by Colman
Thu Nov 2nd, 2006 at 05:32:58 AM EST
I believe that these are the German government figures rather than the OECD version, which is rather lower:
The Federal Labour Office said this morning that unemployment fell a seasonally adjusted 67,000 in October from September - the sharpest decline since July and more than the consensus forecast for a fall of 20,000 in a Reuters poll of economists.
No economist had forecast a decline bigger than 40,000. The unadjusted jobless total fell by nearly 153,000 during the month to 4.085 million.
The unemployment rate in October was 10.4 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis and 9.8 per cent on an unadjusted basis, falling below the psychologically important 10 per cent barrier for the first time since November 2002.(Ireland.com)
Business sentiment rose as well. I'm sure it's just cyclical.
Update [2006-11-2 6:35:29 by Colman]:: The ILO/OECD compatible statistic is 8.1%, 8.3% seasonally adjusted, as far as I can tell from the press releases referenced in comments.
Meanwhile, no doubt as a result of all the reforms put in place (you know, the ones we're being lectured that we haven't done):
The manufacturing industry purchasing managers’ index for the 12-country region rose to a three month high of 57.0 in October, up from 56.6 in September.
“Euro area production output rebounded in October, confounding growing pessimism about the short term outlook,” said Kevin Gaynor, economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, which publishes the index with NTC Economics.
Separate data showed a sharp fall in German unemployment, which fell 67,000 in October on a seasonally-adjusted basis to 4.35m, cutting the jobless rate from 10.6 per cent of the workforce to 10.4 per cent.
The upbeat data - in contrast to that of the US - strengthens the case for further interest rate increases, even though eurozone inflation fell this week to just 1.6 per cent, the lowest in seven years, on the back of falling oil prices. (FT.com)
The ECB is expected to hold rates steady for the moment, but more rises are likely next year.
