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 04:04:50 AM EST
Soj, at this stage you seem to be hanging speculation around the ramblings of the media who seem to be basing  reports on speculation. I'd say that the guy who cleans the office of the girl who knows one of the cousins of someone actually involved in the investigation could at least get a couple of drinks out of a journalist in return for any sort of made up speculation right now. Obsessing about the details of reports isn't going to get you very far.

The most striking thing is the two pregnant wives. That's just strange.

A guy who intends committing a suicide bombing doesn't care about expense. He's not going to spend it anyhow.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 04:11:02 AM EST
Well I appreciate the easy dismissal of what I've done Coleman.  When I first started reading some tinfoil stuff that's been written, I did the same.

It's a little bit more than media speculation however.  The head of French counter-terrorism is a little more knowledgeable than the guy who cleans the office of the girl who knows a cousin of someone actually involved in the investigation I would think.  

I might add that I'm writing this series in different parts so they will (potentially) add up to a cohesive whole.  This particular "episode" focused on the explosives and in my humble and apparently underrated opinion, this issue is quite important.

If the explosives were "do it yourself" that a chemistry major could whip up in a bathtub with ordinary ingredients, that's quite frightening.  It means that any terrorist, from the fanatical Muslim type to the Eric Rudolph Christian type to the Basque type to the white British neonazi type might soon be whipping up batches for more mayhem.

On the other hand, if these were military explosives, that's a major break.  Because military explosives can be traced back to their origin, which might be an essential clue as to who orchestrated this event.

Pax

Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

by soj on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 07:26:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To be fair to Colman, Chaboud, cited in  a Scotsman article dated the 12th July, uses the words "appear" and "probably" when he "suggests" that the explosives were of Balkan military origin. Basically, Chaboud was making speculative comments which were not empirically or evidentially based. Given that Chaboud has an agenda ( it was Gerbouzi wot dunnit! ) - he is no more reliable a source than any other.

Ironically, the Scotsman sidebar leads to today's report that the investigators have still not identified the explosives used in the bombings. Likewise the FT cites unnamed intelligence sources - that appear to be just plain wrong about this.

The reality is, that poring over the contradictory press reports just illuminates how much noise there is propagated in the press, and how hard it is to discern the signal.

by londanium on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 08:00:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I do note however that Chaboud has been in London working with Scotland Yard.  Obviously like I said in my intro, we'll have to wait until the investigation is over but it does seem like he was eager to spill some beans and was in a position to see the info on said beans.

Why he would do so falls into the realm of the political... I'm curious however if "Balkans" is a codeword for "Czech Republic".

Pax

Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

by soj on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 08:29:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why Czech Republic? Is there something going on there we should be aware of? I can't keep track any more.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 08:38:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In light of Londanium's comments, I might be on the wrong track here.  Czech Republic manufactured an explosive called Semtex, which for many years did not have any chemical tags added so it was virtually undetectable (while being transported).

A lot of it was sold to Libya during the Communist era, when the Arab states were "friendlies".  

Pax

Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

by soj on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 09:50:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've heard of it. There's still rather a lot of it knocking around Ireland and the UK: the IRA got loads of it, and I don't believe much was actually used (relatively).
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 09:52:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd contextualise Chaboud's comment in the following way: The French intelligence and security services have been well pissed off with the UK for a good ten years now regarding the large numbers of Algerians that they would rather see "off the streets". The UK, operating on old "gentleman's agreement" principles, has resisted French pressure to lock up or deport lots of people, and there has been a history of conflict over this issue.

Whilst he may have been in London assisting the investigation - he's not a ground-floor forensics investigator; and his language was hedged in such a way in the article for it to be clear that it was a speculative take.

There's also the prior event paradigm to take into account: seeing events in London in the light of events in Madrid, whilst "natural" - I certainly did to begin with - often leads down the wrong track. I doubt that Chaboud is any more immune to this than most of us - and I would certainly characterise him as someone likely to have a political agenda that he is seeking to advance.

