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Countdown Germany: Day -7

by DoDo Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 02:00:00 PM EST

Jumping in for the regular German crew, with just one news: in two of the last four polls published, the combined conservative-(market-)liberal poll number has fallen back to the critical level where even the slight non-proportional slant of the German mixed election system (worth about 2%) won't give them majority in parliament.

Both the poll published by the generally neutral Infratest-Dimap last Friday and the one published by the CDU-close Emnid yesterday put CDU/CSU+FDP at 47.5%, while the percentage points of the other three, leftist future Parliament members SPD, Greens and Left Party combine to 49.5%.

(The also neutral Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has a leftist lead of only 48%:49%, the CDU-close Allensbach has 48.5%:48.8%.)

Update [2005-9-12 7:21:44 by DoDo]:

Today Forsa, the polling institute associated with SPD, released its latest:

CDU/CSU 42% (+-0)
SPD 35% (+1)
Greens 7% (+-0)
FDP 6% (+/-0)
Left Party 7% (-1%)

Hence the two blocks unchanged for this institute:
SPD+Greens+Left Party 49%

Meanwhile, on Saturday, the Bundestagswahl 2005 site updated its prediction for direct mandates:

strong/light color: certain/weak lead
blue: CDU/CSU lead
red: SPD lead
green: Greens lead (look at central district of Berlin)
purple: Left Party lead (look at East Berlin)

On the main page, there is the seat distribution prediction based on the above map, with the so-called overhang mandates in parantheses:

SPD 214 (4)
CDU/CSU 258 (5)
Greens 43
FDP 43
Left P. 49

Note that the non-PR advantage of the right, i.e. that in the overhang mandates, melted to just one seat.

Overhang mandate:
In the German system, each state has a certain number of election districts, but twice as many seats to be distributed among parties. Normally, the latter is done according to votes on party lists. That is, for example, if a party wins 40% of the vote and 2 direct mandates of five in a state with 10 seats, two more people drawn from the party list will enter parliament. However, when a party wins more direct mandates than its share in the list vote, the Parliament increases accordingly and the difference is called overhang mandate. I.e., if say a party wins all 5 direct mandates with 40% of the vote in a state with 10 seats to fill, there is one overhang.

Oh good. I really don't need an economically right-wing government in Germany.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 06:46:01 AM EST
LOL, neither do I!

That comment reminded me of last year, when the US elections were followed as it they were everyone's domestic affairs - now at Eurotrib, the German elections seem to play a similar role.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 07:25:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We've go to get our fix somewhere!

But this is domestic for me. The political landscape in Germany affects the laws passed at EU level which affects me.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 10:47:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
well, the world is your oyster.

I think, that is a positive development, we are concerned world citizens, I wish we would have more info to discuss on Japan here f.e as well and all the other elections.

Important stuff!

by PeWi on Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 09:04:32 AM EST

I ADORE electoral maps and would have never have found this one. It's been a long day today, but the map was a great treat. Thanks.

And my thanks extend to the good people of Germany. So good you all to put a little drama in this electoral contest for us, electoral junkies.

by gradinski chai on Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 01:20:29 PM EST
The hat-tip goes further to Saturday, who gave me the link to that site!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 02:37:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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