Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Dutch General Elections Diary (in progress)

by Nomad Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 10:33:18 AM EST

22 November 2006: General Elections in the Netherlands. Voting started at 07:30 and lasted until 21:00.

Final Results
Total Turnout at 80.1%, marginally higher than last elections.

With 150 seats to distribute:
CDA: 41 - loss of 3 seats
PVDA: 33 - loss of 9 seats
SP: 25 - gain of 16 seats
VVD: 22 - loss of 6 seats
PVDV(Wilders): 9 - gain of 9 seats
Groen Links: 7 - loss of 1 seat
ChristenUnie: 6 - gain of 3 seats
D66: 3 - loss of 3 seats
SGP: 2 - stable
PVDD: 2 - gain of 2 seats
Fortuyn: 0 - loss of 8, total obliteration
EenNl: 0

The loss of PvdA and boost of SP will make coalition formation hard. As pointed out in the comments, the most logical combination is a CDA/PvdA/ChristenUnie government, however, it's impossible to immediately go around SP. At the latest interview Balkenende hinted at being open-minded about a CDA-SP-PvdA partnership. Very interesting. The big plus: a notable move to a more social government, the Scary People Party of Rutte and Verdonk is likely out of the government, and the Fortuyn party is completely gone. The big draw: the rise of Wilders, the most intolerant party since Fortuyn. Although Wilders practically replaces the Fortuyn faction, consider that Wilders is even more intolerant and libertarian than the Fortuyn party ever pretended to be.

Recent posts on the topic (Diary Whoring At Work for Your Delight):
The Dutch Political Parties: Overview
The Dutch Political Left
The Dutch Political Right
See also: An Introduction to the Dutch political system (Thanks Frank!)

From the diaries - whataboutbob


Exit Polls from NOS (from: Peil.nl - pdf!) and RTL4 (here) showed huge differences.

Projections
--> Legend: NOS, [RTL4], (Current Seats) <--
CDA: 43 [38] (44)
PvdA: 35 [34] (42)
VVD: 21 [20] (28)
SP: 24 [30(!!!)] (9)
Fortuyn: 0 [0] (8)
GroenLinks: 8 [6] (8)
D66: 2 [2] (6)
ChristenUnie: 5 [7] (3)
SGP: 2 [2] (2)
Pro-Animal Party: 3 [2] (0)
EenNl: 1 [1] (0)
Wilders: 6 [8] (0)

Curious facts at 20:30:
-Participation at 18:00: 60% (still below 2003)
-The "emigrant" vote is high: 30.000 out of 600.000
-The "allochtonous" participation is also polled high
- The county Breukelen had the national premiere of voting at a gas-station, the Minister of Democratisation and D66 leader Pechtold was the one to vote there first.
- Wouter Bos of PvdA forgot his correct voting card and wasn't allowed to vote until he retrieved his card.
- According to the NOS, the red pencil is used in 34 counties/voting districts. That'd mean voting machines are used for the remaining 224 counties.
- More than 12 million people can cast their vote
- The "youth vote" comprises about 18% and the "elederly vote" about the same.
- Around 2.5 million people watched yesterday's final debate between Balekende, Bos, Rutte, Halsema, Marijnissen and Rouvoet. (Note: no D66!)
- The debate was followed by classical Dutch caberet with one of the Dutch veterans: Freek de Jonge who mocked every political party and politician - but especially Verdonk's policy
- The We Don't Trust Voting Machines responsible for the drive to replace unsuitable voting machiens delivered 490 apple pies to the voting locations in Amsterdam (1 pie for 1 location)
- A man in Simpelveld brought along a found grenade to the voting location which caused a brief stop to the voting process. Clearly a case of Dutch multitasking.

Political Scorecard
Inspired by someone's post:


# Partij voor de Dieren (Pro-animal party) -- Hard Left
The Animal Mob
Stands for:
  • Working towards an end of the bio-industry and stimulate animal friendly farms
  • A stop to cruel animal treatment (castration, ritual killing, bull fights in Spain)
  • Phasing out lab animals entirely
  • Ban hunting

# SP (Socialists) -- Hard Left
The classic protest alternative formed into a strong grassroots driven socialist, conservative alternative at the left
Stands for:
  • opposition of privatisation of public services
  • equality and solidarity
  • a strong, small-scale organised and social health care
  • protectionist on globalisation

