And the winner is...

So who's going to win? you ask. As if I'm going to tell you.

The four who gave up were undoubtedly swayed by their bad polls. But now there are only three left, the previous polls don't mean the same thing. Royal is favourite and has some fairly weighty backing, (former PM Pierre Mauroy and both the party leaders in the Assembly and the Senate have recently come out in her favour), but who will Lionel Jospin throw his weight behind? Probably DSK, closer to his political style while Fabius is an old enemy, but if Fabius got his campaign shifting by federating the party left, Jospin might back him -- anything but Ségolène!

Of the five biggest Fédés (Federations at département level), three have already come out in favour of Royal. Paris, however, with 18,000 members, has not made up its mind -- and Paris is Jospin territory.

Update [2006-10-5 6:28:49 by afew]: After a hint below from Jérôme and ten kilometres on my bike, here's a titbit from Ze Chained-Up Duck:

Before pulling out, Jospin took careful note of the names of all those he considered had let him down, like Jean-Marc Ayrault [PS leader in the lower house], with his "undignified attacks". And above all DSK, whose withdrawal Yoyo [Le Canard's name for Jospin] hoped for, in vain. DSK and his people apparently made things worse by "arrogant, violent, disagreeable" attacks. [Note: there was some talk about "the man of the past" in DSK's camp...]

Avant de se retirer, Jospin a bien noté les noms de ceux dont il estime qu'ils lui ont manqué, comme Jean-Marc Ayrault, avec ses attaques "indignes". Et surtout Dominique Strauss-Kahn, dont Yoyo espérait le désistement et qui n'a rien fait. DSK et les siens auraient même aggravé leur cas par des offensives "arrogantes, violentes, désagréables".

As a result, Strauss-Kahn can whistle for Jospinist votes in the PS primary. They'd rather vote... Fabius, whose former enemy brother Jospin now describes as the "only statesman left in the race". (bolding mine)

Résultat, Strauss-Kahn peut se brosser pour obtenir les voix des jospinistes dans la primaire interne au PS. Plutôt voter... Fabius, que son ancien frère ennemi qualifie désormais de "seul homme d'Etat encore en course".

There are too many direct quotes here for the Canard not to be basing their story on an account or accounts from credible witnesses. If Jospin still commands the loyalty of his troops (though how many he has left is a fair question), then DSK will miss out on a lot of votes from the centre of the PS. [End of Update]

Le Monde publishes this map of the departmental federations and their choices.
Key: green: Fabius blue: DSK maroon: Royal pink: no call yet

The PS recently gained 73,000 new members thanks to an Internet recruiting drive. The new members are mostly young and constitute an uncharted world for long-serving party staff. How will they vote? It's generally thought they will mostly back Ségolène Royal, but nothing's certain at this stage.

Here are a couple of tips from Pascal Perrineau, of the think-tank Cevipof, in an Internet chat with readers of Le Monde:

Can we schematize like this: Royal the furthest to the right of the left, DSK the social democrat (the centre of the PS), and Fabius the repentant socialist? Which one has the best positioning?	Peut-on schématiser comme suit : Royal la plus à droite de la gauche, DSK le social-démocrate (le centre du PS) et Fabius le socialiste repenti ? Quel est le meilleur positionnement ?
Pascal Perrineau: As always with the PS, which is a party of tendencies and ideological confrontation, there are differing sensitivities: Laurent Fabius is attempting to take over the niche of the left of the party and make use of the dynamics of the "non" to the European constitutional treaty. DSK takes up a clear position in the social-democrat niche and with a PS that would fully take on the "culture of government". Ségolène Royal's position is more ambiguous, and, in a certain way, reminds one of the position François Mitterand liked to occupy: a "halfway house" position borrowing a certain leftwing "style" (references to participative democracy, a benevolent attitude towards some of the themes of the altermondialists), and references to the right (military-run training for multiple-offence delinquents, wish to get free of the school zoning map).	Pascal Perrineau : Comme toujours dans le PS, parti de courants et d'affrontements idéologiques, il y a différentes sensibilités : Laurent Fabius tente d'occuper le créneau de la gauche du Parti et de profiter de "la dynamique du non" au traité constitutionnel européen. DSK se positionne clairement sur le créneau social-démocrate et sur un PS qui assumerait la "culture de gouvernement". Pour Ségolène Royal, le positionnement est plus ambigu, et d'une certaine manière, rappelle la position qu'aimait occuper François Mitterrand : une position "d'entre-deux" empruntant un certain "style" de gauche (les références à la démocratie participative, la bienveillance montrée vis-à-vis de certaines thèses du mouvement altermondialiste) et des références à la droite (encadrement militaire des délinquants récidivistes, volonté de sortir du carcan de la carte scolaire).
It seems to me each candidate bases their candidature on a reserved zone, values and order for one, the economy for another, "to the left" for the third. Like in marketing. Which of the chosen fields will grab party activists most?	Il me semble que chacun des candidats fonde sa candidature sur une zone réservée, les valeurs et l'ordre pour l'une, l'économie pour l'autre, "à gauche" pour le troisième. Comme en marketing. Lequel des terrains choisis sera le plus accrocheur auprès des militants ?
Pascal Perrineau: The use by the candidates of these different systems of reference isn't sufficient. PS cardholders are members of a party that wants to be in power. The capacity of one or another candidate to bring the party to power will be a strong element of choice.	Pascal Perrineau : L'exploitation par les différents candidats de ces différents "référentiels" n'est pas suffisante. Les adhérents du PS sont membres d'un parti qui aspire au pouvoir. La capacité de tel ou tel candidat à amener le parti au pouvoir sera un élément fort du choix.
This can already be seen in the rallying of some elected representatives to Ségolène Royal, considered - wrongly or rightly - as the best "electoral locomotive" for the next presidential, but also for the legislative and municipal elections to follow.	On le voit déjà dans le ralliement parfois très pragmatique des élus à Ségolène Royal, considérée - à tort ou à raison - comme étant la meilleure "locomotive électorale" pour la prochaine élection présidentielle, mais aussi pour les élections législatives et municipales qui suivront.

The primary

The 210,000 PS members will vote by secret ballot in a two-round election. The first round will take place on 16th November, the second on 23rd November. If a candidate gets an absolute majority in Round One, that candidate is elected. Otherwise the two best-placed meet in Round Two. A series of debates, some televised on parliamentary TV, some in regional meetings of PS members, will pit the candidates against each other, the three before Round One, the remaining two in the interim between Rounds One and Two.

More as events unfold...