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Desertification in Europe

by whataboutbob Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 08:45:09 AM EST

From this morning’s EuroTrib Salon this article caught my eye:

Deutsche Welle: Spain Fights Back on Europe's Desertification Front Line

Did you know that if you turn off the tap while cleaning your teeth, you can save 12 liters (3 gallons) of water? It's old news to most people in Spain whose government has launched a campaign to fight desertification.

Officials on the Iberian Peninsula are leading Europe's charge in the fight against global warming and are pulling out all the stops to get people to save water in a region increasingly under threat.

The desert is on the march in Spain. Around 6 percent of the Iberian Peninsula has been lost to the wilderness forever, and a third of all arable land is seriously threatened. One of the worst affected regions is the southern Spanish province of Malaga, which is losing two centimeters (almost one inch) of valuable land every year. What is happening in Malaga could be the fate of much of Spain and other parts of southern Europe if desertification is not arrested.

As complicated as the consequences may be, the cause is really quite simple, according to Jose Luis Rubio, president of the European Society for Soil Conservation: The problem is not taken seriously enough.

"Soil is a living entity," said Rubio. "It is the earth's skin and is very sensitive to temperature changes or lack of moisture."

I think it would be important...and interesting even...if we have an ongoing conversation here about ways each of us can act in more environmental ways in our daily lives, and to start reporting more on the things that are being done in our respective countries to fight global warming (or the impacts of). Today, influenced by this article...I made sure to shave without leaving the water running....with Spain in mind!


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On the flight back fronm Tanzania, KLM is showing "An Inconvenient Truth" as its feature film...and while I consider mayself rather informed about environmental issues, this film really blew me away. There is so much I didn't know, and that film makes a very compelling case about how quickly (radically) our environment is changing...but also how we could also quickly reverse global warming...IF we act now. This desertification issue is just another canary in the coalmine...

If you haven't seen "An Inconvenient Truth"...go see it!!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 08:50:11 AM EST
Also, check out cskendrick's current article on the Recommended list:

Water Scarcity & Warfare

http://www.eurotrib.com/?op=displaystory;sid=2006/11/12/145749/51

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 08:56:44 AM EST
El Pais has an editorial today lamenting the infighting among the Spanish regions on the issue of water resources.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 09:07:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I got a bigger post to prepare...coming right up. :)

Have Keyboard. Will Travel. :)
by cskendrick (cs ke nd ri c k @h ot m ail dot c om) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 11:11:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there any breakdown available on the types of activity that are most damaging when it comes to water scarcity leading to effects such as desertification?

Migeru mentioned golf courses in the water scarcity and warfare thread, and my immediate thought was tourism.  How else is land being used in a way that drains water, other than farming?  

Proportionally, is the greatest effect cumulatively from local populations not being as careful as they could be not to waste water or is the impact from selfish tourism larger (all those bedsheets and towels being washed and swimming pools being filled)?

by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 09:46:26 AM EST
Urban development for tourism (hotels and resorts, holiday apartments, second and third homes) is a huge part of the problem. As usual, economic growth (which is undeniably linked to tourism and has raised the standard of living for many people) has been at the expense of environmental depletion and a price will be paid in due time.

It really makes me wonder what GDP would look like if depletion of natural resources were accounted for properly.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 09:53:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
this is my chief beef with GDP as well, especially the health blowback, on humans and ecosystems.

did shareholders in hooker chemical have to pay for love canal cleanup, or the affected neighbours' hospital bills and damaged lives?.

travel broadens the mind like nothing else....it's sadly ironic that such a once-beneficial activity has devolved into the parody it is now.

i wonder if jet travel will die, and be replaced by something slower.

and i wonder if tourism will ever be managed in a way that does respect the environment better.

i think the 'mass' in 'mass tourism' is the problem perhaps....