# GroenLinks (Greens) -- Left
The progressive heart of the liberal left. Green, and Left. What the name says.
Stands for:
  • individual freedoms (euthanasia, abortion, gay rights, etc)
  • emancipation
  • focus on education
  • equality in wealth distribution
  • balance between economic growth and ecological/ environmental responsibility

# PvdA (Labour) - Centre-Left
Social-democrats. The biggest centre-left party - embraces liberal, humanist and feminist ideas, modernizing as it went along from the classic blue collar party
Stands for:
  • Welfare state
  • Investing in health care
  • stopping liberalisation of the housing market (rented appartments)
  • general pardon for asylum seekers

# Democraten 66 - D66 (Social Liberals) -- Centre-left
D66 formed the third (and last) party of the government coalition.
Stands for:
  • A balance between market economics and governmental intervention
  • Liberal values
  • Democratisation of the system: public referenda, elected mayors, elected minister president
  • Increased government stimulation for education and innovation

# CDA (ChristianDemocrats) -- Centre
A coalition party of the current government, Christian in origin, readily embraces members adhering other faiths than Christian ones.
Stands for:
  • representation of smaller enterpreneurship and workers (the latter now mostly forgotten)
  • Stewardship of government
  • Conservative values in regard of prostitution, drugs and euthanasia
  • Family values and tolerance

# VVD (Liberals) -- Cerntre right
Formed the second important leg to the current government, the Scary People Party
Stands for:
  • a welfare state but only to a degree
  • progressive in individual rights
  • market liberalisation and private entrepreneurship
  • harsh policy on immigrants and asylum seekers
  • a boon to corporalism (someone has to say it!!!)

# ChristenUnie (ChristianUnion) -- Centre right/left
More conservative than VVD and CDA, dominantly led by Christian values, but remarkably social.
Stands for:
  • Social welfare (similar to SP and PvdA)
  • Strong family values
  • Abandonment of softdrugs tolerance, abortion and euthanasia
  • Green environmental policy

# SGP (Political Reformed Party) -- Centre right
The Dutch Christian Fundies.

# Fortuyn (Fortuynists) -- Hard right  
Good riddance.

# EénNL (Hard-Right, former Fortuynists) -- Hard right
Ex-Fortuynist and Ex-VVD join forces
Stands for:

  • Reduction of government
  • Abolishment gasoline tax
  • Legalisation soft drugs
  • Limiting access to Dutch market for foreign workers

# Partij voor de Vrijheid  (Wilders Group, former VVD)  -- Hard right
Stands for:
  • Extreme libertarian policy
  • Opposing EU enlargement, scrapping EU parliament
  • Tax reduction, reducing government yadda yadda
  • Banning building mosques for 5 years
  • Complete Immigration Stop for immigrants from Turkey and Morocco
  • Compulsory bleached hair and illunacy


Latest Polls
Seats in 150-seat Parliament
Barometer
Peil.nl:

Display:
Broken link fixed, little explanation added to the last graph. Expect frontpage promotion in the evening.

It would be good if you added hours. Such as, from when until when voting booths are open(AFAIK from 7:30 to 21:00), when can first results be expected, and when the final.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:59:05 AM EST
It was getting late (early some might say) when I wrapped it up. I'll add the details asap.
by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:17:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nomad, a big thank you for all the work you have done on this - Left, Right, Overviews, and now this thread - super excellent work. bravo. I was going to promote the Left & Right Diaries later...but since you have linked them to this, I will make sure to put this up in the later afternoon. (Now...I really need to go read all this over in some detail!!)

And by the way, has there been any pre-election polling about who may win, etc??

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:52:29 AM EST
See bottom of diary. There was more discussion about possible coalitions in the previous two diaries.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:40:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Too much in fact. Much too much too much. It has wrecked half of this otherwise "ordinary" media circus. More than half the questions levelled at the politicians were about the campaign and possible coalition partners based on the recent poll numbers so big and so much and how they and their children and their pets felt about it. Drool, drool, slobber, slobber, bad media. Argh.

Old D66 trophy Van Mierlo has cried foul on the wholesale detraction of issues by the media's fascination with the pollsters. Not that anyone will listen to him anymore...

Pppppppling!

I think I need to lie down for a moment.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 07:12:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you Nomad - first time, thanks to you, that I am interested in the "niederländischen" :-) Elections.
by Fran on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 12:14:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Done the job. Click bam zappo. Finally I voted on something really green. Here's hoping for another lizard. Hurray.


