Germany's new unemployment numbers are looking good

by jandsm Fri Dec 1st, 2006 at 04:46:36 AM EST

The HAZ has the November numbers of the German job market: From October to November 2006, the number of unemployed persons shrank by around 100.000 compared to October and fell below the 4. Mio mark. This is a decrease by more than 500.000 compared to Nov. 2005.

In the German labour market, such a development is highly unlikely. Only twice in the last 12 years did the unemployment rate fall from October to November: 2005 (25.000) and 1994 (17.000).

The Spiegel and the Bild Zeitung also publish other great news: According to a study by Postbank research, the German Economy will grow by 3.4 percent in the last quarter compared to Oct.-Dec. 2005. This would put the German Economy ahead of the U.S. (2.9%), the U.K. (2.8%), Canada (2.5 %), Italy (2.4 %) and France (2.3%).

And now just a gut feeling from living here: I do not believe people are shopping more because of the VAT increase in January. It is not a big topic.

From the diaries - whataboutbob

Germany's new unemployment numbers are looking good | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Germany's new unemployment numbers are looking (none / 1)

the German Economy will grow by 3.4 percent in the last quarter compared to Oct.-Dec. 2005

This is a decrease by more than 500.000 [unemployed persons] compared to Nov. 2005.

==>

GDP has become deficient as a measure of long-term economic health in our resource-driven, globalizing world.
(from Good numbers gone bad [via Green Net National Product])

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 03:30:52 AM EST

Re: Germany's new unemployment numbers are looking (none / 0)

jandsm, sorry i had totally misread your diary. i read "unemployment" as "employment". please ignore the above comment (i wish i could delete it.)

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 09:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

unemployment numbers are looking good (none / 0)

I always appreciate hearing news from Germany...especially good economic news. At first you confused me though with...

In the German labour market, such a development is highly unlikely. Only twice in the last 12 years did the unemployment rate fall from October to November: 2005 (25.000) and 1994 (17.000).

as I thought you were saying this couldn't be true...but I assume you were actually saying "its this rare that its this good..." (which makes more sense in the context you were speaking). Thanks for this timely update!!

And by the way, jandsm, how's life as a politician? I've been curious as can be to hear more about your experiences...hope all is going well!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 08:21:24 AM EST

it is busy.... (4.00 / 2)

...I took over all committee duties concerning education, social policies and health services. So I have to work a lot to get competent in these issues. Additionally, I have to teach myself how to read a budget draft. But it es great fun, yet time consuming.

I'll write about it when I get a break. I believe we should start to look at chances of progressives at the local level, too. There is a lot that can be done.

by jandsm on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 10:38:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: unemployment numbers are looking good (none / 0)

<quote>In the German labour market, such a development is highly unlikely. Only twice in the last 12 years did the unemployment rate fall from October to November: 2005 (25.000) and 1994 (17.000).</quote>

Aren't German data seasonalized to avoid the effect of seasonal unemployment (more people work in the summer because of tourism and agriculter, etc...), making the date of this good numbers non-important?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Dec 1st, 2006 at 10:24:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: unemployment numbers are looking good (none / 0)

Both seasonally corrected and 'bare' data are published, I suspect this is a seasonal data.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Dec 1st, 2006 at 11:03:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Germany's new unemployment numbers are (none / 0)

The VAT increase is one possibility for underlying factor, there might also be statistical effects. I am awaiting some deeper analysis before I believe the upturn is really sharp (and broad) -- for example, I noticed recently that the official German unemployment numbers and those made according to OECD norms evolved very differently.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 04:59:12 PM EST

Re: Germany's new unemployment numbers are (none / 1)

If you want some other news: there were 2 pages todays in a local newspaper, explaining how good it is for employment and where the new jobs are. Short : in many places, even in traditional sector (metallurgy) and not especially PHD. One picture was of automotive line assembly workers...
Granted, it is in Bavaria, not the worst going bit of Germany. But surprising anyway.

La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.

by lacordaire on Fri Dec 1st, 2006 at 11:37:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Germany's new unemployment numbers are looking (4.00 / 2)

The 0.02 euros question is: how many of those 100 000 unemployed went to the inactive category (no job but no longer part of the active population) and how much to the employed category...

by Laurent GUERBY on Fri Dec 1st, 2006 at 04:49:08 AM EST

Improving, yes! But good,,,,not yet. (none / 0)

Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that unemployment is improving in Germany (also France)--maybe even say great progress is being made, or the picture is encouraging?

the OECD shows the unemployment statistics for the latest month available, which is September, and Germany shows a drop to 8.7% from 9.4% in September of the previous year. (France also shows a similar decrease from 10% to 8.9%.)

So positive on the direction, on the progress--certainly. But regardless of all the machinations on the numbers, unemployment just under 9% is certainly not good.

by wchurchill on Sat Dec 2nd, 2006 at 03:07:53 AM EST

Germany's new unemployment numbers are looking good | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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Germany's new unemployment numbers are looking good

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