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Countdown to $100 oil (36) - Free game! win champagne! no risk!

by Jerome a Paris Mon Nov 20th, 2006 at 06:46:54 PM EST

With oil prices currently at their lowest since I started my countdown series, I figured I'd let those that have argued against my negative views on oil prices enjoy the day, and remind them of the opportunity to win an easy bottle of champagne.

Each year, I'm offering a bottle of champagne to the kossack (or eurotribber) with the best bet for the price of oil on 31 December. These threads were here:

Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 2006 (Eurotrib)
Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 2006 (DailyKos)

Now I'm offering all the opportunity, with just 6 weeks to go, to bet again - or for the first time.

The rule is simple: just post the price you expect to see for the WTI, as quoted in New York on the last business day of the year. If you had bet before, this bet will cancel the old one. If you hadn't, well, here's your chance.

The closest bet wins a bottle of champagne, sent by me to wherever you tell me. Last year, Meteor Blades won. This year it could be you.

It's free! There's no risk! No credit card needed!

:: ::

Earlier "Countdown Diaries":
Countdown to $100 oil (35) - peak oil: the last skeptics capitulate (CERA)
Countdown to $100 oil (34) - Oil major CEO calls for demand reduction
Countdown to $100 oil (33) - Below zero
Countdown to $100 oil (32) - peak oil is, like, so over. Not!
Countdown to $100 oil (31) - $15 oil? The cornucopians are fighting back
Countdown to $100 oil (30) - senior politico fears looming oil wars
Countdown to $100 oil (29) - Alaska joins axis of evil (unreliable oil suppliers)
Countdown to $100 oil (28) - New records suggest more to come
Countdown to $100 oil (27) - 'Mission Accomplished' - High oil prices are here to stay
Countdown to $100 oil (26) - Time to bet again (eurotrib)
Countdown to $100 oil (26) - Time to bet again (dKos)
Countdown to $100 oil (25) - Iran vows that oil prices will not go down
Countdown to $100 oil (24) - What markets are telling us about future energy prices
Countdown to $100 oil (23) - Running out of natural gas in North America
Countdown to 100$ oil (22) - gas shortages in the UK - 240$/boe
Countdown to $100 oil (21A) - The 4 biggest oil fields in the world are in decline *
Countdown to 100$ oil (21bis) - long term vs short term worries (dKos)
Countdown to 100$ oil (21) - 8-page extravaganza in the Independent: 'we're doomed'
Countdown to 100$ oil (20) - Meteor Blades is Da Man in 2005
Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 2006 (Eurotrib)
Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 2006 (DailyKos)
Countdown to 100$ oil (18) - OPEC happy with oil above 50$
Countdown to 100$ oil (17) - Does it matter politically? A naked appeal for your support
Countdown to 100$ oil (16) - We'll know on Monday
Countdown to 100$ oil (15) - the impact on your electricity bill
Countdown to 100$ oil (14) - Greenspan acknoweldges peak oil
Countdown to 100$ oil (13) - Katrina strikes / refinery crisis
Countdown to 100$ oil (12) - Al-Qaeda, oil and Asian financial centers
Countdown to 100$ oil (11) - it's Greenspan's fault!
Countdown to 100$ oil (10) - Simmons says 300$ soon - and more
Countdown to 100$ oil (9) - I am taking bets (eurotrib)
Countdown to 100$ oil (9) - I am taking bets (dKos)
Countdown to 100$ oil (8) - just raw data
Countdown to 100$ oil (7) - a smart solution: the bike
Countdown to 100$ oil (6) - and the loser is ... Africa
Countdown to 100$ oil (5) - OPEC inexorably raises floor price
Countdown to 100$ oil (4) - WSJ wingnuts vs China
Countdown to 100$ oil (3) - industry is beginning to suffer
Countdown to 100$ oil (2) - the views of the elites on peak oil
Countdown to 100$ oil (1) (eurotrib)
Countdown to 100$ oil (1) (dKos)

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Mon Nov 20th, 2006 at 07:14:51 PM EST
$58.20 based on today's futures market. Although if OPEC can get its act together the price should go up before then...
by asdf on Mon Nov 20th, 2006 at 11:18:39 PM EST
You are going to allow predictions to be made 42 days from the end of the year to be compared with those that were made in December of last year?!  That is like asking people to make bets on the World Cup at the beginning of the tournament, and then when you get down to the finals, and everyone knows it's France or Italy, letting everyone change their bets!  Obviously that is not fair.  Why are you changing the rules at the end of the contest?
by wchurchill on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 12:41:45 AM EST
I'll check in any case (and announce) who had the best bet from last year. We'll see about the champagne!

wchurchill, you've been missed around here!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 02:17:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good, that is a fair way to do it--basically two contests if I read you right.  The original, and the "stretch run".  For some reason I find annual projections more interesting--I guess because I do them all the time,,,,annual sales targets, annual budgets, etc.  