"You mean, it comes from a world of lizards?"

"No," said Ford, who by this time was a little more rational and coherent than he had been, having finally had the coffee forced down him, "nothing so simple. Nothing anything like to straightforward. On its world, the people are people. The leaders are lizards. The people hate the lizards and the lizards rule the people."

"Odd," said Arthur, "I thought you said it was a democracy."

"I did," said Ford. "It is."

"So," said Arthur, hoping he wasn't sounding ridiculously obtuse, "why don't the people get rid of the lizards?"

"It honestly doesn't occur to them," said Ford. "They've all got the vote, so they all pretty much assume that the government they've voted in more or less approximates to the government they want."

"You mean they actually vote for the lizards?"

"Oh yes," said Ford with a shrug, "of course."

"But," said Arthur, going for the big one again, "why?"

"Because if they didn't vote for a lizard," said Ford, "the wrong lizard might get in. Got any gin?"

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:43:09 AM EST
It thought this new york time piece on the Dutch elections was excellent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/21/world/europe/22cnd-dutch.html

Do other European countries have this internet Voting Compass craze?

by Indrah on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:51:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ooops my post wasn't really supposed to be a reply to the lizards (although it is funny)
by Indrah on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:55:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There was lots and lots of internet matching services before the swedish election. There was also some debunking by checking what happened if you answered neutral / no answer across the line...

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 07:35:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks! May I have another request: once the resutls start coming in, would those reporting them also focus on participation numbers? Methinks change in participation is essential but often missing from analyses of election results.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 09:10:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well I voted this morning. Go labour!
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 07:15:48 AM EST
by Frank (wijsneus-aht-gmail-doht-com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 10:05:13 AM EST
Indeed a terrific diary. Thanks for the reminder.

This is a good momemnt to expose people interested in Dutch politics to as much material as possible...

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 11:50:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Great work, Nomad. Really colossal. Thanks.

Do people usually vote a lot in the evening? In other words, is 39% in mid-afternoon a good participation level?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 12:02:37 PM EST
There's often a spike in the evening. Check out the new participation level: 2 percent below 2003 participation.

I just heard on radio that the Internet Voting Compass are still massively visited: the undecideds are starting to feel the pinch of the deadline.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 12:06:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's more than I expected. To give an overview:

Election Turnout

  1. 79,9%
  2. 79,0%
  3. 73,2%
  4. 78,7%
  5. 80,3%

If we manage 78% it's pretty neat, I think.

(I will be part of the 22%, though, something about voting from abroad and not being informed by the govt.)

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 12:30:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just voted 20 minutes ago (in a referendum which is at the same time as the elections) and there was a very long line.

You have a normal feeling for a moment, then it passes. --More--
by tzt (tzt) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 01:57:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Best elections preview I've seen in a long time.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
by r------ on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 01:01:44 PM EST
Ugh, this is not good...
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:17:15 PM EST
What, exactly?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, didn't realise the exit polls were added...

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:21:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
People actually voted for Wilders!

You have a normal feeling for a moment, then it passes. --More--
by tzt (tzt) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:22:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know. Worst possible outcome. No election surprises after all. The country is split, polarisation continues.
by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:24:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Four more years of that moron..ugh
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:26:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A 75 majority coalition is needed. Based on the exit polls of 21:00

A left government of SP - GroenLinks - Pvda: 67
A right government of CDA - VVD: 64
A centre coalition of CDA - Pvda: 78, very slim.

Dreadful.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:28:18 PM EST
Yeah. this is very bad
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:30:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Based on the RTL4 exit polls:

Pvda-GroenLinks-SP: 70
CDA-VVD: 58
CDA-PvdA: 72 (!!)

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:41:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you think these results would lead to, as there'd be no majority with any reasonable combinations?

You have a normal feeling for a moment, then it passes. --More--
by tzt (tzt) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:43:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes! and when will we know the results for certain? Later tonite? Or tomorrow morning?

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:46:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think in about an hour / 90 minutes, the results will be fairly certain.

As for which coalition is possible, no idea really...It's all over the place....left is possible, right is possible, but with a lot of parties...2 parties might be possible with cda/pvda, but that's a slim majority...

ugh

by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:48:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes! and when will we know the results for certain? Later tonite? Or tomorrow morning?

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:46:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Later tonight. I'll come back with the results.

