Thu Sep 15th, 2005 at 06:31:39 AM EST
Coalitions, no majorities, more votes? This is getting intriguing! From the diaries ~ whataboutbob
This year, the frontiers of election and constitutional law are being pushed like never before. Today, the Leipziger Volkszeitung reported plans within the CDU to head directly for new elections again after the September 18 elections. The plan acknowledges the possibility that CDU/CSU and FDP will not have a majority, and neither will SPD/Greens. Which is probable indeed. FDP has consequently ruled out any cooparation with red/green, and Merkel has become ever clearer about not going into a grand coalition.
The new plan is supposed to evade a grand coalition. It is supposed to work as follows: After the election, the new Bundestag has to choose the chancellor. Given that Schröder will not be supported by the Left Party, there will be no absolute majority for any candidate in the first two ballots. But in the third ballot, relative majority will be sufficient. That means, given that CDU stays in first place (probable), Merkel will be elected. After that, the Federal President (Bundespräsident) has seven days to decide on the governability of the new coalition. If his evaluation of the situation is negative (assumable, since there will be neither a majority nor a toleration-scenario), he can dissolve the Bundestag and call new elections again.
What makes this so attractive for Merkel, is the chance that Schröder, ripped of his chancellorship, will not play a major role within SDP any more. In new elections without Schröder, she seems to see a better chance for winning the elections.
Which is, by the way, the biggest compliment ever for Schröder's campaigning qualities.
More to come today or tomorrow.