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Throwing Stones in the Nuclear Glass House

by soj Mon Aug 15th, 2005 at 03:46:51 PM EST

For just one moment in time, I am going to promote you to ruler of the planet Earth. You have exactly 5 minutes to make a decision that will be held binding afterwards.

The question before you is, which country or countries will you award the right to develop and keep nuclear weapon capabilities?

  • Nation A - A dictatorship run by a military general who came to power in a coup and refuses to hold elections. Nation A has long supported and financed terrorist organizations, including ones which have killed thousands of Americans and other westerners throughout the world. Nation A also has strategic and military alliances with other dictatorships which help it build, among other things, ballistic and cruise missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. Nation A has fought 3 full-scale conventional wars in the last 50 years. Nation A has never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prevents signatory nations from distributing the knowledge and capability to build nuclear weapons to other countries. Nation A has in fact already helped other nations develop nuclear weapons capabilitiy and refuses to apologize for it, pardoning those involved and calling them national heroes.
  • Nation B - A well-established democracy. Nation B also has strategic and military alliances with other dictatorships which help it build, among other things, ballistic and cruise missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. Nation B has fought 3 full-scale conventional wars and participated in dozens of "military interventions" in the last 50 years. Nation B has never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prevents signatory nations from distributing the knowledge and capability to build nuclear weapons to other countries; or
  • Nation C - A semi-established democracy. Nation C has been involved in one full-scale war in the last 50 years. Nation C has limited missile capability. Nation C has long supported and financed terrorist organizations which have killed hundreds of Americans and other westerners. Nation C has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has never transferred nuclear technology to other nations.
So which ones would you pick?


Well if you were the United States, Britain, Germany and France, you'd pick nations A and B above. Nation A is of course fun-lovin' Pakistan, Nation B is India and Nation C is Iran.

Both India and Pakistan refuse to sign the NPT. Both India and Pakistan have demonstrated the fact they have nuclear weapons. Both India and Pakistan have missiles capable of firing nuclear warheads at each other, and they've fought 3 wars with each other. They're also engaged in a low-level confrontation in Kashmir, which lies on their border.

Yet despite their flagrant endangerment of world stability, they've both been amply rewarded by the United States and the western allies. On July 8, 2005 the Bush administration signed an agreement to legalize the sale of nuclear technology to India despite the fact that it still refuses to sign the NPT. Of course this is a trade of "only peaceful" nuclear technology and equipment.

Pakistan is still waiting for such an open-ended agreement, but in the meantime it has received millions of dollars in military aid, advanced weaponry such as F-16 fighter jets, and most importantly, was awarded Major Non-Nato Ally status in March 2004. Being declared MNNA means that all sanctions against it were lifted, including those which forbade weapons sales.

Meanwhile of course the rhetoric against Iran continues. Iran has always stated that it is only seeking to pursue civilian nuclear technology, which is permitted by the NPT. You can read the full text here but here is all of Article IV:

1. Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with articles I and II of this Treaty.

2. All the Parties to the Treaty undertake to facilitate, and have the right to participate in, the fullest possible exchange of equipment, materials and scientific and technological information for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Parties to the Treaty in a position to do so shall also cooperate in contributing alone or together with other States or international organizations to the further development of the applications of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, especially in the territories of non-nuclear-weapon States Party to the Treaty, with due consideration for the needs of the developing areas of the world.
I don't think the language could be much clearer - Iran has the right to develop peaceful nuclear technology. If the United States and other countries don't like it, they need to amend the treaty, not blame it.

I should also mention that the NPT requires that member nations let the IAEA conduct inspections, which as far as I'm able to tell, Iran has complied with. In fact, IAEA inspectors are in Iran right now. India and Pakistan, not being signatories, don't have to let the IAEA inspect anything (and they generally don't).

But wait a minute, wasn't it proven that Iran had been developing a nuclear weapon program? So you would think, listening to the rhetoric from certain governments. The IAEA however, which would know, says otherwise:
The UN nuclear watchdog is preparing to publish evidence that Iran is not engaged in a nuclear weapons programme, undermining a warning of possible military action from President George Bush.

However, Iran is about to receive a major boost from the results of a scientific analysis that will prove that the country's authorities were telling the truth when they said they were not developing a nuclear weapon. The discovery of traces of weapons-grade uranium in Iran by UN inspectors in August 2003 set off alarm bells in Western capitals where it was feared that Iran was developing a nuclear weapon under cover of a civil programme. The inspectors took the samples from Iran's uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, which had been concealed from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for 18 years.