As for what's going to happen, it's still an open field. What's clear is that Balkenende (CDA) will remain in the government (Gah!!!) and SP should be invited to the negotiation table, seeing such a boost. Terrible, terrible.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:50:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No idea!!! This is crazy! We've two major tv stations using different polling agencies and their predictions don't match at all!! Who's right?

But if CDA remains the biggest, they will start the negotiations. Balkenende IV is basically fact.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:46:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ugh, hell
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:48:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Balkenende IV is basically fact.

Ik heb een biertje nodig. :-P

You have a normal feeling for a moment, then it passes. --More--
by tzt (tzt) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:50:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think I'll go straight to the whiskey. Well, it's not mine, so maybe not.
by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:53:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Adding either the CU or GroenLinks to a CDA/PvdA coalition would be a possibility.

But let's wait. It's not possible for both exit polls to be right, after all.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:05:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The exit polls of NOS and RTL4 are hugely different!! I'll add them to the diary as well. This could become a weird night after all.
by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:31:45 PM EST
RTL is saying 30 for SP??!

You have a normal feeling for a moment, then it passes. --More--
by tzt (tzt) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:41:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah....
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:43:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rest of the numbers from the TNS/Nipo poll:

LPF: 0
D66: 2
SGP: 2
Party for the Animals: 2
ÉénNL: 1

I had it open in a window a minute ago, but now it's gone. Fortunately I got the change to write 'em all down first.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:49:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll update them in the diary now.

Hey! The TNS NIPO results are showcased at the RTL4 website: http://www.rtl.nl/actueel/rtlnieuws/

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:52:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nice. Their news story's still broken though.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:02:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just can't believe so many people still vote CDA. Incredible.
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:32:40 PM EST
Hmm, PvdA, SP, Groen links with CU....I wonder...
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:39:43 PM EST
Pvda-GroenLinks-SP-CU:

NOS: 71
RTL4: 77

IF TNS NIPO has it right, a left coalition with CU is possible.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:44:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hey wait a minute. Is CU not the "women should not vote because we are the crazy peoples party"?

Where do they fit in on the left?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:55:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah I checked the shortlist:

  • Social welfare (similar to SP and PvdA)

  • Green environmental policy

Then there is also:

  • Strong family values

  • Abandonment of softdrugs tolerance, abortion and euthanasia

But I guess in a left wing government they will not get much traction for those questions.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:03:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is the SP/Marijnissen's view of integration and of social policy?

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
by r------ on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:06:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More money for the poor, integration should be forced, etc etc etc...They were a Mao based party...
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:07:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Integration should be forced...

What does this mean?

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:10:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Adopting the French model?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:12:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In one word? Equality.

Social structure is the SP issue - and I wholeheartedly support their plans for the health care and education. But they are very conservative when it comes to foreign policy.

SP has not been too vocal on integration; but does stress public safety.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:10:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So we're talking about an old-line, real Socialist party.

I should think they'd have no trouble in a coalition with the Christian group if they are ideologically what I imagine them to be.

30 seats.

Wow.

Any on the ground thoughts on how this could have happened? Real socialists - not exactly a Dutch tradition, huh?

Recalls '02 in France.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:19:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I met one of their senators during the ESF meeting in Athens. I was impressed: they're realist without being "sold-out", rather skeptical of the EU, but in a reasonable way, and really are a party of what is traditionally considered the Left. Plus they seem to have a grasp of issues that usually transcends that of the rest of the European Left  They're associated with but not members of the European Left party. Their web magazine Spectrezine is excellent and so is its blog.

BTW what are the actual vote percentages?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 07:49:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the SP site: Their history, their positions and their president's book.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 09:51:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree, they are realist, and they have fledged as a party with very good ideas - but I don't agree with their somewhat hostile approach to the EU. Although given the relentless marketista noise coming out of Brussels, who'd blame them.

The actual vote percentages? What do you mean? Do you mean this?

by Nomad on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 10:05:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That link sends me to a copyright notice of sorts when I click on it - it only works when I copy and paste it on the address box... But yes, exactly that. I was weary of their "anti-EUness" as well, but as you say its not that they're lacking in arguments lately...

So 16.6 percent for the "hard" left at least, 21.2 if you count the Green Left... Is this unprecedented?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 10:25:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mmph. NOS copyrights interfere with direct linkage. But at least you saw it.

