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Case for nuclear energy 'overwhelming'?

by Jerome a Paris Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 08:26:51 AM EST

kept in the diaries as the front page is already pretty busy...



Wolfgang Munchau: EU must grasp the nuclear nettle (FT)

The two overriding objectives of the European Union's future energy policy should be to secure supplies and ensure environmental sustainability. It is currently in danger of failing in both. The Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute has reminded us of our dependence on Russian gas. The EU is also missing its Kyoto targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a wide margin.

If Europe is serious about meeting both goals, it will need a new energy mix - one that would include both nuclear and alternative energy sources, combined with policies to encourage energy efficiency. While nuclear energy is not the answer to all our energy problems, it has to be part of any answer. The scientific and strategic case for a return to nuclear energy in the EU is overwhelming.


I think we can agree that "secure supplies" and "environmental sustainability" are indeed two major goals with respect to any sound energy policy.

Secure supplies includes both technical (availability of resource, and compatibility with existing infrastructure to provide it and to use it) and political (dependency on other countries) issues and can fairly easily be defined at the national level. Environmental sustainability is a lot mushier, as it includes both resources depletion and externalities like pollution and climate change, things that make sense only on a planet-wide scale, as we "export" our pollution and gas emissions and also suffer from those of others, and we can import raw materials from elsewhere if we run out locally - but then with different political constraints.

The one objective which is left out here is that of energy being cheap in addition to being available and sustainable. I think Europe is mostly aware, as a long term importer of a good part of its energy resources, that cheap is not going to happen anymore, and that the sustainable bit will require us to pay more. But if not "cheap", "not unreasonably different from today's prices" is certainly an implicit goal, so as to avoid harsh disruptions.

Which brings us back to nuclear. I wrote about nuclear power almost a year ago (Nuclear energy in France - a Sunday special), and the arguments are well known on both sides

In favor of nuclear

  • existing technology, still improving
  • baseload capacity; can thus replace coal and natgas
  • low marginal cost of production, with low sensitivity to fuel price
  • low contribution to carbon emissions and global warming
  • raw material supply coming mostly from stable Canada and Australia

Against nuclear

  • very low probability but high risk in case of major accident
  • no satisfactory long term solution to waste
  • a likely terrorist target
  • costs underestimated (accident insurance, decommissioning, waste management)
  • not very flexible viz. load requirement variations

A lot of the discussion ends up being about the "real" price of nuclear power. The table below, which reflects (with some small tweaking to hide any confidential information) my calculations based on a number of sources (some of which are quoted in my post linked to above) show a number of things:

  • currently, nuclear power is very competitive as a source of base load power, with the current, imperfect, pricing mechanisms we use;

  • the emerging consciousness that carbon emissions must be curtailed, and the increasing likelihood that this will take the form of carbon taxes, will add additional costs to natural gas and (even more) coal generation;

  • current natural gas prices have made that power source uncompetitive today (add at least 3c/kWh to the prices in the table) and for the foreseeable future;

  • wind is likely to be the most competitive of all power sources in the very near future, and it does not have to bear the uncertainty over insurance, decommissioning and waste that nuclear does

  • solar is still an order of magnitude - and thus a generation - away from being economically viable.

Wind is the future, but wind will remain handicapped, until sufficiently economic large scale storage systems can be built to iron out its intermittent nature (like solar, probably an order of magnitude and a generation away), and other base load sources are required in the meantime.

This shows that there are really two questions for nuclear: the long term one, and the medium term.

  • in the long term, it is possible to imagine that our electricity (including to cover the additional needs as our transport system increasingly becomes electricity-based, either via plug in hybrids or mass transit systems) will be provided mostly by a combination of solar and wind+battery, and thus neither nuclear, coal nor gas will be needed. It is still hard to understand the impact on our use of land that such a switch will require, but it is certainyl conceivable;

  • in the medium term, reasonably cheap baseload capacity is required, and the choice will be between coal (also dirt cheap if externalities are not accounted for and abundant in a number of countries, but a major contributor to global climate change) and nuclear. In some countries, the question will first be whether to maintain the existing nuclear capacity, and then how to deal with growing demand; in others whether to build now new plants to cover short to medium term needs, but in neither place can the debate be avoided.