But Iran maintained that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, and that the traces must have been contamination from the Pakistani-based black market network of scientist AQ Khan. He is the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb.

However those hopes will be dashed by the revelation about the IAEA analysis of the particles from Pakistan, which will remove any chance of Iran being referred to the UN Security Council. But the IAEA is not closing the book on its investigation of Iran's possible weapons programme. A team of IAEA experts arrived in Iran on Friday to pursue other outstanding issues, but they are unlikely to be resolved by the time Dr ElBaradei reports to the board.
I don't know why the newspaper would say anyone "hoped" the IAEA would prove that Iran had an illegal nuclear weapon program. I guess it would fulfill certain parties' political aspirations but the people of the planet would never hope anyone has a nuclear weapon.

According to what the IAEA has discovered, the weapons-grade uranium came from Pakistan, via their national hero and world terrorist AQ Khan. You know, the guy the CIA protected for years. So why isn't Pakistan being threatened with a censuring motion by the UN Security Council?

The only thing that's saving Iran from a first-class smear job is the honesty and integrity of Mohammed ElBaradei, the head of the IAEA. The Bush administration has done everything under the sun to get rid of this guy, including bugging his offices to try and get "dirt" on him to lobbying for their own stooge to replace him, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer. All to no avail.

The IAEA has a Board of Governors and unfortunately for those who hate Baradei and Iran, the majority of the 35 members are more interested in facts and science. And unless the IAEA finds some kind of new evidence of nuclear weapons development, they're not going to report Iran to the UN Security Council.

Is Iran a cuddly, harmless nation? Of course not. It has lots of flaws, including an atrocious human rights record. But it is absolutely ridiculous to smear Iran for following the letter of the law when two much more dangerous allies regularly flaunt it.

Peace

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The India agreement just reinforces the North Korea lesson and emphasises how rational it is (unfortunately) for Iran to want to develop nuclear weapons. Once you have the weapons, you gain status and negotiating power that you did not have before.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Aug 15th, 2005 at 03:56:33 PM EST
Great one, soj.  I think that Pakistan is well and away the most dangerous nuclear threat on the planet at present:  they have something like 30 nukes spread out in hidden locations, a president who has narrowly escaped assassination 7 or 8 times, and a population, the majority of which supports the Taliban and Al Qaeda, including a lot of the second and third tier leadership in the military and intelligence organization.  

One bullet hits home, and we are in deep trouble.  The fundamentals take over in Pakistan, India goes to high alert, and the rest of the world sits on razor's edge waiting for the slightest miscalculation.

by Wayward Wind on Mon Aug 15th, 2005 at 04:02:17 PM EST
I agree and also think our idiot president has been played bigtime by Musharreff.(whose spelling I know I butchered)

"People never do evil so throughly and happily as when they do it from moral conviction."-Blaise Pascal
by chocolate ink on Mon Aug 15th, 2005 at 04:53:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thougth B was Israel - almost fits - just how they got it is different. Sigh
by PeWi on Mon Aug 15th, 2005 at 04:12:24 PM EST
Good diary and great set-up question soj.  The US ignoring the whole AQ Khan deal is amazing piece of jaw dropping hypocrisy-imagine if he was from Iran-we'd probably already nuked the place.

Right now bush's posturing about Iran is just freaken me out. Given how this administration likes to threaten or refuse to talk to countries(like N.Korea)I find it perfectly reasonable on other countries part to want to build up their military might or try to build nuclear weapons.

Sirocco's two part diaries should be required reading for Americans who want to know exactly what our government is up to and why other countries may just be just a bit cynical due to our hypocrisy regarding which state can or can't have nuclear capabilities.

I was going with C but thought B was the US.

"People never do evil so throughly and happily as when they do it from moral conviction."-Blaise Pascal

by chocolate ink on Mon Aug 15th, 2005 at 04:45:05 PM EST
.

Let's see ...


