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A Nuclear Lobby Lie

by DoDo Fri Sep 23rd, 2005 at 07:55:06 AM EST

Sorry Jérôme, but to reduce the impact, this is about a lie peddled by the German nuclear lobby. (It appeared in discussion in this thread.)

The claim: large electricity imports from France prove that phasing out nuclear was a bad decision for Germany and regeneratives won't be a good replacement.

The truth: selective sampling and blatant out-of-context quoting of data. Here is the export/import map of Germany for 2004, the four points to make follow below the fold:


Graph from a VDEW (German electricity industry association) article which due to a nasty script it would be difficult to link to. Note that:

  1. the 15.5 TWh imports from France, while more than third of imports, is just 2.5% of the total German production (about 600 TWh);

  2. according to VDEW, most of that transitted Germany to third countries (the Netherlands and Italy), and wasn't destined for German consumers;

  3. Germany's total export/import balance isn't considered. That balance is positive! In 2003, a total of 53.7 TWh was exported, and 45.7 TWh imported, giving net exports of 8.0 TWh; in 2004, it was 7.3 TWh net exports.

  4. Denmark's total electricity export/import balance is positive too - even tough they have a much higher ratio of wind and zero nuclear.

Furthermore, consider that just as electricity from nuclear energy can be exported, so can that from renewables. Transfers between countries are one of the possible solutions to reduce the impact of wind(/sun/wave) intermittance. (The downsize is greater losses in transmission, but those aren't that dramatic either.)

Display:
Such extremely disingenious statistical wizardy and spin is quite common in the propaganda of various traditional energy lobbies when it comes to the new rivals. Especially in Germany. I have a neat list of them; and would welcome others posting about more of these.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Sep 23rd, 2005 at 08:00:17 AM EST
Dodo. I am planning a new diary on nuclear and wind. I am reallly worried that all these diaries on energy turn into a nuclear is bad / no wind, is not so good debate that ends up favoring only coal or gas.

My take is simple: the best energy source are, in order:

  • conservation / savings
  • renewables
  • nuclear
  • hydrocarbons.

(for practical purposes, there is very little hydro that can be added in the Western world, so i have neglected that)

The fact is, we don't start from scratch, so we need to take into account what we already have, and there are some technical constraints that do play as well (base load needs, peaking capacity, short term reactivity, etc...), which means that we won't do with some of the worst sources immediately.

But wind fans and nuclear fans should attack coal all the time instead of attacking each other so much.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Sep 23rd, 2005 at 02:32:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tell that to the British and German nuclear lobbies :-)

The CDU is in bed with the latter, and it looks like the first new law by the new North Rhine-Westphalia state government (the one whose election triggered Germany's early federal elections) will be the one ending wind power construction by way of restrictive zoning laws. That's the position I'm arguing from...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Sep 23rd, 2005 at 05:37:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't understand why (most of) the nuclear lobby is anti-wind. Wind does not threaten nuclear, quite the opposite - as there is a need for base load in any case, the competition is coal or gas, not wind (except in the extreme case of France where wind, which is intermittent base load, would indeed reduce nuclear's overall share).

Areva, the French nuclear group, is strongly pro-wind.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Sep 23rd, 2005 at 06:33:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
After church this morning, we had a long discussion about a proposed windfarm just up the road from our village. 117 turbines, 300 feet high - and as my pro-nuclear neighbour stated, they will be an eyesore.  (even though he will not be able to see them, till he stands in front of them)
In the discussion with him I learned a new term Nimby (not in my back yard -ism) Very true.

But the opposition between Nuclear and Wind was made as well, I think it is as much a fight between a "scientific" and a "romantic" attitude to nature. which in a way is funny. because those that are against windfarms often say they are against them for aesthetic reasons. (since most of the other reasons are rubbish anyway.)

If he were able to see windfarms as a crop like forrest and fields, but I only spoke to my wife afterwards (who always has the better arguments anyway) so I could not use this in the conversation with him. next time...

Her point, was that the "natural" countryside is an industrially exploited artificial environment where ever you are. Even in areas of outstanding beauty, or where "nature" can take its course. There are no truely untouched areas, so you might as well harvest what you can on the land that you own. (even though, the farmers get £8,000 per turbine per year)

what do I mean by scientific and romantic? most proponents of Nuclear energy, who argue on a general knowledge level (I am excluding you here Jerome) approach this matter as: We humans are capable of exploiting this resource, and we humans can cope with the consequences, our human superiority will provide a solution for the storage in the cause of the next thousand years, there is no need to worry. Why should we not use a technology developed by the leading lights in our land and supported by the industry?
And they get especially rile up when the arguments against nuclear power, is brought up by tree-hugging, all-luvvy peacenics. I think the defense of nuclear power is often defended against those, environmental bastards, that just don't know what is better for them.

I don't know if that is a right observation, but it might explain, why nuclear and wind is played against each other and coal and gas are left out of the equation. It is the lobbies involved.

by PeWi on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 03:48:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
as my pro-nuclear neighbour stated, they will be an eyesore.

There is nothing accidental about this. There is a British anti-wind umbrella group, the Country Guardians, who are responsible for spreading this notion. This group is a nuclear lobby front, headed by an ex press secretary of Thatcher, and also heads a less publicly exposed prop, the Supporters of Nuclear Energy.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 04:12:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Surely there are a couple of very large projects that could generate by tidal power. They could have significant environmental or shipping impact. They might include barrages across the Cardiff Bay and an even bigger one from the north to south coast of the Avon valley - the river has a very high tidal surge. An even more extreme one might be to use the water passing the narrowest part of the Channel/Manche between Dover and the Pas de Calais.  

