http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/9/18/125722/144

should we bump it a bit?

<looks around>

hallo

anybody here

...

hallo(-:

Interesting to note is that while the party heads are publicly asserting who they would not under any circumstances enter into a coalition with, the second tier are saying things like, "It is our duty to the voters to talk to all other parties and make an effort to carry on the government of the country." The only two exceptions to this pattern are the FDP and the Left. Traffic lights or Jamaica?

Another option is a minority government (elected by a plurality) that calls a new election.

Anyway you slice it, Angie seems to be the big loser tonight. I'm curious to see when those Christian Democratic knives will come out.

And I'm out of here for 2 weeks starting tomorrow morning. See you all in October!

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

Not that I can read German, but I can get enough of an idea...

SPD  34,2/222
CDU  35,2/224
GRE   8,1/50
FDP   9,9/62
LEF   8,6/54

FDP is below 10!!!

SPD lost some ground in comparison to the projections before. But that does not change the basic facts.

"We gained more votes than the Union lost."

Meaning: That many of our votes are "borrowed" from the CDU/CSU, will not prevent us from using them for a coalition with SPD and Greens.

If the SPD gets mosts seats, they can claim to be the biggest party, and thus have a right to provide the kanzler in a grand coalition. If the CDU/CSU gets most seats, this question is open: they can claim they are the biggest, but Merkel's position has been weakened a lot.

I wonder how the election result will influence the people in Dresden, especially if they know they could piush the SPD to have the most seats. My first thought is that, since Schroeder is more popular than Merkel as a person, the voters there might want him as a kanzler in a grand coalition rather than Merkel, and would be inclined to go for the SPD.

I also understand that the FDP has said they wouldn't take part in an Ampel/Jamaica coalition, but they probably will reverse that statement..

+++ Germans Want a Grand Coalition +++

(10:40 p.m.) Forty-two percent of Germans believe that a grand coalition between left and right -- the SPD and the CDU -- would be "best for Germany". That's according to the results of a poll conducted by ARD. Another 20 percent favor a so-called "Jamaica Coalition," consisting of the (black) CDU, (yellow, business-friendly) FDP, and the Green Party. Eighteen percent are in favor of a so-called "stoplight coalition" of the (red) SPD, (yellow) FDP, and Greens.

21:37 UTC
Does Dresden Decide?
The head of Germany's Emnid polling organization has predicted that a provisional final result will not differ greatly from current predictions, but the winner could still remain undecided until a late election in the eastern German city of Dresden takes place on Oct. 2.
Under Germany's complicated system of calculating
parliamentary seats, Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats could yet win more seats in parliament than the opposition Christian Democrats, despite receiving fewer votes overall.
With the so-called overhang seats, the SPD and CDU both have 222 seats. The 219,000 registered voters in Dresden could in the end be the tie-breaker.

20:40 UTC
222 Seats for SPD and CDU
According to a prediction by the Forsa opinion institute, a parliamentary parity between SPD and CDU is quite possible with both parties having 222 seats. In terms of votes, Forsa put the CDU ahead with 35.0 percent and the SPD with 34.0. The FDP received 10.0 percent and the Greens 8.2 percent. The Left Party came in with 8.5 percent.

http://www9.dw-world.de/ticker/index.php?lang=en

One of the two correspondents said that in comparison to the US the elections in Germany are really just about economics and none of the issues that divide the US, like gun control, death penalty, abortion rights, gay rights are of any importance in German elections, because those issues have been mostly settled in Germany. So the election is just about taxes, pensions, economics etc.

Nevertheless the votes are highly spread out between several third parties aside from being equally divided between the two Volksparteien CDU and SPD.

One wonders why in Germany we have much more and clearer ideological diversity in the parties, but so much fewer social, cultural and ideologically relevant issues we really would have to vote on whereas one doesn't have any diverse party system ideologically speaking in the US but tons of diverse and divisive cultural and social issues Americans vote on with a passion. Shouldn't the US have more diverse parties, as they have much more divisive issues they vote on?

CDU: 35.2
SPD: 34.2
Greens: 8.1
FDP: 9.8
Left Party 8.7

In terms of Bundestag seats:

CDU: 225
SPD: 221
FDP: 61
Left Party: 54
Greens: 51

http://www9.dw-world.de/ticker/index.php?lang=en

yeh, that was really too scary.

with almost no exception, those that went CDU had a right wing vote of between 3.5 and 7%

WHY?

they lost 740.000 voters. due to low voter turnout, they gained more from SPD and Greens but lost 1.25 million to the FDP.

I am not sure if you are still about, but according to the Spiegel Schroeder insists that it is parties and not Bundestagsfraktionen that lead the coalition talks:
"Kanzler Gerhard Schröder beharrte darauf, dass Parteien die Koalitionsverhandlungen führen, CDU und CSU also getrennt betrachtet werden müssten."

sooooo

Now I know that the national vote total is not the way this election is decided. But neither is it the way we decide our presidential elections, yet we display national vote totals all the time.  What gives? Why are we still seeing (what appear to be modified) exit poll numbers?

The CDU/CSU won Baden-Württemberg, Bayern, and Sachsen.

I can't find the preliminary official result of Rheinland-Pfalz (it could have gone either way, but I predict it narrowly went SPD).

But you can see that if you go state by state, the SPD did very well. It's kinda ludicrous to think the CDU wants to lead the country, having won a majority in only three states.

 

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/bundestagswahl2005/onlineatlas/btwClientKarte.htm

all the results you want to know.

Thanks