Which brings us to the political landscape, discussed by Wolfgang Munchau:



For the present political generation, the anti-nuclear movement was one of the defining moments in their early political careers. It not only gave rise to green parties all over Europe but heavily influenced the political left - though, interestingly, this was never true of France where nuclear energy has enjoyed broad political support. Elsewhere in continental Europe, opposition to nuclear energy is so deep-rooted that even a dangerous rise in greenhouse gas emissions cannot change the views of a seasoned anti-nuclear campaigner. Whenever you raise the issue of nuclear energy, you can be guaranteed that the debate gets irrational and emotional.

(...)

energy policy is one of those classic areas where the logic of collective action at EU level is overwhelming. We all face the same problems, both in terms of emissions and in terms of security of supplies. Our economies are all highly sensitive to movements in energy prices. In fact, it is not easy to make a convincing intellectual case for national energy policies in a single European market.

At an EU summit in October last year, Mr Blair surprised everybody when he called for an enhanced European energy policy that included four pillars: better interconnection between national power grids, EU-wide co-operation on gas storage, better exchange of information on security issues and a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emission.

The above 4 pillars definitely apply to the USA as well, which has only weakly interconnected regional electricity networks, and a patchwork of local regulations.



Mr Blair is right. Europe needs a common energy policy and it also needs a rethink on nuclear power. I am not holding my breath: there is too much political resistance.

Again, the parallels apply: the USA need an energy policy, and it needs a real national debate on the topic. Energize America provides a start, and it does include a chapter on nuclear policy.

Nuclear has been discussed as a sub-thread on many energy threads. It deserves a full thread of its own. But let's keep it civil!

Display:
Crossposted on dKos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/1/9/81347/20018) for your kind recommendations if you find it worthwhile.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 08:42:46 AM EST
I'm not trying to be antagonistic, but that 35-hour work week must be great!  You post an average of 2 diaries a day and about 100+ comments (some of which could be diaries in themselves).  You also have 3 kids (is this right?).

How do you do it?

I work 10 hours a day and when I'm not at work I feel guilty for not spending any "free" time with my kids.

by slaboymni on Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 11:58:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I sleep less. I don't read books anymore. I read & write fast. (Jérôme)
You learn to do a lot when you only have 35 hours to do it.... (a)
My job includes reading the news and writing about energy (Paris)


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 02:42:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He only proof-reads half the time ...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 03:06:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I sleep less. I don't read books anymore. I read & write fast. (Jérôme)
You learn to do a lot when you only have 35 hours to do it.... (a)
My job includes reading the news and writing about energy (Paris)

You own Paris?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 11th, 2006 at 09:48:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't know how deep you got into the comments at DKos, but I thought you might find this interesting:

Fueling nuclear reactors with the element thorium instead of uranium could produce half as much radioactive waste and reduce the availability of weapons-grade plutonium by as much as 80 percent. But the nuclear power industry needs more incentives to make the switch, experts say.

Scientists have long considered using thorium as a reactor fuel -- and for good reason: The naturally occurring element is more abundant, more efficient and safer to use than uranium. Plus, thorium reactors leave behind very little plutonium, meaning that governments have access to less material for making nuclear weapons.

Have you told a veteran thank you today?

by just another vet on Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 02:29:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Have been waiting for you to do this, and am so glad you fit it in.

I believe that one of the drawbacks of nuclear power is not the energy source itself but rather the tremendous amount of misinformation about it that is circulated--sometimes by people who ought to know better, or do know better, but have an ideological agenda.

Or people fail to consider the big picture--the whole panorama of energy generation and the risks and drawbacks and external costs of each form.

People are superstitious about radiation and ignorant of the fact that even our own bones give off gamma rays and that coal-fired plants emit 100-400 times more radioactivity than nuclear plants, which shield and contain their waste.  People find medical radiation acceptable, and in the US we get the greatest amount of manmade radiation on average from nuclear medicine.  But Mother Nature outdoes humans in terms of level of radiation exposure--we get bombarded by radioactive materials in soil, rock, seawater and by cosmic radiation.  

People assume that exposure even to low-dose radiation causes cancer.  In fact about one-third of all deaths on the planet are due to cancer.  In societies where people live longer, we live long enough to develop cancers.  There have been no reliable studies correlating cancer increases to proximity to nuclear plants.  In fact in the US the National Cancer Institute did an extensive survey and found absolutely no increase of cancer around nuclear plants.

People believe nuclear plants can explode atomically.  This is impossible.