Thanks for your comment.  I have a lot going on right now, with the favorable stock markets, and considering some new opportunities.  I've lurked at ET when I could, making the odd comment here and there.

I'm going to stick with my original SWAG on oil, Scientific Wild Ass Guess, that is:

1.Highest: $80 due to some unrest in Middle East, but also just normal variation around the mean.
2.Year-end: $58.
Looks like I'm in the running, but may be edged out at the end of the day.
by wchurchill on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 11:39:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
73.5 :)

We Norwegians need your hard-earned cash!

by Trond Ove on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 01:58:49 AM EST
123 bucks

Do I want the champers or a global meltdown? Tough call. But with Darth Cheney still hovering near the button, who knows?

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 04:11:27 AM EST
I'm going to keep my guesses as is.  So far the peak price of WTI is pretty close @ $77.75 vs about $78.5 and the prediction that nat gas would puke due to overproduction are pretty good.  I'd have never put a low on Nat gas down in the $4.5 range though.  

with a gun to my head, i doubt $55 on Dec 31.  Maybe on the day the Jan contract expires (Dec 20 or so).  not at year end.  If OPEC fails to cut production we'll be much lower than $55.  If things keep bumping along, there will likely be a cold snap at some point in Dec that gets the price for the Feb contract back up over $60.  It's a crap shoot.

Re: Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 200 (none / 0)
2006 WAGs (wild ass guesses)  All front month WTI on the day.

1)  Highest touch on WTI at any point intra day
$ 77.75.  Iraq civil war stops exports and sets oil world on edge.

   2.  Year end $55.00

   3.  Year High  $14.5, year end  $9.00.  

Both Henry Hub in normal units.  Nat gas will slump in 2006 as drilling will go wild, Hedges for petchem and fertilizer guys will be gone so production will slump and therefore demand for nat gas drop.  Ditto electricity generation.  nat gas turbines aren't economic at these prices so demand will wane.

4)  $100 WTI won't occur until 2009.  

by HiD on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 04:13:36 AM EST
All right, I'll bite. If I average your Countdown figure, HiD's countdown figure and a current price of $59, I predict $69.67.

I could probably do better if I had a dartboard.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 05:23:34 AM EST
Okay, predicting trouble in Iran as Repubs try to squeeze some last minute killin' in before loosing congressional power, some mess in them straits, not full scale war, but enuf to rattle everyone real good. Oil price on Dec. 31, $93.23
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 05:36:14 AM EST
I tried to contact both CERA and Campbell, to get a shaded picture of the situation. But without success. ;-)
So be it !

------------- If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear (Orwell)
by Baikal (baikal@no-log.org) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 07:52:04 AM EST

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 09:23:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My last bet was like this:

It all boils down to if the Americans attack Iran. On one hand, that would be insane. On the other hand, the neocons are insane. But I still can't bring myself to believe they will really attack. So...

Highest: $86/bl in October, after continued nastiness everywhere topped with a big hurricane in GOM.

Year-end: $77/bl

Natgas highest: $21/mbtu after the October hurricane

No $100 oil this year, because there will be no war with Iran (please!)

If that damn hurricane had arrived I would have won, I am sure of it. But there was no hurricane and prices fell. Now that the spare capacity is increasing I see no reason for a price increase, especially if the winter is warm.

So I'll lower my bet to $52.52.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 09:55:15 AM EST
Now I have hedged my bets. If the price of oil falls, I might get a bottle of Champagne. If it increases, I make money and can buy a bottle of Champagne. ;)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Fri Nov 24th, 2006 at 11:42:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it will drift down for a while yet, but may be approaching bottom. so $58.30

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 11:42:46 AM EST

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