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 10:17:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not only the mass tourism who is the problem, also the style of living at home is a problem. Last summer it was a very hot and dry July in Flanders. Asking at the water companies if they wouldn't be a problem with the delivering of drinking water was the answer denying: the peak of using drinking water was in June when a lot of people are filling there swimming pole....    
by velaga on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 03:52:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Welcome!  Maybe you have been here before, but I didn´t see you.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 04:36:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's the second time I put something here. I follow the Tribune since two months, but I haven't much time to follow every thing, and my English is not that good that I can write everything I want. But sometimes I will give some off my ideas or thinking's....
by velaga on Tue Nov 14th, 2006 at 03:29:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't worry about your English, and welcome.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 14th, 2006 at 03:31:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't worry, and welcome. If French is your mother tongue, then if something is difficult to express, just go ahead and use it. (If it is Flemish, you could also use that when Elco B, tzt or Nomad is around.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 14th, 2006 at 03:58:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
'It's flemish my mother tongue'
by velaga on Wed Nov 15th, 2006 at 04:13:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
West-flemish I suppose?.

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Wed Nov 15th, 2006 at 04:50:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm curious. How can this be inferred from that short English comment?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 05:52:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Username. Thisone has a special meaning here. Cannot explain it without his agreement.

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 06:07:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems to me that agriculture is somewhat the elephant in the room here. In the US, the situation looks like this:

Irrigation is critical to agriculture in the United States: nearly half of the value of all crops sold comes from the 16 percent of harvested cropland that is irrigated. In the process, agriculture accounts for over 80 percent of water consumed (i.e., withdrawn from surface- or groundwater sources and lost to the immediate water environment through evaporation, plant transpiration, incorporation in products or crops, or consumption by humans or livestock). But water is increasingly needed for urban, industrial, environmental, and other uses. Because it accounts for such a large share of total consumption, agriculture is central to the challenge of balancing water demands among alternative uses. (source)

And I would expect that the situation is roughly comparable in Europe as well.

And then there's the irrigation-induced buildup of minerals, leading to declines in soil fertility (which also promotes erosion).

Agricultural policy in low-precip regions needs to encourage careful use of water resources (though this is probably akin to mentioning a g*s t*x on DK). I'd additionally wonder whether all crops grown in these regions are optimum for the conditions.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 10:40:36 AM EST
Then there is the type of irrigation used. I was pleasantly surprised to find Greek olive growers utilizing drip irrigation in many places in SW Greece...which saves a lot of water, and focuses it to the areas where it is needed. Wonder how much that is used, in general?

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 11:07:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They grow Lettuce in Arizona during the winter. Yeah.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 01:01:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Passing France during the summer holidays I'm always surprised by the way the farmers irrigated there crops. The throw the water in the air while it is more than 25°C and the sun is shinning. A lot of the water is already evaporated before it touch the plant. With the high temperatures only a fraction of the used water is available for the crop.
I think water is still to cheap to invest in drip irrigation.
by velaga on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 03:44:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It would be interesting to research, but there are whole sections of the western US (I mean huge) where commercial agriculture depends on large amounts of irrigation water diverted from rivers to arid lands. I saw a piece on TV recently about the shrinking of the Salton Sea, and comparing it to what has happened in Kazakhstan during Soviet days with the drying up of the Aral Sea.  Seems continued Govt. sponsored water projects designed to satisfy large agricultural projects are to blame - same as similar projects in the Soviet Union where river water normally destined for the Aral were diverted to grow cotton in essentially desert lands.  Again, the question to be asked is: what is the real cost of such endeavors or what is the real cost of a tomato raised under such conditions and who is ultimately paying that price?  Are we using up and in some cases irrevocably ruining our water supply, lands and environment mostly to support what would otherwise be considered unprofitable investments.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 06:27:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The whole list running as follows...

France
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Malta
Albania
Greece
Netherlands
Slovakia
Switzerland
Portugal
Montenegro
Austria
Bosnia
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Macedonia
Croatia
Ireland

..over the course of the early 21st century, as a function of (a) current water use and (b) projected population, as a metric of expected future use.

Now, there are plenty of other countries that are using more water than they have and are distressed about it (starting with Spain, ending with the UK and Germany) but their populations are gradually declining.

But there is one thing...

I am assuming constant carrying capacity here.

