Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Catalan Election: Nationalist CiU tops Socialist PSC

by ManfromMiddletown Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 03:57:30 AM EST

The Spanish region of Cataluna held regional elections yesterday in which the leading party of the ruling tripartite, the regional section of the Socialist Party (PSC), lost 5 seats.  The opposition centre nationalist CiU gained 2 seats while the real story of the evening were the 3 seat gain by the ICV, a Left(as in Linkes Partei)-Green coalition, and the entrance of Ciutadans, a reformist left grouping famous for the appearance of its leader, Alberto Rivera, nude but for his cupped hand in a campaign poster, with 3 seats in the Generalitat, the regional parliament.  I will post this on the other side. (Nudity warning!)



Party  Ideology      2006%  '06 Seats '03 Seats  Change

CiU    Nationalist   31.52      48        46       +2

PSC    Socialist     31.16      37        42       -5

ERC    Nationalist   14.06      21        23       -2

PP     Conservative  10.64      14        15       -1

ICV    Left/Green    9.56       12         9       +3

Ciuta  Left/Reform   3.04       3          0       +3
dans  

From the diaries ~ whataboutbob


The Catalan Political Scene

After the 2003 elections, the Tripartite (PSC, ICV, and ERC) held 74 (54.8%) of the Generalitat's 135 seats, in this year they have emerged with a bare majority of 70 (51.9%) seats.  68 seats are needed to form a majority, and the current tripartite (with the possible addition of Ciutatans, for 73 seats (54.1%) of 135) is the only likely coalition.  A brief history of the Catalan political scene.

The CiU had tractionally been the dominant Catalan party with its  previous leader, Jordi Pujol, holding the position of President of the Generalitat from 1980-2003. In that year, the tripartite elected leader from the PSC, and the relations between PSOE, the Spanish Socialist Party, the Catalan Socialist affiliate (PSC), and the ERC (trans. Republican Nationalist Left) have been troubled.  ERC leader Josep Lluís Carod-Rovira has been something of a ticking time bomb for PSOE, creating scandal by meeting with ETA members in France before the 2004 elections, and being stubborn about the proposed autonomy statute, the Estatut.  

While the PP coexisted peacefully with the CiU and its centrist nationalism, over the past 10 years the PP has grown increasingly antagonistic to regional parties, and has developed into a party that looks fondly upon the enforced Castilian dominance of the Franco era.  During a 2005 protest against the proposed Basque autonomy statute organized by the PP, PP sympathizers carried a banner with the slogan "Rovira to the gas chamber."  Not to be outdone militant ERC youth sent a tape to the Catalan PP leader, Josep Pique, containing a death threat.   Catalunya has traditionally been the more peaceful of Spain's restive regions, yet the past year has seen a rise in tensions as Catalans assert claims to further autonomy.  The issue of Catalan fiscal independence has been particularly tricky, because transfers from wealthy Catalunya to poorer regions allow them to provide higher service levels than would be possible on their own.

Because of the anomosity between the PP and ERC, a grand right/nationalist coallition between the CiU, ERC, and PP is impossible.  The only possible pacting partner with the PP is CiU, and that combination only yields 62 of the needed 68 seats.  Because the long term stability of another tripartite between the PSC, ERC, and ICV is questonable, two other possibilities emerge.

A nationalist/left coallition, in this CiU would try to gain the support of the ERC by pressing for further Catalan autonomy.  This yields only 69 seats, the barest possible majority.  In order to be stable, the CiU would need to pact with the ICV as well, this would yield 81 seats, a stable majority.  The other possibility would be another grand coalition between the CiU and the PSC, while difficult growing anomosity between PSOE and the ERC, and pressure from the PSOE headquarters in Madrid to the PSC to rein in the ERC, make this possible it not plausible.

Again the real story of the night is the rise of the Left, with ICV holding more seats than it has since 1984, and the emergence of Ciutatans.  Speaking of which, here is the promised poster.