I think that references to the Balkans would not include the Czech Republic. Specifically, I would guess that Chaboud is referring to the Former Yugoslavia or Albania, but I couldn't narrow it down any further than that. If he's referencing smuggled Balkan explosives then it's likely that he is making the obvious point that people and drug smuggling networks can also be used to smuggle explosives.

by londanium on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 09:11:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not being dismissive. I appreciate your hard work. I just don't believe that the vast majority of "facts" reported in the media have any basis in reality. Even if the head of French intelligence knew something, would he tell the truth at this time?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 08:06:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
David Copeland - the white neo-nazi 1999 London nail-bomber - constructed his bombs using fireworks as the explosive ingredient. And ammonium nitrate/fuel oil combinations have long been popular with terrorists - IRA, McVeigh etc.

I think that one of the "issues" regarding this type of terrorism is that there is a DIY element to it - which makes it templateable and easily reproducible, elsewhere described as "open source" . This has obvious consequences when policy makers are always looking for state-based links and high-tech angles; AQ and affiliates are really "jiu-jitsu" practitioners, and are, as far as I can tell, interested in looking for low-tech, easily replicable methods.

by londanium on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 10:16:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
.
JTAC report led to lower terror alert - NYT reg. reqr'd

NEW YORK July 18, 2005 (Reuters) -- Britain's top intelligence and law enforcement officials concluded less than a month before the London bombings that there was no group with current intent and the capability to attack the U.K., the New York Times reported on Tuesday, citing a confidential intelligence report.

The Times said authorities made their conclusion in the wake of a terror threat assessment by the Joint Terrorist Analysis Center, which includes officials from Britain's top intelligence agencies, as well as Customs and the Metropolitan Police.

The assessment, according to the newspaper, prompted the British government to lower its formal threat assessment one level, from "severe defined" to "substantial." Asked to comment on the document, a senior British official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said according to the newspaper, "We do not discuss intelligence assessments."

Britain says Egyptian had no role in bombs

CAIRO July 19, 2005 (Reuters) -- British authorities are sure that an Egyptian biochemist being questioned in Egypt had no role in the London bombings, a state-owned Egyptian newspaper said today, quoting a senior security official.

"There is complete security cooperation with the British side, which is convinced from the questioning carried out by Egypt, that Elnashar had no role in these explosions," al-Ahram newspaper quoted the security source as saying.

Chemist Has 'No Links' With Al Qaeda


Egyptian biochemist Magdy Mahmoud el-Nashar  

US and British Gov't Under Fire by UK Muslims of Luton

LUTON, England July 18, 2005 (AFP) -- In a Muslim district of Luton, where the four suspected London bombers met on the morning of July 7, all agreed the attacks were wrong, but were quick to point to the Iraq war as an explanation for them. Muslims, most of them originally from Bangladesh and Pakistan, make up 14.5 percent of Luton's 180,000 inhabitants.

Although few people in the neighbourhood voiced extreme views, all had harsh words for US President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

"Bush and Blair, they are not caring about the people in Iraq, about the innocent people getting killed," said Abdul Mohammed, 45, a Sunni Muslim from Bangladesh who settled in Britain 29 years ago. He felt his religion to be under attack by Western powers. "Since the last 10 years, they are trying to control everything all over the world ... Islam is attacked: in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in Palestine," argued the father of four.

  • BBC News - TIMELINE
  • BBC News - Routes of the Bombers


    UK Ministers reject Iraq terror link

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  • by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 05:22:21 AM EST
    I saw yesterday that Juan Cole had guessed that he might be working with Egyptian intelligence:

    One possibility is that he was "turned" when he was arrested in 1992 and does some informing for the Egyptian government on the radical Muslim networks.

    What I read today makes it seem like Cole might be right on that one:

    "Through interrogations carried out by Egypt, the British side was assured that el-Nashar has no role in the explosions," the newspaper quoted the unidentified official as saying

    One way they might know that he had no role is if they knew where he was already and what he was doing because he was working for them.