  • Pakistan ISI and Osama Bin Laden are good guys, because they fight the Soviet Communists in Afghanistan.
  • President Saddam Hussein is a good guy because he fights Iran, killed and gassed a million Iranians.
  • Pakistan, Uzbekistan etc are good guys, because they help us fight and kill Afghans who supported Osama Bin Laden.
  • Isreali PM Sharon is a good guy because he fights Saddam Hussein, so we invade Iraq and kill 100,000+ Iraqis.
  • Interim Gov't of Iraq are good guys, so we'll nuke Isfahan nuclear facilities of new president Ahmadinejad of Iran, a bad guy involved in 1979 hostage taking in Tehran.

Watch for the next neocon soundbite... even Democrats on the Hill have lost all sense and direction.

~~~

Published @ BooMan Tribune ◊ by Oui
Nuclear Spy AQ Khan - CIA/America Refused Arrest in 1975 & 1985
      ~ Cross-posted @dKos by new creve coeur ~

~~~

Amnesia and Gaza Genocide

by Oui on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 02:21:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
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IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM -
Headline Nurtures Fear does not cover Facts
.

Work at Isfahan resumes, after IAEA inspectors installed cameras and other surveillance equipment intended to ensure no nuclear material is diverted. Iranian technicians in white suits and surgical masks rolled out barrels of yellowcake -- raw uranium -- to begin the conversion process.

The facility covers over 150 acres spread along mountains outside the city. Parts of the facility were built in tunnels in the mountains as protection from airstrikes. The facility is also surrounded by radar stations and anti-aircraft batteries.

Isfahan uranium facility   <click pic to enlarge>

Iran learned a lesson from the 1981 Israeli airstrike against Iraq's main nuclear reactor. Iran has spread its facilities over several locations, each with underground installations. The Isfahan facility and the uranium enrichment plant in Natanz house the heart of the country's nuclear program.

The Isfahan Conversion Facility, 255 miles south of Tehran, carries out an early stage of the cycle for developing nuclear fuel, turning yellowcake into UF-6 gas, the feedstock for enrichment.

In the next stage of the process -- which Iran has said it will not resume for the time being -- the gas is fed in centrifuges for enrichment. Uranium enriched to a low level is used to produce nuclear fuel; further enrichment makes it suitable for use in an atomic bomb.

Mohammad Saeedi, deputy head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said work was resuming "stage by stage" at Isfahan, starting with the unit that makes ammonium uranyl carbonate, or AUC, a component in the conversion process.

