by Jerome a Paris
Thu Feb 9th, 2006 at 05:04:21 PM EST
It's been a momentous week with the Russian-Ukrainian gas kerfuffle, and my articles here on this topic have attracted some attention. So here's the follow up from the media... The biggest disappointment is that none of the articles have mentioned European Tribune, despite specific requests from me on how to present me. A banker is presumably more respectable as a source than a blogger...
Here's the Google summary to start with.
First, there was the NYT on Wednesday (also carried in the International Herald Tribune): Russia and Ukraine Reach Compromise on Natural Gas (Andrew Kramer)
Operating under various names, it was one of many subsidiaries, daughter companies and joint ventures that tapped into the then poorly audited revenue flows of Gazprom, analysts who follow the company say. When Mr. Putin brought new management to Gazprom, many of the schemes dried up. But the Ukrainian middlemen stayed in business.
Ukraine's national security service investigated RosUkrEnergo last summer for allegations of ties to organized crime. The security agency's former director, Oleksandr Turchinov, has told the Ukrainian news media that he pressed President Viktor A. Yushchenko to prosecute but instead was removed from his job.
Former executives at Gazprom and Naftogaz have held interests in RosUkrEnergo, according to Jérôme Guillet, a Paris-based banker and authority on Gazprom's business practices. "The names change every year, but it's always been the same mechanism," he said in a telephone interview. "You have a huge trade with hundreds of millions of dollars being captured by a small number of people."
The French paper La Tribune also quoted me on Thursday, but I have not been able to find an electronic version of the article (I do have a photocopy of this one...)
Moscou désamorce en urgence le conflit du gaz (Emmanuel GRYNSZPAN)
Certain experts rappellent toutefois que l'issue de la crise ne doit pas faire oublier l'extrême opacité des transactions gazières entre la Russie et l'Ukraine, qui ont cours depuis le début des années 90. "Les schémas 'turkmènes' sont particulièrement opaques et leur objectif n'est pas la maximisation des prix, mais la maximisation des revenus des quelques individus qui contrôlent les flux", estime Jérôme Guillet, un banquier spécialiste de l'Ukraine.
Some experts note that the resolution of the crisis should not hide the lack of transparency of the gas transactions between Russia and Ukraine since the early 90s. "The 'Turkmen' schemes are especially murky and their goal is not to maximise prices, but to maximise income for the small number of people who control the gas flows", says Jérôme Guillet, a banker familiar with Ukraine.
Then on Friday, I was interviewed (live) on Chicago Public Radio. Go here and there's a link to listen to me (I haven't listened yet, any feedback welcome...)
Today, it's back to the NYT Europe Comes to Terms With Need for Russian Gas (Mark Landler)
In the end, few experts here believe that Europe is in genuine danger of having Russia turn off the tap. The European market is too vital for Russia, and both sides have already invested too much in the plants and pipes that carry the gas. Managing the relationship is the issue.
"Pipelines are like kids in a marriage," said Jérôme Guillet, a French banker and an expert in natural gas. "The seller cannot sell his gas elsewhere; the buyer cannot buy gas elsewhere. The two sides are welded together."
Such marriages work best, the realists argue, when both partners have no illusions about changing the other.
I gave them my map, but I don't know if they used it. If anyone has the paper version of the paper, I'd be curious to know if there was anything more in there alongside this article...
Finally, I was also interviewed by a UK business magazine, called "Business" (Putin and the new cold war - Who got burned in the great gas war? (Ben Aris and Richard Orange)
The pipeline shutdown gave the West a short, sharp shock, and there was much relief when a deal was struck on prices with Ukraine a few days later and supplies were restored. Thus the dispute could also be seen as a high-risk move by Putin to bring a revenue-destructive gas subsidy from its Soviet days on to a market footing.
Some believe the move was motivated by something more sinister. Jérôme Guillet, a French banker who has worked closely with Gazprom, said: "There is a story behind this deal as most of the negotiations go on behind the scenes and what we see in public is only ever a small part of the iceberg.
"Gas transit is the biggest source of loot on offer. It looks like Yushchenko has been trying to clean up but that new people are attempting to barge into the business. They have caused the public row in an effort to embarrass the president."
The only clear winner from last week's deal is a company called RosUkrEnergo, which has been promoted to "exclusive distributor" of Russian gas to Ukraine. The deal will see its sales nearly double from 40bn cubic metres to 77bcm as a result. Although it is a 50/50 joint venture between Gazprom and Ukraine, no one really knows who owns the Ukrainian half, which is controlled by Swiss registered holding companies in nominee accounts of Austria's Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich.
The draft agreement between Russia and Ukraine also creates another intermediary to handle the imports from Russia, jointly operated by RosUkrEnergo and jointly owned with the Ukrainian national gas company Naftogaz.
One western gas executive who works with Gazprom and Naftogaz said: "Something very fishy is going on here as Gazprom has further diluted its share of the profits it gets from selling gas to Ukraine. It looks very much like someone behind the scenes was blocking a compromise unless they were cut in on the deal. Gazprom only owns half of RosUkrEnergo, which means it owns half of a half of the profits this new intermediary will earn. Someone was making a lot of money before. Now they are going to make even more."
I have also been interviewed by Newsweek, but haven't seen their article yet, so I don't know if they are quoting me or not. I'll update accordingly.
This all followed my articles here, so I'll just repost the links here for convenience:
Russian-Ukrainian gas deal - what's behind it? (Jan. 4)
Russian gas cuts - why there is no need to worry (Jan. 2)
Ukraine vs Russia: Tales of pipelines and dependence (Dec. 30)
A pipeline is like a marriage with kids (Dec. 16)
as well as earlier texts not from Eurotrib.
Russia, Ukraine, Oil, US Diplomacy - All in One (21 January 2005)
GAZPROM'S GOT WEST EUROPEANS OVER A BARREL (WSJ, 8 November 2002)
Fix Gazprom's Fatal Leak (WSJ, 31 May 2002) (item 11 in link)
Some thoughts on Gazprom (30 March 2002)