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This weekend's close elections

by whataboutbob Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 12:29:55 PM EST

A lot of discussion about this topic has already gone on in various thread's here over the weekend, but it is interesting that there have been two real close elections in New Zealand and Germany. Albeit, New Zealand and Germany both have proportional-type elections, not "first past the post", winner take all elections. So perhaps we can use this as an open thread to discuss this trend here, and what this might mean.

Personally, I would prefer that there have to be coalitions, rather than potentially have 49.9% of the people not be represented at all, and wish the US would move to a proportional representative style.

And what will it take to get some of the far Left groups to start cooperating more with some of the more middle-Left groups (like in France), so we could actually have governments that are more progressive?


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In addition, Afghanistan had (is having?) an election this weekend too:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4258304.stm

Turn-out is down 20% from the last one...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 12:37:05 PM EST
...although, now that I read this article again, there was a big turnout of women voters in some areas...so that could be interesting: low turnout, with high women's turnout!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 12:39:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Personally, I would prefer that there have to be coalitions, rather than potentially have 49.9% of the people not be represented at all,...

It can even get worse!
The "49.9%" is only true in a real two party system.
Look at the British elections this year. The Labour party got 55% of the seats with only 35% of the votes.

http://www.psr.keele.ac.uk/area/uk/uktable.htm

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 12:41:40 PM EST
Bill Clinton got elected with only about 43% of the vote. This didn't lead to a coalition government, because we elect the President directly.

In Congress there are only two parties, but the President might be from the party that is a minority in Congress. That seems to be the case about half the time...

by asdf on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 02:32:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US president is elected by the electoral college, not direct popular vote.

Most of the time Congress is in the hands of the opposition. The present situation with both branches of Congress and the White House in Republican hands is rare. Throw in the Supreme Court and the Media, and just hope it's a fleeting moment.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 06:17:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two part comment.

First PR vs. single member.  Both systems have their advantages and disadvantages as to democratic legitimacy.  In the former you get a better representation of the parties the voters want and you don't get situations where multiple parties give you winners with well under 50% of the vote.  However, all is not perfect in PR. PR tends to create coalition governments where small but crucial minority parties get outsized power and influence since the big parties have to get their support - classic examples are the FDP in Germany and the religious parties in Israel. The alternative is a grand coalition type situation like you currently have in Israel and might well have in Germany.  Furthermore, a PR system gives a huge amount of power to the unelected internal party leadership.  It is very dangerous to go against your party leaders in a PR system since they can make sure you will lose your seat in the next election, regardless of what the voters might think of your actions.  

As to getting some of the far left groups to start cooperating with the moderates - not realistic. The two groups strongly dislike each other, and for good reason.  People like myself often find the mainstream right preferable to the extreme left.  The extreme left on the other hand has made it clear it prefers allowing the right to win rather than seeing social liberals in power.  

But, just for the record, this is what it would take for me in Germany. A transformation of the PDS so that the majority of its functionaries and activists are no longer ex-SED - in other words, get rid of most of the people currently in it. In the West, get rid of Lafontaine and anybody else who is basically NPD lite.

In France - get rid of people who think that full blown socialism needs to be established, and anyone who likes the idea of a sudden radical transformation of society - the grand soir types. Get rid of the xenophobia.  

by MarekNYC on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 01:38:04 PM EST
far left progressive policies, that used to be the domain of the Greens, before the Realo's overtook the Fundies.

So you could argue with Juergen Trittin is/was in power for the last couple of years.

They were just not socially radical and politically stron enough

by PeWi on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 02:24:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The power of internals depends on the form of PR: the Irish use multi-seat constituencies with no lists, so each local area elects 4 or 5 representatives directly.

Of course, this way you get independents being elected on local issues who then proceed to have disproportionate power.

Democracy: the worst system of governance except for all the rest.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 02:49:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I see that is your second comment in which you say that Lafontaine is "NPD lite". I have not followed the whole circumstances that lead to the split from the SPD and the creation of the Linkspartei with PDS, but can you back up your claim that he is "NPD lite" with a link or any article that would shed some light on it?

Thanks.

by mimi on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 04:08:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
that lead to the split ... should read that has lead to the split.
by mimi on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 04:08:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oskar Haider
Or why I find Lafontaine sickening.
by MarekNYC on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 04:30:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow, thanks. That was an even better eye-opener than the Spiegel report I found.