Translating the text, the top line says "Your party is born."  Below that it says "People are what matter to us."   The block of text in the middle says:

We don't care where you were born.
We don't care what language you speak.
We don't care what clothes you wear.
We care about you.

 

Display:
See my live election blogging in yesterday's Evening Open Thread.

Too much to comment on what you write, this should be fun.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 03:30:03 AM EST
Missed it.

Graduate school I'm finding is very time consuming, and tiring.  And random events keep happening to me, which I'm convinced is a function of my lack of sleep, and the subsequent seepage of my dream world into my awoke world.

So far this week, two false fire alarms.  (Drunk) brother calls upset about fiance leaving, lamentations about never finding a wife.  Father found to be full of shit (literally), they took my father to the hospital because he felt horrible and hadn't eaten for three days.  Turns out he had an impaction.  Have made sporadic attempts to complete lit review of previous 15 years of British Journal of Political Science.  Have finished 1 1/2 years. Shocked to find few authors acutally British, most American.  Called upon to help Asian friend on leave from countries election commission get certification to observe US election, friend is seriously unaware of American culture, sincerely hope he does nothing deportable while observing.

In this context the decision to spend 3 hours writing a diary instead of doing actual work was not hard.  I find the possibilities of an CiU-ERC coalition or a grand PSC-CiU coallition interesting, either departure from the tripartite has serios ramifications.

In the case of a CiU-ERC, there push for Catalan autonomy will grow stronger and the link to the greater Spanish political context may be severed.  If the PSC becomes marginalize to the gain of the ERC, then Cataluna becomes poltically distinct from Spain.  In the long term this augurs seperation as the development of a party system confined to the Catalan context can do for Cataluna what the dominace of the PNV has done in the Basque Country.

On the other hand, a ERC-CiU coalition means that the ERC is marginalized, and the link to the national context strenghtened.  If the ERC is made less important, Cataluna becomes reliably socialist in national elections.  With the dominance in Andalucia, PSOE would have a lock on 30+% of the Spanish vote, and with the PP grip on Madrid slipping, that means that the PP ceases to be a national party.  The marginalization of the PP to the Castilles could lead to 12-16 years of PSOE rule.  Like happened with Gonzalez, and the right would be forced to reorganize.  I forsee that an extreme blantly fascist right could develop like the French National Front, and in the long term the rump PP, likely reorganizing as Christian Democrats would move to the center.

Future Spanish political arrangments are more likely to look like Germany than Italy, with the gains of Zapatero consoldated.  Spain is no longer merely in Europe, it is of Europe.  And Zapatero is putting Spain at the forefront of a coming move to the left in European politics.

Blair's and Schroeder's third way has been repudiated, the Left will rise again.  The triumphalism of libertarian capitalism in the wake of the collapse of the Berlin wall is going to be called on.  And once it's deficiences are expose there will be hard times.  Returning to a sustainable (socially and economicaly) politics will mean significant change.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:27:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On the other hand, a ERC-CiU coalition means that the ERC is marginalized

You mean "PSC-CiU coalition".

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 05:04:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, it's 6 AM and I've been up for 24 hours.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 05:58:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Once you pass your qualifiers you'll be a much happier and prolific blogger.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:02:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm fairly certain I've figured out a simple way to describe 95% certainty to laymen, 2 standard deviations in a normal distribution.  If you draw them pictures they will understand.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:35:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And 99% confidence is 3 standard deviations.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:15:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you, mfm!!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 03:35:24 AM EST
A quick comment as I'm on holidays and I've not followed the election campaign because I was in the Canary Islands, and i'm leaving today again to Tarazona. So maybe migeru and mfm are better informed than myself.
The low turn-out is the most significant feature along with the ICV winning of three seats. Low turn-out because we have voted 5 times in 4 years, I think.
Ciutatans (C) is a confusion party, they said they are left but they've got support from la Cope, El Inmundo and Esperanza Aguirre. Somehow, they are more rabid (anti-catalanist) than catalan PP. It's only clear message is "Catalonia IS Spain". They attracted the pissed off vote (very young candidates, young voters, I guess), they've got nearly 89.567 votes out of total 2.959.027.
PSC lost because Maragall has big carisma and Montilla doesn't. CiU went up 1 seat and no more because its leader, Mas, is mediocre and they have run a dirty campaign. ICV was the party representing the good values of the "tripartit" and they went up in more than 40.000 votes.
Possible coalitions:
Again tripartit PSC + ERC + ICV
Grand Coalition CiU + PSC (ZP's favorite)
Nationalist Bloc CiU + ERC