Unprecedented? I think it is. Look at the historic overview chart (wikipedia), here.  SP and GroenLinks never bumped above 15%, let alone 20%.

This is why I wrote that the polarisation is far from gone...

by Nomad on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 12:04:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you mean by conservative foreign policy?

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
by r------ on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:25:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They basically want to get out of NATO
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:25:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, conservative in a Gaullist sense of the word?

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
by r------ on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:27:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, conservative in the same way pro-labour union democrats are conservative.

Gaullism is right-wing nationalism.

by Trond Ove on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:34:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Confused here.

Pro-labor union Democrats have often been very pro-military, pro-interventionist, were supportive of the war in Vietnam, bled support to the GOP in the Reagan years.

Basically right-nationalist, though this is changing. Is this what we're talking about with the SP?

I always thought of DeGaulle's attitude viz. Nato as the original "third way," between "east" and "west" bloc. Not easily pigeon-holed, in terms of FP, as right-wing, at least relative to the FP pursued in Washington.

 

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:43:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I basically meant conservative in the original sense of the word, and within a certain political culture.
by Trond Ove on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 07:50:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To be even clearer, the socialist party in Norway, SV, was founded in the 1950's based on their opposition to Norwegian membership in NATO. In the last few years, they voted for the NATO war against Serbia. But there are still members of the party critical of both this and NATO membership.

In other words they are Socialist party conservatives. I do not know if this roughly compares to the dutch example here, but I assume so.

by Trond Ove on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 07:57:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It definitely sounds like the same...
by Nomad on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 09:46:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But they're very hostile on legislation coming out of Brussels, think the Dutch financial contribution still hasn't been decreased enough and are suspicious to the opening labour market with the enlargement of Bulgaria and Rumania. Would the descriptor protectionist be justified in this case?
by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:29:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So Balkenende has the first shot at forming a coalition...but how long does he have to do this? I mean, can the coalition you name above say, "Hey, we have the numbers, we are in!!" ?

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:56:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, then all they have to do is tell the Queen, and she has to tell them it's ok.
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:57:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
.. that no coalition is possible which is purely left or right unless the fascists appear itn eh government?

I am waiting the results!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:57:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Prognonses based on 12% counted (in seats, 150 max)
CDA: 44
PvdA: 33
VVD: 22
SP: 25
Groen Links: 7
D66: 3
ChristenUnie: 7
SGP: 2
PvdD: 2
PvdV: 8
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:02:08 PM EST
Sorry, CDA 42 seats, not 44, 42
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:06:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems the next coalition will be at least three parties.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:59:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Who are the two female politicians who try to use that young man as bait to get votes? In the picture in the diary that is?

(Or is it the other way around?)

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:02:14 PM EST
That young man isn't that young and is our prime minister...Blergh. Harry Potter.
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:05:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's our intrepid prime minister Balkenende (he of the Harry Potter fame) cuddled up by two models.

Is it confusing? It's just a wink at the boyish-ness of our prime minister.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:06:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I used to think that the Finnish prime minister is the most boring guy in politics. Then I moved here..

You have a normal feeling for a moment, then it passes. --More--
by tzt (tzt) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:11:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
New Prognoses (based on 22.5%, 150 seats max)
CDA: 40
PVDA: 33
VVD: 28
SP: 25
Fortuyn: 1 (!)
Groen Links: 7
D66: 3
CU: 7
SGP: 2
PvdD: 2
PvdV: 8
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:17:54 PM EST
May I suggest to stop giving mojo at this point? Otherwise these handy updates start zooming upthread and people may lose them in the clutter.

But those results!! VVD comes swinging back... Perhaps it's for the best I'll be an upcoming emigrant...

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:26:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You want me or don't want me to give these updates?
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:32:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Please post these updates!! It works like a charm, I immensely appreciate them!!!

I meant that if other people 4 you (deservedly so!!) your post will zoom up into the older posts - not so good for the overview right now. The thread without any mojo makes it a chronological event.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:38:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Go to Comment Preferences in your User Settings and choose Ignore Ratings. The threads will then be chronological. You can choose the order (oldest first, newest first).

If I understand your comment rightly, that is...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:54:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, you did! I had no idea that option even existed... Thanks for the tip!!

I'll retract my suggestion: mojo Freud for all he deserves...

