Maybe its because I've been working on the computer all day, so missed it in your article...but what are their explanations for being ...so wrong???

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

Something I found since at SPIEGEL ONLINE: in a new poll, more than two thirds of voters are dissatisfied with the election result.

Somewhat surprisingly, FDP voters are in the lead with 88%. CDU/CSU voters follow with 81%, 69% of Left party and 68% of Green voters follow, and 'a majority' of SPD voters are last.

On the other hand, regarding my nightmare scenario, in another poll a mere 25% would support repeated elections and 73% oppose, I guess that wouldn't bode well for the CDU/CSU if they pursue a new elections tactic too openly.

As mentioned in other threads, 33% would favor a Grand Coalition, 26% a 'Jamaica coalition' with Greens, FDP and CDU/CSU, less than 20% favore an 'Ampelcoalition' with SPD, Greens and FDP, and a mere 9% a red-red-green coalition.

In there is a Grand Coalition, half want Schröder as chancellor, only 43% want Merkel.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

Incorrect sampling and weighting looks like it could explain a lot of this.  With so many parties and so much regional diversity, it is probably a lot harder in Germany than in the US, and mistakes in weighting probably become more obvious (in the biparty US, mistakes in estimating Republican allegiance automatically put people in the Democratic column, and vice-versa, creating a better prospect that mistakes on both sides cancel each other out; in Germany, there are a lot more mistakes one could make that do not necessarily offset).

Ambivalence on the right could also explain some of it -- was turnout low in right-wing strongholds?  Are there time-frame issues, too (i.e., when were the polls taken)?

National Public Radio in the US the other day claimed there had been a big swing away from the CDU in the last few weeks due to Hurricane Katrina -- it supposedly enabled the left to portray Merkel as a know-nothing, antigovernment Bushite who would leave Germany similarly vulnerable to disaster...

I added this to the nightmare scenario thread as an update too, but this bit of Schadenfreude worth to repeat: Guido Westerwelle, the current leader of the FDP (who shares much of the blame for turning the FDP an unserious neoliberal party), got only 8.7% in Bonn - 5.5% less than in 2002, and 5% less than list votes for his party in Bonn!...

I admit it is not at all likely, but would be funny if a traffic lights coalition would be formed after a decapitation of the FDP...

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

that one-third of the electorate remained undecided well into election week? I imagine what pollsters do is ignore the undecideds and extrapolate from those respondents that do state a preference. This of course inevitably introduces a special kind of error - respondents that have a preference cannot be representative of those that don't. In a "normal" election, that error can be neglected; in the present case, it could not. To make my point as clear as possible: suppose you saw before the election a poll that said (phantasy numbers, just trying to simplify):

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD 30%
Linke 10%
FDP 10%
Greens 10%

But the data this poll was supposed to reflect would have really looked more like this:

CDU/CSU 28%
SPD 21%
Linke 7%
FDP 7%
Greens 7%
UNDECIDED 30%

And this is exactly what the pollsters should have published.

One more point: I'm highly sceptical of the theory that the massive swing away from the Union was mostly caused by loyal CDU/CSU voters who went for the FDP in order to prevent a grand coalition. First off, this doesn't make too much sense. The only way "lending" votes to the FDP could have helped prevent a big coalition was if the FDP was in danger of falling short of the 5% threshold. But that danger was never apparent in the polls! Secondly, only half of the votes the Union lost actually went to the FDP. Infratest-Dimap projects that the CDU/CSU lost 1,110,000 voters to the FDP and a combined 1,100,000 votes to the Linke, "others" (i.e., mostly, Neo-Nazis), and above all to non-voters. In my opinion, what happened here was quite clearly a no-confidence vote against Merkel.

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)

there's the around 1% whom they counted for the CDU/CSU instead of the far right, probably a result of not offering the brownies as a choice to the polled people

As far as I know, right wing parties are offered as a choice in the polling interviews. But it is still hard to get the numbers of NPD et al. correctly: The pressure of social acceptability (in German social and media science: "soziale Gewünschtheit") causes many right wing voters to hide their real party preference. Because rightist voters, as long as they do not belong to the extremist core, can not afford to become socially stigmated. But normally, pollsters should have a formula for that.