Cheers, I've to run...

by amanda2006 on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:14:41 AM EST
Gracias.

Electoral fatigue.  Turnout tends to suffer when voters are asked to vote often, and the more elected positions the greater the decline.  I'm thinking of doing research in this area for my thesis.  In America we vote a minimum of 6 times in a 4 year cycle, with 20-30 positions elected in each election.

Your analysis of the Catalan political situation is spot on.

I did not know that Ciutadans had support from Cope and El Mundo, very odd.

I thought that ICV was part of the tripartit.

I think that in the long term it makes a huge difference whether the coalition is CiU-ERC or CiU-PSC.

If CiU-ERC, this will lead to a nationalist path, and Cataluna will become like the Basque country with local politics largely divorced from the national context.

This would also really piss off the PP, and more importantly sections of the military might feel the need to move to protect the unity of the country.  The Spanish (Catalans included) seem slow to rise, but when they do the response is dramatic and often traumatic.


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:43:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, ICV was part of the tripartit and the party more willing to form it again.
by amanda2006 on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:59:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
After the 2003 elections, the Tripartite (PSC, ICV, and ERC) held 89 (65.9%) of the Generalitat's 135 seats

Using the numbers you reproduced, they only got 74 seats (54.8%). I don't understand how you got 89.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:25:21 AM EST
Maybe you added PP by mistake?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:25:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Most have added PP by mistake.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 04:30:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the way you describe the parties' ideologies is too simplistic. Nationalism is an important issue and has in fact dominated the agenda over the past term. This is despite the fact that the government was left-wing and the opposition was right-wing. In fact, the 3-party coalition was described as progressive catalanist with emphasis on the catalanist. ICV was the glue without which PSC and ERC could not be together, and ERC was the kingmaker lest time as it will be this time around.

So, the Catalan political compass, like the Basque one, has for its main axis the nationalist one, and for its secondary axis the left-right one.

On this note, given the Social Democrats' acceptance of the conventional economic wisdom, the economic left-right axis is losing importance also in Spain as a whole, and being replaced by a nationalism axis. When the economic left-right distinction between the main parties fades, "left-right" begins to refer more and more to libertarian/authoritarian.

So, on the nationalist axis we have:

  • ERC: Independentist
  • CiU: Catalanist Nationalist
  • ICV: Catalanist Nationalist
  • PSC: Spanish Federalist
  • C: Catalanist Anti-nationalist
  • PP: Spanish Nationalist Anti-catalanist

And, on the standard "political compass":

  • ERC: Extreme left
  • ICV: Left/Green
  • PSC: Social Democrat
  • C: Centrist
  • CiU: Liberal + Christian Democrat coalition
  • PP: Extreme right

I am not the first to call the PP "Extreme right" (neoliberal/neofascist), even ABC, the traditional (Monarchist) right-wing newspaper has recently done so.

CiU is part of the Europe of the Nations group in the European Parliament. Like the Basque PNV they belong in the European People's Party more than the PP, but the PP shut them out, and they may have put their nationalism ahead of their Christian Democrat/Liberal ideology. CiU represents the traditional Calalan bourgeoisie.

ERC is the Catalan equivalent of Batasuna, extreme left independentists with  past ties to violent independentism (ERC under Heribert Barrera was the political arm of Terra Lliure, which was active in the 1970's) and current ties with the squatter/anarchist movement in Barcelona. ERC has a 25-30 year lead on Batasuna in their transformation into a mainstream political party, obviously.