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:02:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nomad means that you should give updates, but we should stop giving you '4':s as that moves it upwards in the comment section and it is easier if all updates are in the bottom of the page.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:59:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Prognoses after 47,6%

CDA: 40
PVDA: 33
VVD: 22
SP: 25
Groen Links: 7
D66: 3
Christen unie: 6
SGP: 2
PVDD: 2 (Party for animals, my god...)
PVDV: 9
1NL: 1

by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:38:33 PM EST
Do you do these yourself?

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
by r------ on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:46:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nawh, Dutch tv does these projections, you can see them:

http://teletekst.nos.nl/tekst/443-01.html

by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:48:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seats based on 66,9%
CDA: 40
PVDA: 33
VVD: 22
SP: 26
Groen Links: 7
D66: 3
ChristenUnie: 6
SGP: 2
PVDD: 2
PVDV: 9
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:50:48 PM EST
Seats based on 75%
CDA: 41
PVDA: 33
VVD: 22
SP: 25
Groen Links: 7
D66: 3
ChristenUnie: 6
SGP: 2
PVDD: 2
PVDV: 9
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:53:33 PM EST
Could the high SP vote be a vote against a Grand Coalition? (Did Bos and Balkenende gave too obvious signs of aiming for that?)

Wilders gets more than the Greens, bleagh.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:12:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So what coalitions are possible?

If I have understood previous info correctly these parties will not be part of the new government on the basis of being to wierd to be acceptable by those they could form a majority with:

SGP: 2
PVDD: 2
PVDV: 9

So that leaves 137. And what do you need for a majority, 75 or 76? (Basically that is a question of if there is a tie-breaking vote). Are minority governments acceptable in practice?

If I go by my weirdzo rule above, a quick look says that no majority can be formed without either
CDA: 41
or
VVD: 22

but neither can a majority be formed without
PVDA: 33
SP: 25
or
Groen Links: 7

So deal with wierdzos, form a minority government or some form av grand coalition?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:14:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it'll be: CDA/PVDA/Christenunie
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:20:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But this does suggest that negotiation between CDA and SP will bounce. Balkenende practically invited the SP over for the negotiation table on the tv..
by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:27:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
CDA+SP is 67 according to the latest result. So what other party/parties are possible in addition?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:55:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The truth? None.

Only Wilders (impossible) or a cobmination of 2 other parties. ChristenUnie + GroenLinks? ChrisenUnie + D66? It's all pretty hopeless.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:06:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And minority government is out of the question?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:10:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, but not common. I can't even recall that it has been done before, until this year.

67 seats sounds as too little, especially in a partnership of CDA and SP.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:18:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You'll need one more than half, so 76 seats.

CDA is the biggest party - which mean they will lead negotiations
SP is the biggest winner - which mean they will enter coalition negotiations

CDA + SP: 66
CDA + SP + PvdA: 99

The SP will not work with the VVD, that is an impossible triangulation.

Failing the above, I don't know, I don't know... Crazy.

What is clear is that a minority bulwark of CDA and VVD is frankly impossible.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:25:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No way for pvda/sp/cda. That;'s too left for the cda. They'll be in the minority right away.
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:26:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ewwwww.
CDA crowd is yelling "Four More Years" to Balkie in English.

You have a normal feeling for a moment, then it passes. --More--
by tzt (tzt) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 04:59:24 PM EST
Sometimes the people get the leader they deserve... Balkenende is made for CDA members. CDA luuuuuurves the Republicans.
by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:04:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just saw Wilders' speech.

And NOW I really feel as filth again.

Retch.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:13:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is it fair to assume that the Fortuyn vote simply transferred to Wilders?

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
by r------ on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:23:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
9 seats for Wilders!?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:06:15 PM EST
At the moment Wilders is frothing against Islam on tv..

You have a normal feeling for a moment, then it passes. --More--
by tzt (tzt) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:07:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You start wondering if this this man be prosecuted for hate mongering. Holy shit.
by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:17:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He's probably need to have his parliamentary immunity lifted by the parliament, right?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:48:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Btw, I guess that all this boils down to one thing.

