Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 10:23:16 AM EST
I know I know.. I owe you a diary about my computer world. You may know that my computer at work still does not work properly.. yeah... lucky I have my laptop.. It will be hilarious..
I also know that I must do a diary about transport of goods in Spain and the Spanish dependence on oil... to start-up the public communications campaign in Spain about it (well at least some kind of draft we will be able to send around.. and pass around).. I google it on my free time. Promise.
But today it is time for something completely different. We and polonium...
As you may know I do not like to talk across the pond.. I just typically feel that I do not have the right or the time or the knowledge or the.. whatever.. I just do not feel like it. or just do not care.. I am not sure.. Of course.. when there is something about anthropology or biophysics I really have to take a deep breath and a cold shower.. no no no.. I should not do that... Once I cross posted at Booman one diary about politics and anthropology.. I am still not sure about it... but one thing is anthropology and biophysics and another completely different thing is physics.. for godsake I just can not shut up.. damned.
So If you cross the pond, around the Booman area there is a Putin and spies debunking diary...
And here is my comment edited diary about it….
I may agree with soj that it is very difficult to know what exactly happened.. after all, this is a spy novel in real time.. or so it seems. There is no way to know what really happened unless you were involved.. and maybe, with a little bit of luck if you are a british officer in charge of the investigation.
That said, there are serious flaws and mistakes in soj’s argument (I am sure he is acting in good faith, but other people could say that he was distorting information).
Soj has very good arguments to state that there is no proof that Putin did it, I think he is absolutely right. But he has two arguments to enforce that they DID not do it. The "why he was not killed before?" and the ""it is a big lie, no way it could be Polonium" argument. Both completely wrong.
Saying that he was not killed before is actually not argument, it is a rhetoric phallacy. It is not serious, or at least it does not sound serious. In Italy, judges were killed by the mafia, but not immediately, not at the moment they became dangerous, but much more later. When Borsellino was killed was well after he had managed to put in prison large chunks of the mafia.. something like 5 years for the first attempt and another 10 (roughly.. deGondi knows) to really make it. Killing someone takes time.. specially if there are protection services around.
Besides, we just do not know when or where he may have became dangerous to Putin or Russian mafia or whoever. This does not mean than Putin did it... but in no way shows that they have nothing to do.. actually , they do have something to do, at least because the murdered says so.... of course he may be lying... that's what spies, ex-spies, and political or mafia friends of Berezoski do or may do. We just do not know.. but as an argument for saving Putin.. no way.
Now for the serious flaws in the second argument: Polonium. Here soj is really off the park. I do not know if he is physicist or works in the nuclear business.. but his data is particularly accurate in some aspects but completely wrong in others. Either he really has no knowledge and got some bits of information here and there without any criteria or he just knows about it and just writes false information. And this is basically his main argument against the Russian government implication.. when this falls, the rest also falls down.. and I repeat ad nauseam, I am not saying that Putin or the FSB did it.. I am stating that you can not say that they did not do it.
So, let me set the record straight.
Yes Polonium is very difficult to obtain.. it is not that difficult in the sense that there are a lot of people that could get it.. but they should be very well connected with the nuclear industry. Actually, some break of security is probably the most probable source.
NO, you do not need the low level of milligrams you say to kill a person. You can have much more. Actually, a standard protection you can build on your own house is enough to make it completely save for you to carry it... and put it later whenever you want. When we physicist talk about mortal danger, and kcurie dose etc.. we always alarm more than necessary because, well, if you get an overdose.. the results are alarming. You can safely put the polonium you want in any food... not eat it.. be around for an hour or two.. and nothing will happen to you (if he'd know how much the great Madame C took it and how long she lived, she was a goodness in disguise with ultra powers.. really.. everybody around was dead and she was happy .. for quite a long time)
On the other hand, if you have ingested this quantity of Polonium you will die for sure, there will be traces of radioactivity in any body fluid. Furthermore.. you would become a constant source.. so if anything is very close to you, depending on the dose, it might not be safe to be close to the victim for more than a day.. so, if Polonium was found or radioactivity was found in the body, all nurses and doctors will be checked up..and put on prevention.. not very much they can do about it (actually take the pill.. the I pill)
Also autopsy could become a problem depending on the level of radioactivity, doctors will have to use protection to check the level or radiation with the body open and try to compute the quantity of the substance...I guess we will be hearing about that for a long time..
And of course.. if radioactive traces are found .. all the places where he stayed for more than half a day will be checked to know the level of radioactivity..I am sure British authorities will be on it...
Summing up, killing someone with Polonium is perfectly possible, and a FSB or Putin murder is perfectly possible... this does not mean that there will be any proof in the future... their best hope is tracking the source of Polonium, as you say, it is not that easy to get.. .but knowing the dose and guessing the origin is their best chance right now.
Well I still remember when I measured radioactivity and protections in the physics lab for the first time… it is amazing how well lead works… concrete is fine but the guy in charge of Polonium would have need around a meter thick (probably)…Oh those radioactive days….
And that was it.. but there are a lot of others things you may know around here. Was a break in security absolutely necessary to get the polonium? is there any source to get it that I can not think of? And what about the best way to get it…where exactly, at which point of the process, any bets?
I also have more questions about possible hints….. please come around with any idea or answer you may have!!!