The PSC's mistake has been to try to out-nationalist CiU in order to attain power. They have paid dearly as people have voted for the real thing, especially after Zapatero imposed the replacement of Maragall [of 1992 olympic fame] with Montilla, though bilingual, is a charnego (immigrant from outside Catalonia).

Finally, let us not forget that the Catalan Statute was hammered out in one long Saturday by Zapatero and CiU's Artur Mas, much to the surprise of Maragall and Unio's Duran-Lleida, and to the chagrin of ERC's Carod-Rovira, who then tightened his position until Maragall was forced to throw ERC out of the 3-party government. [Note: CiU is a coalition of Christian Democrat Unio, led by Duran who is the CiU leader in the Madrid parliament and might become a minister after the next election cycle; and Liberal Convergencia which is the senior coalition partner and led by Mas and formerly by Pujol who was Catalan President for 5 consecutive terms]

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 05:51:25 AM EST
Actually, on the Nationalist axis, a big tension between the PSOE and its member party PSC (for the PSOE is a federal party) is that the PSC is Federalist Catalanist and PSOE is Spanish Federalist.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:13:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The CiU faces little competition for Catalan right votes from the PP, but the ERC faces a more serious threat from the PSC.  In the event of an CiU-ERC coaliton, if the ERC is able to marginalize PSC by forcing Madrid to rein in the PSC affiliate, the may be able to shake free another 10-15% from the PSC vote total.  That would create a distinct, divergent nationalist, and left right cleavage.

Conceptualizing the vertical axis as the nationalist cleavage, and the horizontal as the left right you get the following:

                     Nationalist                    
                     ERC  |  CiU
               Left ==|== Right
                     PSC  |  PP                    
                   Anti-Nationalist    

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:25:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn formatting.

2nd try.

     Nationalist                
     ERC  |  CiU
     Left =|= Right
     PSC  |  PP                    
   Anti-Nationalist

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:31:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think ERC competes with ICV on the left, and that PSC is more threatened by Ciutadans.

The PSC is going to have its electoral space eaten away because it tries to be all things to all people while ICV, ERC, C, and CiU have a narrower focus and thus a clearer message.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:34:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On the Left/Right axis, I think that ERC is to the right of ICV, and to the left of PSC. If ERC moves to the center, they can draw from PSC among those who are Catalanist.  Because around 30% of the population are immigrants, charnegos, that suggest that if left nationalist were to gravitate towards the ERC, the PSC could lose 10-15%.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:51:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think ERC is more radical left while ICV is more on the green/refounded communist side. So I'd still call ERC extreme left. Green is in its own separate axis.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 07:05:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In fact, the 3-party coalition was described as progressive catalanist with emphasis on the catalanist.

Note also that the Left swept the National Senate elections in Catalonia last time (12 senators to 4 for CiU) but the way this was achieved was that the PSC did not run under the PSC/PSOE banner but under Entesa Catalana de Progrès [Catalan Progressive Entente, see this old comment of mine], in other words, the 3-party coalition under a progressive catalanist banner.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:27:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All true, I limited my ideology description and typology so that my chart wouldn't wrap the text to the next line.

What you say about the nationalist element superceding the left/right element is important.  In the Basque Country, the PNV has no credible left opponent. The PCTV/EHAK is a marginal force, not of the relative equivalence of that ERC has to CiU.  ERC is the kingmaker, a nationalist coalition would render national national poltics meaningless in Catalan elections.

The development of divergent political systems like this will lead to the divergence of the Spanish regions, and possibly the disintegration of Spain in the long term. That would entail Balkanization, not a bright prospect for Western Europe.  Thus only a CiU-PSC coallition is acceptable. No one will pact with the PP save possibly the CiU, that means the two coalitions above are the only viable options.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:14:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"No one will pact with the PP save possibly the CiU, that means the two coalitions above are the only viable options."

I hope I am right to think that not even CiU would dare pact with the PP, given the acrimony against anything catalan they have created.  


Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:29:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mas has even notarised his intention not to make a deal with the PP.