    Or I could be wrong...

    by Planet B (planb247atyahoodotcom) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 08:26:21 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Buying $1600 worth of perfume as gifts is pretty bizarre as well - that's an awful lot of identical gifts for an awful lot of people - although if you're never going to actually foot the bill, then this is moot.

    I've got no idea why they may have used perfume, rather than other more obvious ingredients - only a bomb expert could provide a definitive answer to that. It is just about possible that they really were "amateur" bomb-makers and the "incoherent" or puzzling aspects are a reflection of this.

    by londanium on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 07:40:39 AM EST
    Explosives used in London bombings 'originated in the Balkans'

    Dublin July 14, 2005 (Irish Examiner) -- THE BALKANS were last night being named as the possible source of the explosive material used in the London bombings.

    French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy told the emergency meeting of EU justice ministers in Brussels, that there was strong suspicion the explosives used in the bombings came from the Balkans or Eastern Europe, where it is possible to buy the material on the black market after the Balkan wars.

    However, British Home Secretary Charles Clarke said he was bewildered by the comments.

    Determining the origin of the explosives is vital and investigators believe one man assembled all four devices. Initial forensic investigations suggest each device used in the attack had less than 10 pounds (4.5kg) of explosive, a quantity small enough to have been hidden in a rucksack.

    Traces of military plastic explosive, more deadly and efficient than commercial varieties is understood to have been found in the debris of the wrecked Underground carriages and the bus.

    Scotland Yard has asked its counterparts around Europe to check stockpiles at military bases and building sites for missing explosives. Military explosive is hard to detect even by trained sniffer dogs, easy to hide, and stable if smuggled across a European border and then into Britain in a container.

    Superintendent Christophe Chaboud, head of the French security service's Anti-terrorist Co-ordination Unit, said: "The use of military explosives is very worrying. We are more used to seeing home-made explosives, made from chemicals. How did they procure them? Either they were supplied by the underground market, for example from the Balkans, or they benefited from accomplices who removed explosives from a military base."

    After intensive efforts, availability of Semtex [1] used extensively by the Provisional IRA, has dried up. However, there are a number of alternatives, notably C4, which comes in sticks and can be moulded into a shape suitable for a bomb. C4 is a high-quality plastic explosive that has been used by al-Qaida-affiliated terrorists in other attacks.

    The explosive is manufactured mainly in the US but there is evidence that military explosives have been bought by terrorist groups from sources in Croatia and elsewhere in the Balkans. Islamic militants are reported to have obtained military explosives from Belgrade in recent years.


    USS Cole - attack with C4 explosives

    [1] Semtex   It is generally believed that the IRA still has at least 2.5 tonnes of Semtex with a shelf life of perhaps another 20 years.

    ~~~

    Related Diaries/Comments @BooMan  by Oui

  • Al Qaeda & Richard Reid Link ◊ London Explosives type TATP ¶ Updated!
  • UK Faces Terror Risk Because of US Alliance ◊ Chatham House Report

    ~~~

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  • by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 10:23:23 AM EST
    Here's a list of explosives that are detectable with standard detection kits. In the case of Semtex - only 2 nanograms are needed as an identifiable trace....

    Military Explosives

    GUN COTTON
    PICRIC ACID
    CAST TNT
    FLAKE TNT
    RDX COMPOSITION B
    TETRAZENE
    HMX
    TETRYL
    PETN
    COMPOSITION 3
    PE 808
    PE4
    SX-2
    COMPOSITION 4

    Home Made Explosives

    ANS CO-OP
    ANFO
    ANNIE   

    Industrial Explosives

    SEMTEX-H
    SEMTEX-10
    PLASTIC D1
    SEMTEX-1A PLASTIC
    FULMINATE OF MERCURY
    LEAD AZIDE
    TNRS
    DDNP
    BLACK POWDER
    STRAIGHT DYNAMITE
    AMMONIA DYNAMITE
    GELATINE DYNAMITE
    AMMONIA GELATINE DYNAMITE
    DYNAMITE POWDER
    SLURRIES & EMULSIONS
    TNT BASED POWDER
    GRISUTIN

    You can't be me, I'm taken

    by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 06:41:32 PM EST
    Every time I read about something like these London bombings, I wonder what has happened to the, was it 350 tons? or 350 thousand tons? of high explosives that went missing from an unguarded weapons cache in Iraq a couple of years ago because Donald Rumsfeld couldn't be bothered to do any long-term planning for the neocons' slam-dunk invasion.

