by Jerome a Paris
Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 08:26:51 AM EST
kept in the diaries as the front page is already pretty busy...
Wolfgang Munchau: EU must grasp the nuclear nettle (FT)
The two overriding objectives of the European Union's future energy policy should be to secure supplies and ensure environmental sustainability. It is currently in danger of failing in both. The Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute has reminded us of our dependence on Russian gas. The EU is also missing its Kyoto targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a wide margin.
If Europe is serious about meeting both goals, it will need a new energy mix - one that would include both nuclear and alternative energy sources, combined with policies to encourage energy efficiency. While nuclear energy is not the answer to all our energy problems, it has to be part of any answer. The scientific and strategic case for a return to nuclear energy in the EU is overwhelming.
I think we can agree that "secure supplies" and "environmental sustainability" are indeed two major goals with respect to any sound energy policy.
Secure supplies includes both technical (availability of resource, and compatibility with existing infrastructure to provide it and to use it) and political (dependency on other countries) issues and can fairly easily be defined at the national level. Environmental sustainability is a lot mushier, as it includes both resources depletion and externalities like pollution and climate change, things that make sense only on a planet-wide scale, as we "export" our pollution and gas emissions and also suffer from those of others, and we can import raw materials from elsewhere if we run out locally - but then with different political constraints.
The one objective which is left out here is that of energy being cheap in addition to being available and sustainable. I think Europe is mostly aware, as a long term importer of a good part of its energy resources, that cheap is not going to happen anymore, and that the sustainable bit will require us to pay more. But if not "cheap", "not unreasonably different from today's prices" is certainly an implicit goal, so as to avoid harsh disruptions.
Which brings us back to nuclear. I wrote about nuclear power almost a year ago (Nuclear energy in France - a Sunday special), and the arguments are well known on both sides
In favor of nuclear
- existing technology, still improving
- baseload capacity; can thus replace coal and natgas
- low marginal cost of production, with low sensitivity to fuel price
- low contribution to carbon emissions and global warming
- raw material supply coming mostly from stable Canada and Australia
Against nuclear
- very low probability but high risk in case of major accident
- no satisfactory long term solution to waste
- a likely terrorist target
- costs underestimated (accident insurance, decommissioning, waste management)
- not very flexible viz. load requirement variations
A lot of the discussion ends up being about the "real" price of nuclear power. The table below, which reflects (with some small tweaking to hide any confidential information) my calculations based on a number of sources (some of which are quoted in my post linked to above) show a number of things:

- currently, nuclear power is very competitive as a source of base load power, with the current, imperfect, pricing mechanisms we use;
- the emerging consciousness that carbon emissions must be curtailed, and the increasing likelihood that this will take the form of carbon taxes, will add additional costs to natural gas and (even more) coal generation;
- current natural gas prices have made that power source uncompetitive today (add at least 3c/kWh to the prices in the table) and for the foreseeable future;
- wind is likely to be the most competitive of all power sources in the very near future, and it does not have to bear the uncertainty over insurance, decommissioning and waste that nuclear does
- solar is still an order of magnitude - and thus a generation - away from being economically viable.
Wind is the future, but wind will remain handicapped, until sufficiently economic large scale storage systems can be built to iron out its intermittent nature (like solar, probably an order of magnitude and a generation away), and other base load sources are required in the meantime.
This shows that there are really two questions for nuclear: the long term one, and the medium term.
- in the long term, it is possible to imagine that our electricity (including to cover the additional needs as our transport system increasingly becomes electricity-based, either via plug in hybrids or mass transit systems) will be provided mostly by a combination of solar and wind+battery, and thus neither nuclear, coal nor gas will be needed. It is still hard to understand the impact on our use of land that such a switch will require, but it is certainyl conceivable;
- in the medium term, reasonably cheap baseload capacity is required, and the choice will be between coal (also dirt cheap if externalities are not accounted for and abundant in a number of countries, but a major contributor to global climate change) and nuclear. In some countries, the question will first be whether to maintain the existing nuclear capacity, and then how to deal with growing demand; in others whether to build now new plants to cover short to medium term needs, but in neither place can the debate be avoided.
Which brings us to the political landscape, discussed by Wolfgang Munchau:
For the present political generation, the anti-nuclear movement was one of the defining moments in their early political careers. It not only gave rise to green parties all over Europe but heavily influenced the political left - though, interestingly, this was never true of France where nuclear energy has enjoyed broad political support. Elsewhere in continental Europe, opposition to nuclear energy is so deep-rooted that even a dangerous rise in greenhouse gas emissions cannot change the views of a seasoned anti-nuclear campaigner. Whenever you raise the issue of nuclear energy, you can be guaranteed that the debate gets irrational and emotional.
(...)
energy policy is one of those classic areas where the logic of collective action at EU level is overwhelming. We all face the same problems, both in terms of emissions and in terms of security of supplies. Our economies are all highly sensitive to movements in energy prices. In fact, it is not easy to make a convincing intellectual case for national energy policies in a single European market.
At an EU summit in October last year, Mr Blair surprised everybody when he called for an enhanced European energy policy that included four pillars: better interconnection between national power grids, EU-wide co-operation on gas storage, better exchange of information on security issues and a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emission.
The above 4 pillars definitely apply to the USA as well, which has only weakly interconnected regional electricity networks, and a patchwork of local regulations.
Mr Blair is right. Europe needs a common energy policy and it also needs a rethink on nuclear power. I am not holding my breath: there is too much political resistance.
Again, the parallels apply: the USA need an energy policy, and it needs a real national debate on the topic. Energize America provides a start, and it does include a chapter on nuclear policy.
Nuclear has been discussed as a sub-thread on many energy threads. It deserves a full thread of its own. But let's keep it civil!