Laws regarding citizenship and nationality are based on ethnicity in Germany, and thus immigration policies become racist, too. Nevertheless, if you look how much even immigrants, who are "ethnically correct Germans, i.e. "Auslandsdeutsche" with German anchestors like "Russian" Germans, are discriminated against in Germany today, rhetoric used by Lafontaine is unforgivable. I got a very distinct taste of that kind of resentments against even the "true white German-anchestry immigrants" on my last two trips to Germany in my hometown, so it's not just racist against the non-white immigrants, it's against immigrants, plain and simple. I wonder how LaFontaine could have sunken to deeply so cheaply. Originally he might just have been concerned with true economic issues. Oh well, here goes the neighborhood.

by mimi on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 05:15:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ok, I read your comment in DoDo's diary. I just would like to get more information about it.
by mimi on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 04:25:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ok, now I have found what you were referring to with regards to Oskar Lafontaine. For all the other Americans, who are interested to know more about Oskar, the narcissist and Gysi, the communist and their combined lust for power, this this article gives you the picture.
by mimi on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 04:38:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1.   PR tends to create coalition governments where small but crucial minority parties get outsized power and influence since the big parties have to get their support - classic examples are the FDP in Germany and the religious parties in Israel.

Good observation.  And a small religious party in Israel which got 3% of the vote and has 1-2 Parliament members can walk away and cause a collapse of the government. It causes instability.

2. Furthermore, a PR system gives a huge amount of power to the unelected internal party leadership.
Party officials who get to do backroom deals have disproportionate amount of power.

3.  Your economic or social or political program gets watered down, because you have to compromise, give-and-take.  The alternative is you let the other guy implement his policies and if they don't work, you win the next election and get your shot at it.

by ilg37c on Tue Sep 20th, 2005 at 12:01:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
PR tends to create coalition governments where small but crucial minority parties get outsized power and influence since the big parties have to get their support

Not quite so much in New Zealand.  Yes, our first election under PR led to a populist anti-immigrant party playing the two main parties off against one another - but the backlash against that sort of behaviour almost destroyed them.  Since then, our minor parties have been a lot more reasonable in their expectations.

Of course, we're only on our 4th PR election, and we're still really getting used to it.

Furthermore, a PR system gives a huge amount of power to the unelected internal party leadership.

This IMHO is the really big flaw, as it utterly stifles internal dissent.  Imagine Tony Blair under MMP; he wouldn't have to worry about any backbench rebellions, because he'd simply ensure that the list was packed with his supporters.

In NZ we have a further criticism: that by virtually guaranteeing coalition government, PR stops parties from "getting things done" and enacting "necessary" reforms.  This is voiced almost solely by relics from the neo-liberal era, who used FPP's "elected dictatorship" to ram change through without consultation (or even announcing that that was what their party stood for at election time), and who still haven't got the message that that's precisely why we wanted it in the first place.

Idiot/Savant
No Right Turn - New Zealand's liberal blog

by IdiotSavant on Tue Sep 20th, 2005 at 08:29:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would suggest that PR tends to fragment the government, while FPTP tends to move everybody to the center.

For example, there has never been a stable third party in the U.S. And the two parties are quite close to each other on most issues--noise on blogs and editorial pages notwithstanding. Perhaps that's because you can poll the electorate and figure out what positions will win the most votes, and both parties do the same polls and get the same results. So the parties split at a point in the center that represents the average of what people think, and as voter opinions change over time that center point changes.

In PR systems, since each small party can get a handful of votes in government, the incentive is to have lots of parties. So after the election, you have this secondary scrambling around that can bring together complete misfits as coalition partners. This system reduces the control of the voting public, because no matter how you vote, the government will in the end be set up by a back room agreement between coalition party big shots.

It seems to me that the former is perhaps better, because at least the voters have a direct say in which philosophy will win--by moving that center point one way or the other.

by asdf on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 02:25:28 PM EST
The downfall of FPTP is that when there are only 2 viable parties. Then, sooner or later, as happened in the US and UK, the parties develop a consensus which shifts the so-caled "centre" and leaves much of the electorate not only unrepresented, but often actively exploited. The situation can resolve itself (c.f. the decline of the Liberals and rise of Labour in the early 20th Century UK) but it tends to be a hard and damaging road, often requiring outside disasters to make it happen.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 02:46:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They're both broken. I happen to prefer PR personally, because that's what I'm used to.

Oh, and if the Brits used PR the Tories would never be in government, which sounds like a recommendation to me. I could live with Lib Dem - Labour coalitions.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 02:46:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1.  The substitute for the PR is that there are competing ideologies within each party, trying to sway the party to one or another direction.

(a) The liberals generally dominate the Dem Party, but there are centrist who so far have been unsuccessful in taking the power away;
(b) The conservatives generally dominate the Rep Party, but there are centrist who so far have been unsuccessful in taking the power away;

2.  (a) Some libertarians abandon the Libertarian Party and join the Republicans to change the party

(b) Some Greens abandon the Green party and join the Democrats to change the party

3.  Or if they stay in the party, the Lib or the Green swing the results in close elections.

So there are different ways to influence the politics, but its much harder for the small parties in the USA than in Europe.  

Winner-takes-all system is prohibitive in that respect.