    Clearly, much of it is in use in Iraq, but it's easily portable in smaller quantities.

    by Mnemosyne on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 07:51:08 PM EST
    In fact it is remarkable that the story can change so much. From claims of traces of military/industrial explosives and timers which disappear down the memory hole, to a story of a dangerously unstable, unsuitable explosive. Apparently the pyro / explosive blogs are extremely skeptical about the story about TATP, which they say would only be useful for the detonator charge.

    I think Blair and Bush would be extremely interested in submerging any direct connection between coalition negligence in securing crucial WMD facilities, and the London bombs. They have succeeded in muddying the waters enough to deflect any widespread perception of a connection.

    I also find the discrepancy in the story about the bathtub of TATP interesting, since one source says a trace, while the other report says "22lbs" of what should be liquid ingredients. Is it common in the UK to use weight measures to describe liquid volumes?

    by Cache on Wed Jul 20th, 2005 at 03:28:45 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    soj, do you follow any of the commentary at www.rigorous intuition.blogspot?

    here's some ingredients to add to the soup:

    quote:

    Follow the money is a cliche because its truth became trite by matching an overly-familiar pattern. Like the scorpion that jabs the turtle carrying it to shore, the power elite can't forego an opportunity to make a sting. "It's in my nature."

    "Does Alan Greenspan have some explaining to do?" begins a provocative analysis of the actions of the Federal Reserve in the hours before the London bombings by The Cunning Realist - an "executive in the financial industry" who describes himself as a "lifelong conservative with a strong independent streak." (And judging by his blogroll, which includes links to Andrew Sullivan, The National Review and Talking Points Memo, I'd say he pegged himself pretty well.)

    He writes:

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance to the financial markets of Fed-created liquidity. In a paper from August 2003, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis wrote, "Open market operations are not another weapon in the Fed's arsenal, but the only weapon in its arsenal."

    With that in mind, what happened last week is fascinating. Here are two charts of the Fed's recent level of activity. The first shows the expanding and shrinking daily size of the temporary liquidity pool. The date (ending on July 8th) is indicated on the bottom of the chart, and the size of the pool in billions is on the left:

    The second graph represents the Fed's injections of permanent liquidity:

    The Cunning Realist adds:

    "The terrorist attacks in London took place on Thursday. The Fed dramatically increased the pool of liquidity available for stocks to a multi-year high 48 hours before that---an ideal amount of time for that liquidity to filter into the market---and kept it elevated for the next few days. And indeed, it worked. The stock market saw heavy buying right at the opening bell on Thursday and has shot straight up since then.

    "Why did the Fed do this? Was it just another coincidence in our financial markets that somehow managed to immediately precede a major geopolitical event?"

    Fintan Dunne of breakfornews.com has also picked up the story, and writes that the Federal Reserve "has previously supported financial markets by increasing liquidity to boost the stock market - as happened after 9/11. But... the Fed had already hugely increased liquidity 48 hours before [the London attacks], just in time for that liquidity to filter into the market."

    I found it interesting that the Cunning Realist writes "financial professionals generally consider this 'man behind the curtain' stuff. Those who are aware of it don't like to discuss it, because it implies that stocks rise and fall based on something other than fundamentals and their own acumen."