They believe terrorists can capture nuclear plants and nuclear waste.  Why would they bother to overcome more security obstacles than you would meet getting into Fort Knox or the Federal Reserve Bank or the White House when there are so many really easy ways to get radioactive materials (from the oil industry, for example).  Or why not just blow up a chemical plant--the risk and probability of that are much higher.

As for flying a plane into a nuclear plant--they're made the same way nuclear bunkers are, with thick concrete and steel.  The plane would crumple and the plant would remain intact, and the reactor would go into automatic shutdown.

The most serious risk to public health from energy generation is from burning fossil fuels.  

The most serious risk to the environment and to habitat is from burning fossil fuels.

As for Chernobyl, for a real-world analysis see the World Health Organization's report on the Chernobyl Forum 2005: http://www.jaeri.go.jp/english/ff/ff43/topics.html

by Plan9 on Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 05:50:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My quick scan did not reveal any indication that this argument has been used, but.

Uranium like most natural resources will need to be imported (to France, Britain, Germany at least). Will we not be dependent to the same degree on the countries that have Uranium as we are dependent on those other countries that have oil or gas or coal in the moment?

by PeWi on Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 03:54:53 PM EST
some pretty pictures for Germany:
are from here
by PeWi on Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 03:57:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This certainly applies for a lot of countries. Not for those having big stockpiles of nuclear weapons in the sense that the "reserves" acumulated in these stockpiles can be perfectly used in the appropriate nuclear reactors. So if you are the US France Uk or Russia, just make sure that you can use the residuals (it requires quite sophisticated processing but nothing you can do on your own when you ahve the weapon) in case of emergency.

In a word, "the national reserves" of nuclear fuel are much more bigger than those for oil.
For other countries, I must say that you are dead right.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 04:34:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you live in a coastal region, you could one day extract uranium from seawater.  

http://www.jaeri.go.jp/english/ff/ff43/topics.html

But the best arrangement would be an international fuel consortium that would "loan" countries fuel and then take spent fuel back and reprocess it.  This kind of monitoring, under the supervision of IAEA, would permit developing countries to have nuclear plants instead of burning fossil fuels.  

It might also give assurance to countries without a uranium supply of their own.

Resulting plutonium could be blended down into mixed oxide fuel.

Alternatively, fast-neutron reactors could burn up the waste portion of the spent fuel while reconditioning the usable uranium for another trip through the reactor.

See Dec. 2005 Scientific American.

by Plan9 on Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 05:34:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The SciAm article was an interesting read. The authors managed to rack up an impressive list of plus points without highlighting many (or indeed any IIRC) negatives - which is fair enough in an advocacy piece but rubs hard against my 'too good to be true' bone.

I'm in no way competant to critically evaluate the fuel cycle that was proposed but I'm reasonably scientifically literate and willing to be taught, so I'm interested in any nuclear engineering types who are putting the idea through the wringer. Anyone know of any such analyses?

For instance one thing that immediately struck me as dodgy was the idea of using molten sodium as the moderator for the proposed fast neutron reactors. Dim recollections of how reactive Na and its cognates are from my chemistry O-level made me think that this was a distinctly bad idea, but I fully acknowledge that I'm not the person who can back that gut-reaction up with anything that looks like evidence without doing much more work on this than my family and employer would be happy with.

So if anyone is able to point me to an enlightening source or two I'd be grateful.

Regards
Luke

-- #include witty_sig.h

by silburnl on Tue Jan 10th, 2006 at 10:42:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am not in any way an expert--having gotten interested in the topic because of my realization that the environment has been placed in serious jeopardy from fossil fuel combustion.  However, I will make a stab at answering and perhaps someone better informed can chime in.

The advantage of a sodium-cooled reactor is that it is inherently safe from meltdown.  If the core overheats the sodium, which is a liquid metal coolant, expands.  The expansion results in cooling.  So the reactor goes subcritical.  The other advantage of sodium is that it doesn't slow down the neutrons, and a fast-neutron reactor can do stuff a water-moderated one cannot. It would be good for making hydrogen, for example.

The drawback of sodium is that it does not get along well with air or water so you have to keep it in a sealed loop and take care about the part of the process that involves transferring the heat the sodium carries away from the reactor to the steam generator--the pipes carrying water to be turned into super-heated steam to spin the turbines that make the electricity.

by Plan9 on Tue Jan 10th, 2006 at 06:45:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As a former supporter of nuclear power in the US my 40 years of experience is that the NucEnergy people here lie.  They lie about the costs.  They lie about the benefits.  They lie about operating expenses.  They lie about operating problems.  They lie about waste management.  They lie about risks.