Honestly, if the National PP had not been so rabidly anti-catalan, Josep Pique could have taken a catalanist anti-nationalist position and done better at the expense of Ciutadans.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:36:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the Basque Country, the PNV has no credible left opponent.

EA is the credible left opponent of the PNV. It is a splinter party founded by the former PNV lehendakari Carlos Garaikoetxea and has in recent years been running in a coalition as PNV/EA, but I think the coalition is splitting apart again.

Aralar is also a credible left threat to the PNV, but if Batasuna does refound itself and renounce violence Aralar is likely to disappear by merging into it or into the PSE (as Euzkadiko Ezquerra once did).

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:56:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I heeded MfM's advice and put ICV to the left of ERC.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 05:01:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The best news for me is that the PP has painted itself into a corner in Catalunya and I celebrate:

Their constant raging against everything has lost them any chance to be considered a major party and a part of any coalition.  Getting <11% of the vote in such an important region, after getting a close second on the national elections of 2004, should tell them something.  But then, again, rational and social are not their games.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:22:32 AM EST
The PP is a coalition of Liberals, Christian Democrats, and Spanish Nationalists, all of them in tame and virulent forms. It needs to break up.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 06:45:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree and just maybe, they are breaking themselves apart from the inside, too.  Even robots break down.

The factions you mention make me do double-thinks everytime, LOL:

Liberals: in the strangest sense.
Christian Democrats: an oxymoron in a secular state.
Spanish Nationalists: redundant.

It seems like a whole another re-definition of terms in their parallel planet.


Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 08:37:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Christian Democrats: an oxymoron in a secular state.

Spain is not a secular state, look at the contraversy concerning mandatory religous instruction in public schools.  Spain is a Catholic country, it's just that the people don't seem to give a damn.  So much for the value of enforced indoctrination.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 12:05:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the lunchtime news now, the PP chosen robot, Ana Pastor, states:

"This is President Zapatero´s first great loss at the polls.  The first great loss.  And may be an omen of the next general elections."

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 09:11:59 AM EST
Quite possibly, but is this also an omen of how well the PP's strategy of confrontation is going to work out?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 09:15:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Short... because my brand new computer also crashed in my office ( I have been one month and a half without computer... and counting...the laptop should be back soon...I hope) and I am writing from a family computer.

Two things. the important thing to track is the loss of vote (in total). PSC lost a quarter of a million vote...main reason: Maragall wa snot there , the previous president...and all the loss was from spanish speaker in the red citites aroudn Barcelona. As weird as it can seem, nobody mobilize more voters among non-catalans and charnegos than Maragall (the typical example of long-lasting catalan family). Yes.. Maragall (as Pujol) were unique figures...they can get 250 kvotes... I do not know who sell Zapatero that the extra votes of Maragall came mainly from the catalan burgueosy...stupid, stupid, dumb and nerd. Maragall is a more-than-party figure, a media crack in  the red cities of catalonia... A faaous radio figure called Justo MOlinero knows it.. the two figures than can carry 250-400 extra kvotes are only Maragall an another catalan PSC politician called Manuela de Madre, they were always on the air during the elections, ubiquosly.
On the other hand CIU also lost 100 kvotes... and this was indeed surprising..nobody expected.. why they left the party and stayed home?? what heppened??? Zapatero expected those votes for CIU because he would have prefered a stronger showing of CIU so as to make a strong PSC in the opposition (yeah we all know that ZP did not want their own party to win absolutely but remain strong).. now PSC is a key to make the government.. and if PSC makes a fomral agreement with CIu.. then PSC will bleed even more.

And one last comment. Behind Ciutadans there is a group of justice pro-Franco intelectuals belonging to the Law faculties in the catalan university. The main driving force behind Ciutadans is the hard-core right...wiht the hope that some day they can get votes from PSC. On the social-economy front it is not clear if they are center or left or right, nobody knows what they stand for beside trying to erode the left spanish speaker front in the future

That was all...short....