4.  There is also a problem of gerrymandering  which is another topic, but very important in the US politics. For example, in 2004, none of the seats in the California congressional (federal), and California State Senate and California State Assembly changed hands.  The Dems and the Rep got together in a backroom deal and designed their own safe districts, and each party gets elected in its own safe seat without any competition.  Sad. Travesty. Tragic. Comical.

by ilg37c on Tue Sep 20th, 2005 at 12:12:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps you could explain how you identify the current Republican Party in Congress and the White House as "the center"?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 03:04:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the center from the viewpoint of the American voting public. For whatever reason, we split almost exactly 50:50 in both of the last two elections--as you know.

Also note that despite the desire of some of us for a truly liberal Democratic party, the fact is that the Dems don't support a whole range of things that are supported by conservatives in other countries, like Canada. Stuff like single payer health, strong environmental policies (remember Kyoto was rejected 99:1 in the Senate), secular politics, etc., that are routine in Europe are not even under consideration here. America is simply not on the same page as Europe in many ways: What's the "center" here is off in the weeds in Europe, and vice versa.

by asdf on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 03:50:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's so great about "the center"?

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 02:34:45 PM EST
Well, one thing is that it's where most people are "ok" even if not completely happy. What's so great about a system where you have two giant parties split 45:45, handing control of government to a radical party that just happens to have enough votes to carry control?
by asdf on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 03:55:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which system is that?

No party with 45% of the vote is going to "hand over control" to a lesser party (in your example, maximum 10%) with which it may form a coalition.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 04:06:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are all sorts of options there: if the radical party is onerous enough there may be agreements made to work around the problem. Generally a minority government. Not stable for a long time, but there you go.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 04:11:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Egon Bahr suggested that.
by mimi on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 04:17:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
to check in and say that y'all are doing a great job covering the German elections.  Bravo.
by BooMan on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 03:45:12 PM EST
FPTP parliamentary style is best imho if it creates a government that can act quickly and change things. In the modern world I feel this is necessary. Gridlock, cumbersome bickering coalitions, and hamstrung governments are just too slow in what is an increasingly rapidly changing world.  
by observer393 on Tue Sep 20th, 2005 at 01:19:38 AM EST
I've spent a large chunk of my life living through exactly that "necessary" rapid change - and I can assure you that it's not fun.  In fact, people here were so pissed off by the experience of repeated betrayals by political parties who stood on one platform, then delivered another, or who enacted grossly unpopular policies over the heads of the electorate literlaly in the dead of night, that we changed our electoral system to ensure it could never happen again.

Idiot/Savant
No Right Turn - New Zealand's liberal blog

by IdiotSavant on Tue Sep 20th, 2005 at 08:36:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This has been a good thread. Hope it keeps going a while.

To those who see the advantage of FPTP as promoting rapid change and decisive governance (an argument only relevant to parliamentary systems, and not to the US with its separation of powers) I would ask two things:

  1. Is it good to get rapid change that has been endorsed by much less than 50% of the electorate? Perhaps we should consider major changes in the policy realm that are endorsed by 40-some percent (or even less) as less than desirable.

  2. Can't a single-party government just as easily resist needed change as promote it? The Muldoon government in New Zealand before 1984 is a good example. It ignored the swelling deficits and inefficiencies in the economy, letting the crisis worsen, and it had twice been outvoted by Labour. It did not even represent a plurality of the NZ electorate.

To those who worry about small parties holding too much power under PR, I don't see it. For that to happen, it seems you need (1) the party in question to have a really secure constituency with narrow demands and be (2) utterly unprincipled in who it makes coalitions with. Some of the small religious parties in Israel (where the threshold is very low) might be examples.

But in most multiparty systems--and I think this applies to Germany and New Zealand, as well as Norway (which also just had a very close election)--even the little parties have constituencies that are more fluid at the same time that they have principled policy stances. If such a party demands too much it risks losing voters, possibly to one of the bigger parties, or another small party that is not seen as trying to hold everyone else "hostage."

And if there is only one major party or bloc that the small party can credibly make a coalition with, then it is much more constrained in what it can demand in exchange for its support. Otherwise it risks a very bad outcome for its voters: the seating of a government from the other side.

by Moosa Man on Tue Sep 20th, 2005 at 01:13:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there an example of a FPTP parliamentary system where there are many small parties? Or is the proliferation of minority parties entirely the result of the PR system?

If there are no obvious counterexamples, I might argue that an advantage of the few-parties-FPTP system is that the party platform is made public in advance of the election, so voters know what they are voting for. In contrast, in the many-partis-FP system the coalition is not decided until after the election, so you don't know what you're voting for.

A current example would be if the German Greens were to join a coalition with the CDU on the right. Would Green voters have gone for the CDU if they didn't have the Green option? Or are they a more natural SPD partner...

by asdf on Tue Sep 20th, 2005 at 01:32:50 PM EST
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