<u>What losing one-third of the water supply would do to Spain</u>

Short form: It would suck.

And it would all the worse, if the desertification occurred swiftly, as that alone could destabilize the society, never mind the economy, which would likewise be 'corrected'. Water is the basis of almost all modes of economic activity, and the ultimate constraint. It is likely the Spanish GDP would plummet over time, perhaps not a full 33%, as ongoing growth from surviving businesses and projects would appreciate, and some of the decline would be mitigated by improvements to water works (and consumption habits).

Regardless, a significant decline in the Spanish standard of living, particularly in affected areas, would happen.

And any existing conflict, say, regional separatism, partisan strife, or just ETA feeling frisky, would be exacerbated.

Have Keyboard. Will Travel. :)

by cskendrick (cs ke nd ri c k @h ot m ail dot c om) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 11:46:39 AM EST
Where do you get that Spain's population is "gradually declining"?

(data)
A first scenario was considered in which the net inflow of foreigners in Spain evolve according to the most recent tendencies until 2010, after which year they stay constant. The total inflow into Spain during the period 2007-2059 rises to 14,6 millon people.

A second scenario, which in the medium term assumes a greater reduction in net inflows, has been established in agreement with Eurostat. The net inflows from abroad are the same for the period 2002-2006 and, after this last year, the decreasing trend in the foreign inflows until 2010, places then at around 100.000 per year for the period 2007-2059, hence the total inflow during the period is 5,8 millon de people.

[Translation mine]

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 02:42:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. That population of a given area converges over time on the maximum sustainable population.
  2. That in the case of Spain and other countries, the long-run proportion of net migration to overall growth does not change appreciably from the past fifty years to the next fifty.

In which case I get the following projections for Spain...

2000    39,996,671
2010    38,627,221
2020    38,165,232
2030    37,372,546
2040    35,504,310
2050    32,562,163
2060    37,798,073
2070    37,922,479
2080    38,023,254
2090    38,105,098
2100    38,171,619

The OECD Projections aare even more restrictive

2000    39,630,000
2010    39,089,000
2020    37,627,000
2030    35,611,000
2040    33,200,000
2050    30,226,000

Have Keyboard. Will Travel. :)

by cskendrick (cs ke nd ri c k @h ot m ail dot c om) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 03:22:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You have to revise the figures upwards substantially to match the actual data for 2000-2006. I have added your estimates to my plot.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 03:36:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem with your model is that, in the case of Spain, it was a net migration country for the second half of the 20th century, but it is now a net immigration country.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 03:38:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 I get the following...a short-term surge, then a generational slump, then renewed, slower growth by the end of the century.

Yar     Total Population, Spain
2000    39,996,671
2006    40,397,842
2010    40,559,435
2020    39,513,527
2030    38,028,805
2040    36,765,658
2050    36,062,056
2060    35,947,024
2070    36,253,984
2080    36,741,454
2090    37,189,397
2100    37,460,945

Now, this is a generic model, applied globally. It produces plausible results for a wide range of countries but there's no insistence that it works precisely for Spain's case.

Have Keyboard. Will Travel. :)

by cskendrick (cs ke nd ri c k @h ot m ail dot c om) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 03:31:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am rather concerned that Eurostat's model asusmes migratory flows are going to start declining right now. This will lead to underestimating the strain that immigration will cause on Europe's resources and social structures, as well as motivating politicians to worry about "decreasing populations".

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 03:45:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm going to translate today's El Pais editorial in full, copyright be damned...