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 10:35:21 AM EST
too fast

wher eit says "were in the air durign the elections" I menat "during previous elections" when they were in the forefront. Not in these last elections...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 10:36:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And one last comment. Behind Ciutadans there is a group of justice pro-Franco intelectuals belonging to the Law faculties in the catalan university. The main driving force behind Ciutadans is the hard-core right...wiht the hope that some day they can get votes from PSC. On the social-economy front it is not clear if they are center or left or right, nobody knows what they stand for beside trying to erode the left spanish speaker front in the future

WTF are Arcadi Espada and especially Albert Boadella doing in Ciutadans, then?

Via Escolar...

La Moqueta: Polònia vota... (1.11.06)La Moqueta: Poland votes... (1.11.06)

  • Ciutadans parece que obtiene una mayoría de sus votos en los graneros del PSC (primer cinturón, o cinturón rojo, del área metropolitana). L'Hospitalet, Cornellà, Santa Coloma. En todos, el retroceso del PSC está muy correlacionado con el voto a Ciutadans. Sus 3 diputados son de Barcelona.
  • PERO cuando miramos sólo Barcelona, Ciutadans obtiene más votos cuanto más rico es el distrito: en los barrios obreros, de 'inmigración', obtiene un 4%, mientras que en los de clase alta supera el 6%. Y de manera progresiva (voto ciutadans -> renta). En estos casos, el PP retrocede en favor de Ciutadans.

  • Ciutadans appears to obtain a majority of its votes in the granaries of the PSC (the first belt, or red belt, in the metropolitan area). L'Hospitalet, Cornellà, Santa Coloma. In all of them, the retreat of the PSC is veri correlated with the vote to Ciutadans. Its 3 representatives are from [the constituency of] Barcelona.
  • BUT when we look only to [the city of] Barcelona, Ciutadans obtains more votes the wealthier the district is: in the working class neighbourhoods, those of 'immigration', it obtains 4%, while in those of upper class it exceeds 6%. And progressively (vote to ciutadans -> income). In these cases, the PP retreats in favour of Ciutadans.
  • Don't ask me why people call Catalans Polacos [Poles], it's one of those Spanish things...

    Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
    by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 10:54:53 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Arcadi is spanish nationalistic...also Boadella...but they have distanced themselves a little bit, they like the idea of the party but not the elite which is presently behind it. So, they will support it fromt he distance.... and I will not be surprised if Arcadi ends up in la COPE... Boadella is always  a mistery.

    PP also lost votes in the red cities. PP vote is very loyal.. still they lost 80 kvotes.. the same number that voted for Ciutadans.. I would say that more than 3/4 votes of ciutadasn come from PP... may be 4/5. But in the future, of course, they want to get votes from PSC... they need a trojan horse.. someone that can appear in the catalan media and defend more spanish nationalistic positions from a psuude-left.. like the Green party in the US funded by the Republicans. But the start-up of the party are the COPE listeners..most of them spanish speakers in the red-cities. COPE listeners hate Pique, the catalan PP president.

    In the future of course, they could mobilize the left-vote.. specially without Maragall.. the only no-charnego (and chernego for that matter) who spent all the weekend for a decade living in red spanish-speaker neighborhood among inmigrant families. And with M. de Madre out because of the serious illness she has... I predict tough time for PSC in Catalonia..and for Zapatero. I would call it the MAragall blunder... who was the stupid!!! IT is like Chavez in Andalucia. The PSOE vote is A Zapatero-Chavez vote, and in Catalonia  it was a Zapater-Maragall vote... you get rid of one.. you get rid of the hegemony.

    A pleasure

    I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

    by kcurie on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 11:28:49 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Don't ask me why people call Catalans Polacos [Poles], it's one of those Spanish things...

    Perhaps for the same reason those ion Barcelona call the Arab slum the Barri Xine, trans. Chinatown.

    Arab, Chinese, once you cease to be white Europeans, the rest all look the same. Bleck!