And then they build a nuclear power plant directly on the San Andreas fault.

While I still think nuclear power, in the abstract, makes a hell of a lot of sense I wouldn't trust the present band of yahoos with a power plant constructed of rubber bands, baling wire, and gerbil-powered treadmills.

 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 06:58:32 PM EST


'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Jan 11th, 2006 at 08:52:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Some years ago I read a book called The Health Hazards of NOT Going Nuclear by Petr Beckmann.  Beckmann gave some perspective on the arguments against nuclear energy by considering the negative consequences of likely alternatives in (I think) an even handed way.

Certainly there are serious issues surrounding nuclear energy that must to be addressed.  The issues are well known and I won't catalog them here.  But I do think the opponents of nuclear energy too often argue the negatives in a vacuum, as if there were no negatives to the possible alternatives, or as if those negatives were somehow less significant.  The debate about nuclear energy begins with a negative bias unlike any other energy source.

We all bleed the same color.

by budr on Mon Jan 9th, 2006 at 07:29:03 PM EST
the asinine hyperbole accompanying nuclear's early offering...too cheap to meter?

 you talk about bias, when it's citizens defending themselves from something no insurance company will touch with a ten-foot geiger counter?

worst things about going nuclear:

  1. it ups the terrorism ante by an order of magnitude, in a world already half out of its collective gourd over the subject.

  2. all euro governents seem to have bought into the straussian line of 'lie, it's good for the little sheeple to be happy and not think too much' in the not-too-distant past, why the f*** would i or anyone trust them with such a responsibility over an issue like this?

 no-brainer: we need to educate people to understand how much happier they'd be if their pols weren't in bed with corporate ripoff conmen, if they didn't have to drive themselves through hellish, polluted traffic every soulsucking day in order to afford a life comfortable enough to ignore the beast they serve, that gives our children autism in record numbers from lead poisoning, mercury, benzene and brutal cognitive dissonance already...now we want to turn more of this planet radioactive?

please....people...this is ridiculous - as ridiculous as bush v.1 saying 'our way of life is not negotiable' and then bombing little brown folk into oblivion.

negotiating with nature should be done by leaders with the humility to realise what an intelligent organism nature is, and how willing it is for us to live peacefully with plenty of energy, instead thugs beat it out with destructive cudgels.....for what?

more landfill-to-be stuff, cheaper?

we've been ad-washed into believing we're special, when the only reason we're special is that by guile and historical accident we're in a catbird seat, global power-wise.

ho ho how great!

we're the lucky ones whose ancestors brought europe into a power position, we've lived off the colonial fat of the globe for centuries, and what if the shoe had been on the other foot and africa had ripped off all our resources and was now wondering if they should deign to stop screwing us with high interest as we paid back loans of the money generated by their military-backed middlemen from our own natural resources and the sweat of our enslaved backs?

that's the cognitive dissonance here and everywhere.... we just can't do the simple, right thing of putting ourselves in the shoes of the other 4/5 ths of the world, while we boost perfume and fast cars as 'value' in our slick, smugly mediated, medicated self-congratulation.

we don't want to be 'invaded' by their 'immigrants'; they are our shadow, and we know (but we don't admit it) they have revengeful reason to wish us pain, koran in hand or not. they're jealous of us, because we hoodwinked them with fine talk while we undermined them with corporate 'values' like fining them for keeping their own seedbanks alive, or selling them their own water, while 'educating' their politicians' sons at prestige universities and propping up pomp.

there are those who are grateful for our education facilities, the generosity of our charities, the warmheartedness of religious volunteers who in any number of ways do fantastically useful things, but where are our governments?

keeping secrets...about why our quality of life sucks for so many, and who pays big behind the curtain to keep us distracted with superstar soccer and baubles on the shopping channel, while our energy policies continue to avoid what's already staring us in the face so bad, any fool whose head hasn't been twisted off his gimbals can see we're gunning for trouble.

what kind of world would we have?
....if we devoted 1,000,000th of the money into clean energy we presently pour into fancy ways of killing people, militarizing space, grooming poodles and chasing celebrities to death, (especially of they actually wake up a few folks about what their tax-paid-for-landmines were doing for afghan kids while they discussed which brand of brie to serve at that important new client presentation).

my best friend's father died of thymus cancer when she was 12, working in a nuclear power station. her mother died in her 50's driving a 2 hour, 20 kilometre commute to work for amoco every day for 20 + years, of cancer.

every house on her street in n.w. germany had a family member with cancer.

this. is. not. supposed. to . be. like .this.

hello?