Piratenpartij Nederland will debut in the next election.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:20:05 PM EST
Prognoses  (based on 84,6%, 150 seats max)
CDA: 41
PVDA: 33
VVD: 22
SP: 25
Groen Links: 7
D66: 3
ChristenUnie: 6
SGP: 2
PVDD: 2
PVDV(Wilders): 9
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:21:18 PM EST
Prognoses  (based on 90%, 150 seats max)
CDA: 41
PVDA: 33
VVD: 22
SP: 25
Groen Links: 7
D66: 3
ChristenUnie: 6
SGP: 2
PVDD: 2
PVDV(Wilders): 9

I think this is it...

by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:33:51 PM EST
err..
Prognoses  (based on 94,3%, 150 seats max)
CDA: 41
PVDA: 32
VVD: 22
SP: 26
Groen Links: 7
D66: 3
ChristenUnie: 6
SGP: 2
PVDD: 2
PVDV(Wilders): 9
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:34:48 PM EST
Turnout is reported at 80,1%, which is slightly higher than the last elections.

Rouvoet of the small conservative-but-social ChristenUnie has already called for a CDA/PvdA/ChristenUnie coalition.

Looking at the results, this will probably be the only real option. Little can change now, although the PvdA might still get one/two more seats once the results from Amsterdam are in.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:48:08 PM EST
It's already in, and they lost another, see post above yours.
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:51:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right. It's going to be difficult for the PvdA to step into a coalition with this kind of loss.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:59:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
96,8% counted, i think maybe 1 seat might still change:
CDA: 41
PvdA: 32
VVD: 22
SP: 26
Groen Links: 7
D66: 3
ChristenUnie: 6
SGP: 2
PvdD: 2
PvdV: 9
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:58:02 PM EST
It seems that the before-last poll was pretty precise, save for PvdA and Wilders. This is rather shocking. Could it be that "hiding" Wilders voters pretended to be Labour voters before pollsters? Or worse, that Wilders drew away Labour voters?

Also, that graph at the end of Nomad's diary shows a pretty consistent trend of voters changing from Labour to Socialists in the last days, those who faltered apparently regained their confidence in this change of preference. What might have been the reason of theser two trends?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:10:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, PvdA became once again a victim of a surging political party: it was Fortuyn in 2002, and now SP. What is their problem in protecting "their" votes?

I was not following Dutch politics at all lately. Could it be that Bos campaigning was too populistic, too sound-byte oriented? For serious progressive politics, doing what you can in keeping the political discourse more intelligent than simplistic is important, especially when your referrence frame is actually rather empty and not resonating with the public.

Funny still: like Clinton-Gore administration in the 90'ies, PvdA under Wim Kok did not do much wrong, for most individual voters as well. Yet they seem to be destined for years of relative oblivion somehow, even if "other" ruling party is more dissapointing (arguably or not).

by das monde on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 09:50:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think at least two things were at hand.

  1. The PvdA campaign approach. Bos already had some of a reputation of a turncoat and a wishy-washy, and his campaign did not help to dispel that. CDA came out swinging (unexpectedly harsh even), and PvdA cowered. It shouldn't have happened: PvdA got hammered by the VVD earlier. Every politician was terrible in its sound-bites, Rutte and Balkenende as bad or worse than Bos (in my opinion).

  2. Secondly, the strategic vote. PvdA decided they could take on the CDA alone by its own strength. Time and again Bos was asked for his favourite coalition parties - he never answered it, leading to a growing unrest he'd just as well pick CDA over the other left parties. And people who detest Balkenende's policy saw already happening Balkenende still would return to the government - so they moved further left: to the SP. To no avail, in the end, but there you have it. Some 25% of previous PvdA voters went into the SP vote.
by Nomad on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 10:14:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So PvdA+GL+SP+D66+CU+PvdD = 76

It won't be a coalition but at least it's able to block xenophobe policies.

by Indrah on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:18:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That;s unworkable, and also, i don't really like CU. They want to ban abortion, euthanesia and gay marriage. And if they go into the coalition, they'll want one of those three things gone. I don't want that. Ever.
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:20:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, missread, nm my comment :-)
by Freud (freud@freudie.org) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:21:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't like CU either, for the reasons you specified. The best I can hope for is, I guess: CDA+PvdA+GL
by Indrah on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:39:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There should be a drinking game. Take a large gulp every time Wilders says "half miljoen mensen" and you'll be happily intoxicated in no time. And then, hopefully, he'll be just a bleached blur on the tv.

You have a normal feeling for a moment, then it passes. --More--
by tzt (tzt) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:31:21 PM EST
Thanks everyone for pitching in, Freud especially, Nanne, tzt, everyone else.