    And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

    by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 12:10:56 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    The Barcelona slum has been called Barrio Chino before there were any Arab immigrants in it.

    Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
    by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 12:46:11 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Ciutadans is not an anti-nationalist party. Ciutadans is non nationalist.

    Ciutadans is not right wing. Ciutadans is what PSC should be now and were in the beginning.

    Most of Ciutadans voters are ex-PSC voters. We also get votes from people who voted PP in previous elections. These people are not extreme right, they voted PP because it was the only non nationalist party in Catalonia. Now these people feel better represented by Ciutadans.

    "And one last comment. Behind Ciutadans there is a group of justice pro-Franco intellectuals belonging to the Law faculties in the catalan university."
    kcurie

    This is quite surrealistic. How can be pro-Franco Boadella, who was Court martialled in Franco´s time for offences to the Spanish Army? He had to escape to France and could not return to Spain until Franco died.
    Most of the other "intellectuals" were anti-Franco fighters during the dictatorship.

    Ciutadans is being accused of the most surrealistic crimes because none of the other parties can find any real reason to criticise our ideas. Many of us suffered oppression in Franco´s time and we are experiencing now something similar but in Catalan instead of in Spanish.

    In Catalonia we are suffering this nationalist oppression not because this is what people want but because is the best way some political parties have found to get political power as a way of obtaining economic power. At this time it is a nonsense to talk about left and right in Catalonia. What matters is money. Saura, of ICV (very left wing according to themselves) believes that solidarity with the rest of Spain has limits, and they are the ones to set those limits. This left wing man has as his favourite restaurant Via Veneto, one of the most exclusive restaurants in Barcelona. Only the richest businessmen in Barcelona can afford this type of restaurant. Saura is not ashamed of being seen there.

    Before Ciutadans existed, the other 5 parties were simply exchanging seats in Parliament or City Councils. It was like a show were everybody knew their part. They could have arguments at the Parliament, but after that they could be seen having lunch together or sharing businesses. This received the name of the "Catalan Oasis" or "Catalan Matrix". Nothing happened here, but suddenly a new group showed up, Ciutadans. Immediately all members of PUC (Partido Unico Catalan --> PSC, ICV, CiU, ERC) started feeling panic. They started organising a boycott in the media to all news about Ciutadans. No interviews, nothing. Only El Mundo and La Cope allowed us to speak. Obviously they were interested in a party that could take votes from PSC.

    In the end the Internet was the only means of sending the message to possible voters. People are so really fed up in Catalonia that even with the boycott the message arrived to some people. We got 4.5% in the city of Barcelona, 5% in Cornella, 7% in Castelldefels and for the first time the official media had to accept that Ciutadans existed.

    Now more and more people are getting the message and i n the next elections we will probably do much better.

    But the "Catalan Oasis (PUC)" is really frightened. They need to destroy us as soon as possible. More than 44% of catalans refused to vote because they cannot stand the PUC + PP anymore. Now PSC and PP have reached an agreement to try to destroy Albert Rivera, our president. In the future we will have all sort of attacks but they are not going to win.

    by bakunin on Mon Nov 27th, 2006 at 01:37:52 PM EST
    Thanks, and welcome/bienvenido/benvingut to ET.

    How did you find us?

    Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

    by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 27th, 2006 at 01:41:57 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    What is your perspective on Ciutadans' intentions to run in national elections, or in other Autonomous Communities (such as Madrid)?

    Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
    by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 27th, 2006 at 01:44:56 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Hello, I found this place just by chance.

    It is going to be difficult to do the same out of Catalonia because here we have all the elements to find people who cannot stand anything anymore. In the rest of Spain it is going to be a little more complicated. The Basc Country is almost impossible because here they organise press campaigns against us, but in the Basc Country they set fire to your car or business or something worse.

    Madrid could be the next step because voters or the left are very tired of having the politicians they have. Maybe municipal elections is a more realistic target. Salamanca seems to be a very good opportunity.

    by bakunin on Mon Nov 27th, 2006 at 02:21:44 PM EST


    Display:
    Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]