Do you have any statistics on what excess has to be built into the system to ensure constant supply when the amount available from renewables is low - if there is a long period of calm winds for example?

Like Jerome I would place nuclear fission low on a list of options and would want equal or greater investment in micro generation and renewables. There are considerable resources lying disused in the UK where historically the water courses have been shaped to provide things like mill runs so that water grain mills and later water powered industries thrived. These fell into disuse with the introduction of steam but a lot of the infrastucture is still there if hidden under overgrowth.

by Londonbear on Fri Sep 23rd, 2005 at 08:21:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have no statistics, because this is a case-by-case issue, depending on location, the size of the network, and the types of renewables used. I will only raise a few general points instead. (I note this is based on extensive but still an amateur's read-up combined with what I learnt from my father who is in the (traditional) energy sector, so the professionals here might correct me.)

One is that at present levels of renewables in medium-sized countries (e.g. Germany, the UK, France, to some extent importing-from-France Spain, but not mismanaged Italy), already existing excess capacities are enough. The main reason is that excess capacities were built to be capable to jump in when a large power plant, say a four-block nuclear power plant with 3.2 GW, breaks down - and this excess capacity is even ensured on a regional basis. Intermittance fluctuations are of the same magnitude.

Second, as there are economies of scale, renewables intermittance (the part that is not day/night or seasonal), especially short-term fluctuations, is also reduced in a larger system (at the price of transmission losses) - e.g. when whole weather systems are covered, the wind always blows somewhere. This is of a bit limited worth for Europe, with most wind being along the Atlantic Coast that may have low winds on the entire length, but for example for the USA, most of the intermittance could be balanced thus. (BTW, you may check in real-time the intermittance of Spanish wind power here - where I note Spanish wind is strongly concentrated in one small region, into Galicia province which is the part above Portugal. The average level to compare to is around 25% maximum capacity.)

Third, note that different renewables could balance each other's intermittance. Most directly hydro and wind (as already practised to some extent in Scandinavia): hydro would be run at varied rather than constant power to balance wind's intermittance (something that also revitalises floodplains and the river ecosystem downriver), and the water spared during strong winter winds means higher reservoir levels during summer droughts. For a more distant future,  the balancing of solar and wind is another issue: intriguingly, the day/night and weather patterns of these can be combine to give not a constant power, but one roughly following the daily human usage curve!

Fourth, but this again is an issue for later, there are non-ittermittent renewables that could provide excess in the system: tidal and geothermal. I'm a bit sceptical about the former (low total potential, possible danger to marine life); as for geothermal, it is still rather expensive if we disregard non-renewables external costs, but the potential is there (I wrote more on geothermal, again with a focus on Germany, here).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 08:00:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Supplement to the Spanish curves: the record of this year is an actual generation of around two-thirds of maximum generating capacity; this still means a helluva' lot of intermittance, but how far it is below the potential maximum (which a single turbine achieves from a certain wind speed over a wide speed range, hence is at full power for a significant part of the year) gives a hint at the scale of the existing balance.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 08:20:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Third, note that different renewables could balance each other's intermittance."

This could be an fruitful area of research.  We tend to look at the pros and cons of each type of renewable energy in isolation and each is found wanting in some way, usually for its intermittence or unpredictability.  Much more useful would be a serious search for the right mix of renewables to best meet our needs.

"For a more distant future,  the balancing of solar and wind is another issue: intriguingly, the day/night and weather patterns of these can be combine to give not a constant power, but one roughly following the daily human usage curve!"

I find this idea very interesting.  I would be grateful for any links you might have.

We all bleed the same color.

by budr on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 10:22:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Network operators in Denmark and northern Germany (where they have reached this level for real) and elsewhere (in studies) have stated that 20% of electricity (in kWh terms, not in capacity terms) can be generated by wind with the existing networks being able to cope with minimal investment. More than that would start to require some investment, which has already been assessed.

20% of kWh means a lot more in terms of capacity (MW) as windfarms typically produce one third or less of the kWh of the baseload plants per unit of capacity due to their intermittent nature (i.e. a 200 MW wind farm produces one third of the actual electricity of a 200 MW gas powered plant).

So the cost of intermittence on the system is NOT a valid argument today and will not be for a long time to limit the construction of windfarms.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 08:17:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
With Horns Rev repaired and so far a better wind year, in Denmark it could well be 20% this year. (In Germany, in Schleswig-Holstein province, it is already beyond that.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 08:42:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, Denmark has stopped building windfarms, and Germany is slowing down significantly, but the rest of the world has a lot to do to reach that same point.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 02:13:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nitpick: Rasmussen, Denmark's dogmatically neoliberal PM, finally bowed to demands from the industry two years ago, and three more off-shore parks will be built.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 04:14:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
aren't the imports from the Czech Republic likely to be nuclear as well?? (not that it changes your point in any way)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Sep 23rd, 2005 at 06:35:03 PM EST
Yes, they are, and most of that too is probably transiting en route to the Netherlands and Italy (which do have production shortage). (I have anecdotal evidence of the Czech-Netherlands route.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Sep 25th, 2005 at 07:18:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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