FRONTLINE/World reporter Paul Kenyon

Published @ BooMan Tribune ◊ by Oui
Nuclear Spy AQ Khan - CIA/America Refused Arrest in 1975 & 1985
      ~ Cross-posted @dKos by new creve coeur ~

~~~

Amnesia and Gaza Genocide

by Oui on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 02:12:58 AM EST
You can find realpolitik arguments to support Musharraf's Pakistan - any alternative would be worse, better a dictator than the islmaic fundamentalists, their bombs are balanced out by India's and they have an incentive to maintain some stability there.

What is inconsistent is the policy viz. Iraq and Iran, especially Iran. It seems that US policy viz. these two countries is led by a combination of two things:

  • an unhealthy focus on the Israeli point of view to the exclusivitiy of others and

  • a petty desire for revenge. The 1979 hostage crisis (even more so than the loss of a critical ally in the region) is still seen as a humiliation by the US that needs to be "righted" in a way that leaves no ambiguity.

These two factors prevent Bushco from taking an objective look at things and to be able to see that Iranian nuclear energy, and even an Iranian nuclear bomb, are not such "end of times" things, at least no more than Pakistan's.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 03:19:39 AM EST
You can find realpolitik arguments to support Musharraf's Pakistan -

But, as it is often with realpolitik, the unethical but pragamatic decision for today will turn the unethical and unpragmatic decision for tomorrow. (Chirac-led France also made that experience, repeatedly, in the last five years in Côte d'Ivoire - recognising Gbago's victory in Gueï's sham elections was the long forgotten first bad decision.)

any alternative would be worse, better a dictator than the islmaic fundamentalists,

I think Western support for Musharraf only strenghtens this worse alternative, and makes its eventual takeover more likely. (As happened in - well - Iran.)

their bombs are balanced out by India's

Or, enhanced by India's, should new insane Pakistani leaders start a nuclear war. (BTW, India has its mad nationalists too, so the situation is instable on the other side, too.)

and they have an incentive to maintain some stability there.

I don't understand this part. (Especially in light of the Khan network.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 04:49:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I agree with you about the realpolitik, and as it were, I alsohave argued that we should let the islamic fundamentalists take power everywhere - that's the only way to vaccinate populations against them, as Iran shows (except when we interfere).

One simple rule: any terrorist attack(or worse, of course) traced back to the country is treated asan act of war

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 05:18:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry 'bout that...

Funny, I usually detect your fine sarcasm better than others, but can miss the deeper levels of your message when you're serious :-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 05:33:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
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<click pic to enlarge>

Dimona is located in the southern Negev desert  

IAEA - ElBaradei asks Israel to go nuclear-free

VIENNA (BBC News) June 27, 2004 -- The head of the UN's nuclear watchdog, Mohamed ElBaradei, says Israel should start discussions on ridding the Middle East of nuclear weapons. Such dialogue would help reduce frustration in the region about "what is seen to be a widespread imbalance".

Mr ElBaradei said he would like Israel, along with other Middle East countries, to open up nuclear facilities to inspections by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel has a policy of "strategic ambiguity" - neither admitting nor denying it has nuclear weapons - but analysts believe it has more than 100 nuclear weapons.

Its Arab neighbours have frequently accused the international community of double standards for requiring them to be free of nuclear weapons while doing little, in their eyes, about Israel. Mr ElBaradei said it was "not sustainable in any region or even globally to have some [people] rely on nuclear weapons and others being told they should not have nuclear weapons".  

Aug. 11, 2005 -- The BBC's striking revelations regarding the secretive and disconcerting British role in making an Israeli nuclear bomb possible, deserves more than a quick pause and a few dozen news reports. It obliges a thorough investigation coupled with a complete reversal in the double standard that views Israel's fully-fledged nuclear capabilities as a trivial concern.

The BBC program, Newsnight, broadcast on August 3, confirmed that Britain was in fact the original source of heavy water, the crucial ingredient that allowed Israel to transform its generic nuclear reactor in Dimona in the Negev Desert - initially developed with French help - into a proficient nuclear manufacturing plant.

It was always assumed, following the dramatic disclosures made by former Dimona technician, Mordechai Vanunu to the British Sunday Times in 1986, that the 20 tons of heavy water originated from Norway. Norway chose complete silence regarding the nature of the deal.

Independent Media TV

.
Mordechai Vanunu


<click pic for site Free Vanunu>    

~~~

Published @ BooMan Tribune ◊ by Oui
Nuclear Spy AQ Khan - CIA/America Refused Arrest in 1975 & 1985
      ~ Cross-posted @dKos by new creve coeur ~

~~~

Amnesia and Gaza Genocide

by Oui on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 04:21:15 AM EST
and I thought the Europeans were anti-Israeli, or worse, antisemites?!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 05:09:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
.
Content of speeches determined to win elections!

Schroeder - Sharon - Netanyahu

Future US Foreign Policy ◊  An Insight From Men of Power
G. Gordon Liddy Interviews Bibi Netanyahu [WMP]
22 October 2001 -- The G Man in Israel

Deal Sharon made with Bush is to pull out of Gaza, in return the Israelis will remain in East Jerusalem and bleed the local Palestinians to move out. The large settlements near Jerusalem on the West Bank will be enlarged and incorporated in Israel.

The former PM Netanyahu is a chickenhawk, political tactics for a power grab, he needs the extreme right religious parties in the future, so the basta** resigns when all policies have been set for withdrawal from Gaza.

It was Bibi who launched an hate attack and incitement to violence in 1994 which led to the assassination of Israeli PM Rabin, partner in peace with Clinton and Arafat. The chickenhawk is not worthy to be mentioned in same breath with his brother.

~~~

Amnesia and Gaza Genocide

by Oui on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 06:15:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Paul Craig Roberts, a former Reagan advisor, wrote a column yesterday that criticized the Bush administration for agreeing to sell nuclear technology to China.  Commenting on the possibility that the US would attack Iran for trying to acquire the same technology, he wrote -
That would be the third Islamic country the United States would have attacked in as many years. All hell would break loose. Meanwhile, the chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has announced that the commission will approve Westinghouse's sale of two nuclear reactors to China.

. . .

The moronic Bush administration is all concerned about weapons of mass destruction where they aren't, not where they are. Why in the world is the Bush administration using up the U.S. military and its weapons systems in Iraq, a country that was no threat whatsoever to the United States, while aiding and abetting China's rapidly growing economic and military power?

by corncam on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 10:23:43 AM EST


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