    They say you have to be lucky to be good, but they would say that. After all, they're the carnies calling the suckers into the tent of the marketplace. You pay your money and you take your chance. And if you play the game, you might get lucky, but you don't get to roll with Rockefeller and Greenspan. Because maybe to be good, more than being lucky, you need to be bad.

    posted by Jeff at 1:00 AM  26 comments

    Sunday, July 17, 2005

    Pictures from a demolition

    I don't know what to make of this yet, except to say look at this:

    The photo is the BBC's, taken in the immediate aftermath of the London bus bombing. Notice the white "Kingstar" van parallel-parked opposite the site of the blast? (The van is facing the opposite direction of the bus; the front of the bus had just passed.) Any guess what business is Kingstar's? Would you believe, "Controlled Demolition...in areas where minimal disruption and minimal noise requirements are paramount"?

    It may turn out to be nothing, as things sometimes turn out to be, but it's at least another curio for the increasingly curious case of the suicide bombers who weren't. "Why did they buy return train tickets to Luton? Why did they buy pay & display tickets for cars? Why were there no usual shouts of 'Allah Akhbar'? Why were bombs in bags and not on their bodies?" asks The Daily Mail.

    end quote

    just when you thought it couldn't get weirder....along comes part 5!

    great snooping soj

    'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

    by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Jul 20th, 2005 at 04:39:57 AM EST
    .
    The Guardian - Some Passengers Used Their Mobile Phones
    Eyewitness account - July 8, 2005 - Circle line, Liverpool Street - Aldgate.

    "We tried to open the doors but the doors were fixed shut and the ash was settling everywhere," said Loyita Worley, 49, who had also been travelling in the third carriage.

    As some passengers used their mobile phones to let loved ones know they were alive, some of the walking wounded were moving into less damaged carriages through connecting doors to get away from the smoke. "There was blood dripping off them, they were all white," Ms Worley said.

    Odd - It is impossible to use mobile phones in the tunnels.

    Eyewitness account - July 8, 2005 - Tavistock Square, Bus № 30 Explosion

    According to eyewitnesses and police, the device appears to have been placed somewhere near the back of the bus's top deck. Raj Mattoo, 35, who works at the charity Scope, said: "As I looked at the bus I saw it explode. The explosion was at the back. It ripped off the roof that was thrown 10 metres in the air ..."

    "There was what seemed like a muffled bang and a huge plume of smoke," said Neil Courtis, 34, a financial journalist. "I went towards the blast and saw a woman with her left leg blown off. She looked in a bad way. I could smell cordite."

    Smell of cordite at the Pentagon on 9/11

    The airliner crashed between two and three hundred feet from my office in the Pentagon, just around a corner from where I work. ... I walked to my office, shut down my computer, and headed out. Even before stepping outside I could smell the cordite. Then I knew explosives had been set off somewhere.  

    A personnel attorney at the Pentagon, Goldsmith was riding a shuttle bus to work on Tuesday, Sept. 11, when she learned of the attack on the World Trade Center. ... "We saw a huge black cloud of smoke," she said, saying it smelled like cordite or gun smoke.  

    An e-mail
    from an employee of Stagecoach, the company responsible for the majority of London buses.

    Our contact works a route roughly one mile from the site of the bus bombing on July 7. The bus driver pointed out that the number 30 bus was the only one to be re-routed after the initial bombs went off in the London Underground,
    every other bus carried on its normal journey, but for some reason this bus was diverted.

    The driver notes the following about CCTV maintenance.
    "CCTV gets maintained at least 2 or 3 times a week and can digitally store up to 2 whole weeks worth of footage. this is done by a private contractor....So when I heard that the CCTV wasn't working on a vehicle that's no more than 2 years old since last June.....I'm sorry that's rubbish, I work for the company I know different."

    ~~~

  • Cross-posted London Bombing diaries at Daily Kos ◊ by new creve coeur

    USA WELCOME: Make Yourself Known @BooMan Tribune and add some cheers!

    'Sapere aude'

  • by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jul 20th, 2005 at 06:35:19 AM EST
    [ Parent ]


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