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Jan 11th, 2006 at 09:53:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems to me that one of the political shortcomings of nuclear power is that even in a pro-nuclear environment, it is still a lengthy process to get a plant approved and built. That means that the project spans several political cycles, and at any point can get cancelled or disrupted.

A coal plant, or, better, a gas plant, can be put up pretty quickly. All you need is one administration that supports "clean coal" and you can get quite a bit of infrastructure in place.

I'd guess that the prospects for widespread nuclear power are not very great, even in the face of a significant increase in the price of oil.

by asdf on Tue Jan 10th, 2006 at 12:26:50 AM EST
When the last reactors were built in the US, over two decades ago, the construction time was long--in part because of the way the Nuclear Regulatory Commission was overseeing the project.  In Canada they seem to be able to put up a plant in 5 years.

I have heard recently that a new plant could be built in 5 years at a cost of $1.5 billion.  The advanced reactor designs are simpler than the old dinosaurs and therefore more efficient and quicker to put together.  Standardization would also make everything cheaper and faster.

Utilities are considering six new plants for the US.  In the long run, once they earn out construction costs, they are profitable--even though, unlike other electricity sources, nuclear plants have to pay for security and to be responsible for their waste.

Here's what the Energy Information Agency, usually a reliable source, has to say about new construction:

A primary source of doubt regarding the potential of nuclear power, at least in the U.S., has been whether the recent nuclear technology has been too expensive to compete in the commercial marketplace. There have been no orders for new nuclear power plants during the last three decades in the United States and Canada. Finland's order for a new reactor in 2003 broke a similar extended hiatus in Western Europe, excepting France where orders tailed off later. France now looks likely to follow. Reactor vendors have not ignored the message that their product has recently involved high investment costs and long construction periods. Vendors now seek to position their product with promises of lower prices, shorter construction times, and specified financial arrangements. Most competitors are now offering fixed and historically low prices for at least the nuclear components of their designs.  These promises vary with the price of basic materials such as steel and concrete and as first of a kind engineering costs are allocated or eliminated.  Location, buyer specifications, and regulatory requirements can also alter anticipated costs.

Concerns regarding construction costs for new nuclear power plants contrast sharply with the comparatively low cost of operating commercial reactor designs. Overall operating costs for nuclear power plants, as reported to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), have been roughly the same as (most recently slightly less than) operating costs for coal-fired plants for about two decades. Such operating costs are considerably below the costs of operating most natural gas-fired generation units even when natural gas prices are relatively low. Moreover, the fuel cost component of operating a nuclear power plant is particularly low. This operating cost advantage has given existing nuclear power units a favored position in the provision of base load electric power. Nuclear plant designers hope to take advantage of such low operating costs in positioning their new designs.  Whether they will succeed has not yet been demonstrated.  http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/nuclear/page/analysis/nucenviss2.html

by Plan9 on Tue Jan 10th, 2006 at 06:36:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I will not restate in full my opposition to the nuclear future, only one point:

Wind is the future, but wind will remain handicapped, until sufficiently economic large scale storage systems can be built to iron out its intermittent nature (like solar, probably an order of magnitude and a generation away), and other base load sources are required in the meantime.

Wind power can be built fast, but not instantly either. The timescale of switching from coal/gas to wind is just that one generation needed to develop other renewables to the point where we could go from 50% to 100% renewables.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 11th, 2006 at 09:26:30 AM EST
Another factor on the practical side is the operational attitudes of the electric power companies.

Coal fired plants are messy: Huge piles of dirty coal, noisy delivery trains, leaky steam pipes and boilers, puddles on the floor, etc. But it's ok, because other than the routinely accepted danger of falling or getting burned, that's just how big industrial plants are. (Oil refineries, too, for example.)

When you try to run a nuclear plant with the same sort of attitude, it simply doesn't work. You get lots of regulatory violations, press investigations, and basically just a big bunch of trouble.

The cultural attitudes required to run a successful nuke are hard for an energy company to develop.

by asdf on Thu Jan 12th, 2006 at 12:06:57 AM EST
Coal fired plants are messy: Huge piles of dirty coal, noisy delivery trains, leaky steam pipes and boilers, puddles on the floor, etc.

For example German plants don't look like that anymore.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 12th, 2006 at 04:47:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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