An election not as bizarre as in 2002 or 2003, but certainly not an ordinary pre-Fortuyn one. As I observed before, polarisation is still on the march squeezing at the centre. The rise of Wilders shows that the "spirit of Fortuyn" and the belly populism still has not come to an end in this country, whatever the foreign press writes.

Basing myself on the surprisingly candid late-night chat between the party-leaders, I think that a CDA-SP-PvdA coalition will actually first be considered. Failing that, a CDA-PvdA-ChristenUnie is the best alternative or we spiral into a maddening four-parties coalition. No one wants that - March 2007 are elections for the Senate.

Whatever happens, people voted in favour for a more social policy. The left "bloc" is marginally larger than the right "bloc".

Left- PvdA+SP+GroenLinks+D66+AnimalParty+CU= 32+26+7+3+2+6 = 76
Right- CDA+VVD+SGP+Wilders =41+22+2+9=74

More sane thoughts in the morning.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:58:13 PM EST
Now you need a political compass diagram based on the vote percentages... you have the R code ;-)

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:59:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Visuals would have been incredibly useful now... But I simply spaced out since this afternoon. The political junkee took over, even when I didn't wanna.

I understand the coding and am able to tweak it. It's just putting the shoulder behind the wheel now. I'll post the result in another diary/update on the coalition negotiation.

by Nomad on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 07:05:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks Nomad & everyone! Let's see what the results'll feel like after a good night's sleep..

You have a normal feeling for a moment, then it passes. --More--
by tzt (tzt) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 07:03:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks to everyone, especially you, for the coverage and explanations!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 03:49:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes!! A big thanks to everyone who ran this thread...really interesting! Thank you and kudos!!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 04:12:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Some random thoughts that came to me:

  • Should the SP be part of the government, that may be the end of their steep upward trend. They are a protest/populist party, and so far have been able to give their view from the left without having to compromise. If they become part of the government, they will have to defend the compromises they made to their voters next time around, which is much harder for them (since, comparitively, they will have to compromise the most).

  • I don't think the CU will try to go for abolishing abortion, gay marriage or euthanasia. Only the Christian parties would support that, and they are in the clear minority. As such, the CU can't possibly put those on the table. Perhaps they might try for stricter rules on abortion or euthanasia, but that's also a hard sell. Of course, I wonder what the CU would want to "score" on then, if they enter a CDA-PvdA-CU coalition.

  • Given that 4-party coalitions are a really bad idea, and a minority coalition is an even worse one in this environment, it will have to be CDA+PvdA + either CU or SP. No government without both CDA and PvdA is possible. That means that they hold the best cards. I think it will basically come down to the CDA trying hard to get the CU in, and the PvdA trying hard to get the SP in.

  • Predicted formation time: 5 months.
by Frank (wijsneus-aht-gmail-doht-com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 07:48:11 PM EST
5 months!?!?!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 04:13:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Last time, it was four months.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 04:21:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
SP governance: could be. But they don't do that poor in the counties where they are now in the city council. Of course, perhaps disillusion hasn't set in yet?

Rouvoet (CU) has the most intersting position this time, especially failing SP negotiations. Now let us see how sincere he truly is with power at his grasp (because he's perhaps one of the the most sincere politicians we have).

I'm still hoping on a SP-CDA-PvdA coalition, but I agree with your analysis of the of CDA & PvdA preferences. Your predicted formation time: not so sure, with another upcoming election at hand?? But it may take so long, if people get stubborn...

by Nomad on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 10:21:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the SP has been doing well in city councils. But, local politics is quite different.

For example, there has always been a number of local parties that don't even exist at the national level, and can't make the jump to the national level very well (like the "Leefbaar" parties).

Local elections are a different kind of game, more different kinds of coalitions are possible, issues are easier.

by Frank (wijsneus-aht-gmail-doht-com) on Thu Nov 23rd, 2006 at 11:49:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... and we thought that nothing could change.

One seat jumps from the SP to the PvdA, SP gets 25 seats and PvdA 33 seats. I changes nothing in the larger picture of things, but just so that it's noted.

See the NRC: 'SP verliest zetel ten gunste van PvdA'

The shift is due to an 'adjustment' in Eindhoven as well as the expat vote sent through letters (1/3rd of the expats voted by letter ballot, 2/3rds by computer voting).

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Nov 24th, 2006 at 09:52:49 AM EST
And changed in the final results. :)
by Nomad on Fri Nov 24th, 2006 at 04:27:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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