El Pais: Aguas autonómicas (13-11-2006)

The latent conflict between independent communities over water management, and in particular over the control of transfers between river basins, is one of the effects derived from the new features introduced on the matter by the new Statute of Catalonia. Under cover of  in that precedent, later statutory reforms have introduced in their texts the assumption of competition over river basins running over more than one [Autonomous] Community, which, as anyone would have been able to anticipate, has caused protests by the other affected communities. One of the effects is an unusual crossing of regional unanimities: People's Party and Socialist of Murcia, against PP and PSOE of Castilla-La-Mancha; or those of Valencia against Aragón, or Extremadura against Andalusia, and so on, which is affecting the internal cohesion of the parties and threatens being transferred to the voting on the statutory reforms nowmaking their way through the Congress. Hence the doubts of the Government, which, on the one hand, affirms that it does not expect to intervene to modify the projects that are already or will shortly be before the Cortes, but offerst itself, on the other hand, to foster a consensus between the opposed communities. A consensus that will be improbable without a reconsideration of the reforms in course. The Constitution establishes (article 149-22) the exclusive competence of the State on the river basins that run over more than one community. Now we see how well founded that exclusivity was, intended to avoid what is now happening. The new Catalan Statute does not discuss that competence directly, but it sets limits to in so far as it affects the territory of Catalonia. Certain conditions and cautions can be reasonable (participation in the organisations managing the river basins, consultations with the [Autonomous] Communities on [water] transfers, and so on), and in fact some already appear in the present Water Law; but if it is a State competence it does not correspond to a Statute to define its reach; for reasons of principle and reasons for practical order: if the conditions from each [Autonomous] Community are contradictory to each other, as it already happens, the result will be paralysis. Anyway, the Catalan reform passed the approval of the Congress with small modifications, and it has given a cue to other Communities to try not to be less, starting with Aragón, which has set the amount of water that it reserves for its own use in any case. The Castilla-La-Mancha reform establishes a unilateral deadline of 2015 to continued transfers of water from the Tagus to the Segura basins; whereas, for example, the new Statute of Valencia includes the right to receive surplus water from other communities. In this situation, and with several Statutes already approved, going back does not seem easy. Unless the Constitutional Court declares the reforms introduced in article 117 of the new Catalan Statute unconstitutinal, which would allow a return to square one.


Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 03:06:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why Slovakia? Slovakia is all mountains, I cannot imagine it going desert. The same for Switzerland, Austria or Slovenia, and Ireland on the Atlantic I don't understand at all. Meanwhile, you left off Hungary from the iist, despite on-going desertification of its central part.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 14th, 2006 at 04:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The list is ranked by population growth as a fraction of available water resources, if I understood correctly, not by risk of desertification.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 14th, 2006 at 05:12:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Nov 15th, 2006 at 06:02:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"in the name of Spain", I thank you, whataboutbob!  And everyone else for that matter.

Just talking about water:
*If I´m not wetting or rinsing.. I shut it off.  *I think I still have a brick in my toilet tank.

*<snark>  Lawns, outside of fairy tales, are stoopid and should be illegal.  (I had complaints about my wild yard in the States.)

A water hose should not be confused with a rake or a broom...  A private swimming pool is an excess symbol and has very low status...

Crops should be a function of local water and climate, right?  Sadly enough, some people want the dessert to produce a vegetable garden at all costs.
The most upsetting may be plastic greenhouses like (google earth) "El Ejido, Almeria, Spain"

Over-building along with municipal corruption is finally out in the open, everywhere.  The water problem is concentrated in the summer months, when everybody-and-their-grandma goes to their summer place, usually on the coast.

More de-salinization? plants are in the works, but I doubt that throwing salt back helps the oceans or marine life, so that´s a band-aid.

?

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 01:43:02 PM EST
Most of what you say is true (except about desalination plants), but only if the underlying goal is to maintain the maximum possible population. If you reduce the population, then water can be wasted without causing trouble...
by asdf on Mon Nov 13th, 2006 at 09:45:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is also true if current population is near the maximum carrying capacity. Spain is depleting its aquifers, which means the population is likely above the carrying capacity at current consumption levels.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 14th, 2006 at 05:14:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Did you know that if you turn off the tap while cleaning your teeth, you can save 12 liters (3 gallons) of water?

I have never seen anyone not turning off water while cleaning their teeth. Is this behaviour really that common?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Nov 14th, 2006 at 04:08:43 PM EST
And what power tap, or how long do people spend cleaning their teeth to pump out 12l?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 14th, 2006 at 04:15:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeedy another idiot journalist not giving the time period.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 14th, 2006 at 04:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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